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Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Considering the Switch "seems" to be on a similar sales trajectory to the PS4, i guess i can have a bash at a prediction. Counting out the N64, GC and Wii u as these weren't on the same trajectory at all, i can only use the Wii and 3/DS as historical sales barometers. From this standpoint it appears Nintendo consoles peak higher but fall faster than Sony consoles. Using a hc trajectory i can see the Switch outselling the PS4 for a period but then dropping faster. So, in short i would predict Switch doing 85-115m sales LT but with the PS4, longevity would probably ensure sales of at least 125m, top end possibly even 150m. Of course it's early days and there could be so many variables. Switch could follow a path closer to the DS and reach 150m LT but i think that's unlikely. Nintendo do appear to support HH's longer but even then, they don't hesitate to pull the plug when they feel it's no longer financially viable. I know, to some this seems too early. Anyway, this is an extremely early prediction and i know so many things can change but one thing i think is pretty clear is that the Switch will have no problem overtaking the 3DS LT comfortably.

I remember the days that anyone remotely thinking PS4 could reach PS2 numbers were called crazy here... but this year a lot of people are thinking the realm of PS2 (130+M) is possible.

Ive always said since PS2+XB & PS3+360 did similar numbers that PS4+XBO would likely sell in the same range so about 170-180 million combined.



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peachbuggy said:

Considering the Switch "seems" to be on a similar sales trajectory to the PS4, i guess i can have a bash at a prediction. Counting out the N64, GC and Wii u as these weren't on the same trajectory at all, i can only use the Wii and 3/DS as historical sales barometers. From this standpoint it appears Nintendo consoles peak higher but fall faster than Sony consoles. Using a hc trajectory i can see the Switch outselling the PS4 for a period but then dropping faster. So, in short i would predict Switch doing 85-115m sales LT but with the PS4, longevity would probably ensure sales of at least 125m, top end possibly even 150m. Of course it's early days and there could be so many variables. Switch could follow a path closer to the DS and reach 150m LT but i think that's unlikely. Nintendo do appear to support HH's longer but even then, they don't hesitate to pull the plug when they feel it's no longer financially viable. I know, to some this seems too early. Anyway, this is an extremely early prediction and i know so many things can change but one thing i think is pretty clear is that the Switch will have no problem overtaking the 3DS LT comfortably.

it's not. next year you can make proper comparisons.



quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

Considering the Switch "seems" to be on a similar sales trajectory to the PS4, i guess i can have a bash at a prediction. Counting out the N64, GC and Wii u as these weren't on the same trajectory at all, i can only use the Wii and 3/DS as historical sales barometers. From this standpoint it appears Nintendo consoles peak higher but fall faster than Sony consoles. Using a hc trajectory i can see the Switch outselling the PS4 for a period but then dropping faster. So, in short i would predict Switch doing 85-115m sales LT but with the PS4, longevity would probably ensure sales of at least 125m, top end possibly even 150m. Of course it's early days and there could be so many variables. Switch could follow a path closer to the DS and reach 150m LT but i think that's unlikely. Nintendo do appear to support HH's longer but even then, they don't hesitate to pull the plug when they feel it's no longer financially viable. I know, to some this seems too early. Anyway, this is an extremely early prediction and i know so many things can change but one thing i think is pretty clear is that the Switch will have no problem overtaking the 3DS LT comfortably.

it's not. next year you can make proper comparisons.

It's the whole point of this thread and there is a nice link showing you this is the case. I know you like to ignore proof right there in your face but in reality, all you need to do is click and read the link. Think you are capable of doing that?



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Not surprising, but it’s also had a significantly stronger launch year for software. I have my doubts that Nintendo will be able to maintain the same pace as PS4, but it will no doubt do great numbers. I’m predicting 80 - 85 million LT. Better than 3DS and GBA, and all Nintendo home consoles besides Wii.



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peachbuggy said:
DonFerrari said:

I remember the days that anyone remotely thinking PS4 could reach PS2 numbers were called crazy here... but this year a lot of people are thinking the realm of PS2 (130+M) is possible.

Well, i initially thought it would reach 110m,  matching previous PS LT's but given it's been breaking records in its 4th year and the fact that PS consoles have such good longevity i figured it could possibly reach PS2 levels. Am sure the Switch will sell amazing numbers too. Not sure why people are arguing. I suppose it's purely for the bragging rights.  Pretty sure, even the manufacturers only care about the bottom line, not necessarily "winning", so in reality everyone should be happy. Having at least 2 healthy consoles in the marketplace can only be a good thing for everyone.

Yes I expected 110M area as well. But I agree that considering this year 130M isn't impossible (still unlikely). But it's great how our perspective changes.

