RolStoppable said:
The three charts combined show ~12.5m through week 47. The following slide states "sell-through surpasses 13 million" and comes with an asterisk that excludes the rest of the world. Explain that. |
can you take pic of where it said that, i can't see it.
They are changing the sales of the Switch daily, better to put soon the total that Nintendo announced.
Prediction: Nintendo Switch 2 sells 18 million until the end of 2025
RolStoppable said:
I wasn't talking about what you said, I was citing what's in Nintendo's briefing. |
yea i'm saying do you a have pic of that in the nintendo briefing.
RolStoppable said:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180201_2e.pdf It's the first slide on page 3. I can't extract images from the PDF, so you will have to click the link. |
The graph part never mentions 13 million, the 13 million announcement says ※ Does not include sell-through in some regions, including Asia and Latin America. key word here is some regions.
RolStoppable said:
When it's written like that, then Asia and Latin America aren't the only excluded regions. If it were only those two, it would read "Does note include sell-through in Asia and Latin America", because "some regions" would be redundant in the sentence. But even if you want to insist that Asia and Latin America are the only excluded regions, there wouldn't be much left. North America, Europe and Japan were explicitly mentioned prior to the 13m sell-through slide. Latin America and Asia were explicitly mentioned as being excluded. What's left to account for the missing ~0.5m is Africa and Australia/Oceania. It's safe to say that Africa is an itty bitty tiny market at best and one has to wonder if Nintendo has actually any official Switch presence there. So... did Switch sell through ~500k in Australia, New Zealand and small islands? |
It's most likely the graph is till week 47, but the 13 million is the most recent number, probably as of the 30 it actually states that in there announcement
"Nintendo Switch was released in March of last year and surpassed the cumulative global sell-through milestone of 10 million units in early December. The number now exceeds 13 million. The results for the first holiday season exceeded our expectations."
There's no way there were 2m+ in transit or sitting in stores, especially during the holiday period. Japan is almost constantly out of stock while everywhere else, from what i've heard can't keep them on shelves long enough!
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RolStoppable said:
Two questions arise here: 1. Is it realistic that Switch sold 500k units in week 48? 2. A presentation is prepared several days in advance. This one used Media Create as a source, hence why the Japanese chart cuts off at week 47 and doesn't include the numbers of week 48 that were released about half a day before Nintendo's briefing. Is it realistic that Nintendo showed charts up until week 47 and only moments later added another week of sales? Naturally, this question directs you towards question 1 again. The reason why the numbers never quite add up is because of ambiguity. This doesn't mean that Nintendo is lying to investors, but rather that there is no definitive answer to how much Switch has sold through by the end of 2017 or by the end of Switch's week 47. I have an idea where the missing 500k units are coming from. |
famitsu chart has switch at 3.67 million as of jan 28, getting sell through numbers just needs 2 day in advance, as we can see from sony and nintedo sell through numbers report, could switch have sold 300k in 9 days in all of europe, and north america, of course it could have.
| trunkswd said: I'm trying to figure a good estimate for the end of 2017 for the Switch before I make more adjustments. Though from what I am seeing it needs to be adjusted down a little more. Though, having so much stock on store shelves and in transit seems a little odd after the holiday season when it is nearly sold out in Japan. |
its really strange nintendo, nintedo has been sold out in japan the whole month of JAN, there reports state they shipped 3.72 million shipped as of december 31, yet as of jan 28 famistu has 3.67 million sold, and media create 3.57 units sold. you guys had the numbers much closer the first time, no way nintedo sold through 3 million units that fast, we have npd numbers that also back this up. from nov 26-till the 30 of December nintendo sold 1.5 million, nintendo anounced 10 million as of december 10, that 30 days of the holiday shopping period for december npd, at least 14 days not included in the 10 million announcement, you do the math. also sony regularly announces sold through near shipping dates, the numbers range from 2-3 million shipped over sold.
Last edited by quickrick - on 01 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
You should save yourself the time to make adjustments when there is no conclusive proof and you argue with yourself in the span of two sentences. |
its not perfect but its most logical explanation, also this, Considering that all 3 regions seem to be dead on halfway between the million marks (.5m) it seems likely the numbers were rounded to the nearest half million when making the graphs. but in the report they clearly say as of now, and from what i know, now only has one meaning.
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