Believe me, it IS true. DVD's are copies way to much, an the profit on a dvd is too because of the low price. And on top of that, Distributors want you to buy the same stuff again, but then in BD. Just as your dad bought CD versions of his Elvis EP's.

 They did the same thing with VHS. They start with some movies, and gradually shift focus. The industry NEEDS a new, bigger disk format to make more profit than the previous year. So they use this strategy, and stay under the radar of the average Joe. But believe me, Sony hater or not, one day there WILL be a blu-ray player in your home.

And for all you pirates, BD is a real bitch to copy. Downloading 50 gig? The BD writer is expensive, as are the blank disks, and even if you manage all that, you still have find a way to mod chip your BD player AND tv. Yes, through HDMI, your TV will refuse copies BD disks.

Blu-ray is the thing that will make Sony win this war, AND the next one.  As MS will have to use it in its 360 successor. And wil pay royalties to Sony for every console and piece of software sold.

Game Over for MS, believe me. 

EaglesEye:

Argue away!

Maybe my PS3 prospects are a bit too positive, but this year PS3 has outsold 360 every week (though not by big margins) while it's still more expensive and 360 even had a pretty big price cut in Europe.

PS3 has some pretty big games like MGS4, GT5 and FF13, which won't be its saviour, but will probably give it quite some sales (just look at GT5P sales in Europe).

But Sony first has to close a pretty significant gap and 360 proved to be a tough competitor to PS3, and I think that PS3 will never beat 360 in the US, the problem for Microsoft is outside the US. It just doesn't seem to take off there.

But like I said earlier, even if PS3 beats 360 in total sales, that's not a big problem for Microsoft (only for the fanboys).

I was about to start a "Crunch time for the 360" thread, but saw this one just in time...

...

Its too early to say whether the 360 *is* in trouble - but its definitely crunch time for the console.

The main advantage it has over its rival (the PS3) is price. The PS3 is more reliable, has more anticipated titles (although the 360 possibly has more good titles coming), is a BluRay player, links to the PSP, "should" be more powerful (in the long term), will have a wider range of games (including better casual titles).

The recent price cuts in Europe have done little - although its definitely still early days.

If sales of the PS3 keep pace (or beat) the 360 through a price cut - its a terrible sign for the 360. It may simply come down to who has deeper pockets (and MS definitely does), although if the 360 division goes into the red heavily AGAIN - people won't be as forgiving as before.

Its still 3 weeks before GTA hits, and their won't be a lot of movement before it does. But when it does - it will be like a tidal wave. In many ways, everything up to now was positioning both consoles to be attractive to GTA4 purchasers.

MS needs a *strong* victory with GTA (sustained higher software & hardware sales) to really drag this generation out. And the legs will be critically important. I think you'll be able to view trends between the 360/PS3 by the weekly ratio of GTA sales on both platforms.

...

In short - we stand before a crucial point in this generation. A win (or at least match) by the 360 will drag the generation out, and really make it a successful generation for MS.

A heavy loss, or slight loss leading to worsening losses over time - would spell disaster for MS. PS3 sales will accelerate, which in turn could lead to the worst possible outcome for MS - companies will start leading development on the PS3 (even with a lower install base), leading to better PS3 builds - and weakening 360 builds (which in turn accelerates the process).

In the meantime 360 keeps selling software really well - but to the same "hardcore/PC" crowd over and over again.

By Jan/Feb '09, the 360 could be considered "dead". And who knows what that could lead too...

somehow i see when the ps3 overtakes the xbox360 we will hear about the xstation

@shams

Great post, except for that inconsistency. So are you saying an outright win will drag this generation or even a match will drag this generation?

And the signs are already very bright for that conclusion (although I would hardly call this a drag) if you look at GTA4 pre-orders across the world, especially in NA.

Shams:

Personally I feel that every single copy of GTA4 sold for 360 is an absolute victory for Microsoft. It's a slap in the face for Sony. It also prevents Sony from an extreme boost in console sales. I think without a 360 GTA4 version PS3 could have seen at least 2 million extra consoles sold.

I think it's way too dramatic to assume that the 360 could be dead by Jan 2009. Even when hardware sales decline dramatically (there's no sign to that, currently the track higher than last year) the software sales are heroic.

Like I said above, Microsoft doesn't need to beat the PS3 to be successful.

Hey Rock On, you think the PS3 will outsell the Wii for the rest of the year? After all, for the PS3 to reach 27m, it'd have to start selling faster than the Wii, starting today, for the rest of the year.

Yes, they did. Microsoft said the second generation of the Xbox will be their profitable generation, and only the first generation would fail to be profitable.

Do you really think MS pitched the "we're going to wait more than a decade before releasing our first profitable product, and should actually recover our investment in 16-22 years, at which point we will start becoming profitable overall" strategy to their investors? That's ridiculous: MS pitched the "we'll be generating huge profits six or seven years from now" strategy to investors.

Have you actually crunched any of the math on these numbers to see what kind of sales you'd need weekly in order to reach those goals? They're not unrealistic, they're impossible. 

I guess I've seen so many ridiculous and silly claims from PS3 fanboys, almost all of which have been completely wrong, for so long now that I've become jaded toward it.  Whenever I hear somebody state that the PS3 is only 8 or 9 months from domination, I assume they're joking, because Sony fanboys have become the butt of that joke.

It appears the sleeping giant has awakened:

http://n4g.com/News-133349.aspx


I am not saying the 360 is finished, but MS definitely has two very capable and currently successful competitors right now. MS really has to pick up it's game if they are to compete successfully in 2008 forwards.

Success in my mind is not being the Gamecube of this gen, even though they will sell more units than the XBOX1. I would be curious to k now what "success" means to MS right now...

WiiSports is a system seller.