😆

The three major video game markets are still Japan, Europe (as a whole) and the US. That's been the case in previous generations and is the same here. The problem is these "other regions" aren't big enough to make up any difference. Another historical example: the Master System actually sold well in South America, but the Master System was still crushed globally by the NES. Selling better in two of the three regions means you'll outsell the other system worldwide. The only way I can see the PS4 outselling the Switch is if the margin is razor thin, and I don't see that happening. Switch is the fastest selling system in the US and is selling faster than the PS2 in Japan (which sales are similar to the DS's). The gap will be too great for Europe and a bunch of other smaller countries making up the difference. It's also clear Nintendo is planning to expand into S. Korea, Hong Kong and China so I doubt we can look at PS4 outselling Switch world wide because of some smaller countries. 

Well first, PS4 is going to have to make up two gaps: US and Japan. That's the reason PS4 won't beat out Switch. Because consoles are momentum driven and the Switch has stronger momentum than the PS4, Switch will outsell it in those regions. Regardless, let's look at Japan.

In about the systems's 4th year, PS4 has sold about 5 million systems in Japan. The system won't be able to break 10 million LTD. The Switch has already sold at least half of that in a single year. Right now, the 3DS has sold 23 million in Japan. If we assume that the Switch sells less (which is dumb and I'll say why in a minute), then the Switch will sell about 20 million LTD in that region. This means, at a minimum, PS4's European sales will have to make up a gap of 10 million plus any gap that comes out of the US. But this is assuming the Switch is closer to 3DS sales than it is to DS sales. The PS2 sold about 23 million units. So Switch could easily sell 25 million units if the pace continues (and given the shortages of even games, I don't see it slowing). The reason the 3DS is selling faster is that it was the successor to the most successful system in Japan. The Switch didn't take off for a few months in Japan like it did in the US because Zelda is less popular there. Once Mario Kart and Splatoon came out, the system became sold out. So when you compare those two systems, a life to date tracking is going to be off because the Switch started slower and ramped up while the 3DS started strong and then fizzled out (which is why the price cut). 

The idea that PS4 will still outsell Switch is a lack of understanding of simple arithmetic and wishful thinking. In order for PS4 to outsell Switch, the difference in European sales needs to be greater than the difference in both US sales and Japan sales. And Switch isn't doing too bad in Europe as its selling about the same as it is in the US (based on Nintendo earnings releases). Moreover, Europe is not this magical sales region. If you look at historical sales, the best selling systems sold about the same in Europe and the US. PS4 is selling about the same in the US as it is in Europe (only about 3 million off). So no, it's not going to happen.

It's selling because....It's a great concept, Nintendo fans don't have to buy both a handheld and home console like in previous gens , and hardcore fans have always wanted a console like experience on the go and it's the first time it's been executed properly. It suits so many different play styles and fits around people's lifestyle choices. It's not just Nintendo fans snapping it up, which I have witnessed first hand. I have friends and relatives that are XBox and PlayStation enthusiasts who have all bought Switch systems because shock horror Nintendo have made hardware that actually excites and appeals to them. I know at least 15 non Nintendo gamers ( im from the UK, there are many) who have picked this up. Many professional athletes have a Switch which is great free promotion when their tweeting about it. Let's just say that there are no reasons Switch is doing well other than Nintendo got it right. It's good for the industry and folk should give credit where it's due.

PS4 reaching 35M in USA would already be quite good, but yes Switch outselling PS4 in USA is possible outcome.

So do you think stores tried to have less profits by not giving Nintendo shelf space? Odd.

I laughed a lot at this =]

Companies can't publically lie like that... They may as much narrow the point to its most favorable portion.

And in UK Fifa18 marketshare for Switch was 1%, so Switch will be a flop?

No man, PS4 is not only winning in Europe, it also wins on RotW, in case you may not remember they still count.

Case in point, PS4 reached 10M 1 week faster than Switch.

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

Nope you were also saying it would sell more WW because it is selling more in Japan and USA.

Yes and Switch launched selling out for over 6 months so launching in Holiday wouldn't have grow the sales since there wouldn't be any supply, but I won't do another lenght discussion on this.

At this moment it is more likely for PS4 to sell over 130M and Switch 100M than the opposite, but good luck on that.

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Mario and Zelda have extremely high attachment rates. If you compare them between Europe and US, in EU they're signficantly higher. That could be looked at that in EU, mostly Zelda/Mario/Nintendo fans bought a Switch, whereas in the US the Switch got through to a larger crowd (although the contrary to that is, that they didn't buy Zelda/Mario, but want other games). Additionaly, this can also mean that, as games are tied to physical discs, sharing them is very simple, and therefore limits software sales.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

Chances that Switch will outsell Ps4 WW is just slim. First it's very unlikely it will even outsell the ps4 in US (lifetime). The console in it's third year will likely start to fizzle out because of no third-party support. It will probably get some japanese support but basically 0 % from western developers (maybe some indie support and a AAA game). The console hardware performance is just to low to get support. 

Even if it beat the ps4 in US it will be with a small margin and won't make up for the big loss in Europe.

Third Switch aren't beating the Wii in sales and PS4 will easily beat it. Will sell at a minimun 110+ million but will probably reach 130+ million.

The PS4 has very strong sales in pretty much every markets.

The XBOX brand selling more in US is not a very good comparation imo. The 360 had good sales in Europe, but was dead in Japan and was selling very low in the rest of the world.

Overall, Nintendo is a mix of the 2. Nintendo does not good in every markets of the world like Sony does, but has not only one or two good markets like the XBOX brand has.

Nintendo does not good in small markets, which are pretty much dominated by Sony, however, in pretty much almost every important markets, Nintendo and this case Switch sells very good, this include:

• Japan
• United State
• Canada
• France
• Germany
• Spain
• Italy

That said, people in this site keep talking about Europe, but that's surely not the main reason. I would like to remember that the DS outsold PS2 in a lot of important markets, yes, even Europe markets.

If we talk about Japan, America and Europe, there was no way for PS2 to outsell DS. The only reason why PS2 is over DS, is because other smaller markets, which in the end made the difference, indeed PS2 is over DS by a very slighly margin.

And to be honest, i think this is the case for PS4/Switch. America+Japan+Europe, no shit. Switch will most likely outsell PS4.

In Japan Switch is gonna sell 3DS like numbers, aka 25 million or more, PS4 will be lucky to sell 10 million (probabily less) , so >15 million gap in Japan are very likely. America (pretty much all, but expecially USA and Canada) will increase this gap even more, probabily to >20 million.

PS4 is not gonna outsell Switch by over 20 million in Europe. If PS4 outsell Switch, it will be thanks the rest of the word. People just underestimate way too much those markets, PS console many times sold 20/25 million in markets outside of America/Europe/Japan, which is not a tiny number, that's the real Switch challenge, not the Europe.

Well, of course better sales in Europe from Switch would help....

There's no need to worry about that, Nintendo has lots of big franchises. Pokémon, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing and Super Smash Bros are all bigger than Zelda. By the time all of these have released, we'll probably already be getting the next Zelda and Mario Kart.