WiiU expected to be a sucess, X1 to dominate and PS4 to die fast. Then Switch to do bad, PS4 to win and X1 to have less than 70% of X360 sales. And now Switch to be massive sucess and PS4 to approach PS2.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

I remember the days that anyone remotely thinking PS4 could reach PS2 numbers were called crazy here... but this year a lot of people are thinking the realm of PS2 (130+M) is possible.

Ive always said since PS2+XB & PS3+360 did similar numbers that PS4+XBO would likely sell in the same range so about 170-180 million combined.

Yep, that was the normal consensus, and since first 2 years of X1 was resonably so if it done around 60-70M PS4 could get to 100-120M at most... but perhaps the mid gen can help the X1+PS4 to increase over the previous combos.



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DonFerrari said:
peachbuggy said:

Well, i initially thought it would reach 110m,  matching previous PS LT's but given it's been breaking records in its 4th year and the fact that PS consoles have such good longevity i figured it could possibly reach PS2 levels. Am sure the Switch will sell amazing numbers too. Not sure why people are arguing. I suppose it's purely for the bragging rights.  Pretty sure, even the manufacturers only care about the bottom line, not necessarily "winning", so in reality everyone should be happy. Having at least 2 healthy consoles in the marketplace can only be a good thing for everyone.

Yes I expected 110M area as well. But I agree that considering this year 130M isn't impossible (still unlikely). But it's great how our perspective changes.

WiiU expected to be a sucess, X1 to dominate and PS4 to die fast. Then Switch to do bad, PS4 to win and X1 to have less than 70% of X360 sales. And now Switch to be massive sucess and PS4 to approach PS2.

zorg1000 said:

Ive always said since PS2+XB & PS3+360 did similar numbers that PS4+XBO would likely sell in the same range so about 170-180 million combined.

Yep, that was the normal consensus, and since first 2 years of X1 was resonably so if it done around 60-70M PS4 could get to 100-120M at most... but perhaps the mid gen can help the X1+PS4 to increase over the previous combos.

It could be perfectly possible that both PS4 and Switch easily clear 100m consoles sold and in some ways it would put some of the arguments to bed. We  can all agree they both did great but unfortunately that won't happen for years!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:
quickrick said:

it's not. next year you can make proper comparisons.

It's the whole point of this thread and there is a nice link showing you this is the case. I know you like to ignore proof right there in your face but in reality, all you need to do is click and read the link. Think you are capable of doing that?

the comparison is very unfair. we are comparing a launch which did near 3 million in 27 days, plus a fully stocked holiday till december 10, compared to launch holiday which in reality couldn't meet launch demand so the holiday boost was none existent. btw i was the # 1 predictor for november on resetera.  you were calling me a fanboy because of my prediction, time to eat rotten crow, lmao.



Unfair? Maybe to you and you only. As for your prediction, a broken clock is right twice a day. I strongly suspect it's gonna be the case with you, especially given your lack of knowledge/logic on the situation. I shall eat crow this time but i will be expecting you to be doing so many times in the future, luckily we won't have to wait too long for that. Unless,of course you decide to move the goalposts again.

 

 

As for your "unfair" comparison. Yah sure it is unfair, considering the PS4 has a holiday season behind it and the Switch doesn't. Come January the Switch will actually be way ahead.

Last edited by peachbuggy - on 19 December 2017

DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

peachbuggy said:

Unfair? Maybe to you and you only. As for your prediction, a broken clock is right twice a day. I strongly suspect it's gonna be the case with you, especially given your lack of knowledge/logic on the situation. I shall eat crow this time but i will be expecting you to be doing so many times in the future, luckily we won't have to wait too long for that. Unless,of course you decide to move the goalposts again.

 

 

As for your "unfair" comparison. Yah sure it is unfair, considering the PS4 has a holiday season behind it and the Switch doesn't. Come January the Switch will actually be way ahead.

 you ignore logic again, but what ever, it's expected from you which why you were so wrong november npd. ps4 was sold out the whole holidays, because of launch demand and limited supply, it had 1 million preorders 4  months before launch, just like switch being sold out during none holidays, but the only difference is, switch launched during none holidays, get it or is that to hard understand. you want a fair comparison start comparing WW numbers since September 2014 vs switch 2017.  

Last edited by quickrick - on 19 December 2017

quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

Unfair? Maybe to you and you only. As for your prediction, a broken clock is right twice a day. I strongly suspect it's gonna be the case with you, especially given your lack of knowledge/logic on the situation. I shall eat crow this time but i will be expecting you to be doing so many times in the future, luckily we won't have to wait too long for that. Unless,of course you decide to move the goalposts again.

 

 

As for your "unfair" comparison. Yah sure it is unfair, considering the PS4 has a holiday season behind it and the Switch doesn't. Come January the Switch will actually be way ahead.

 you ignore logic again, but what ever, it's expected from you which why you were so wrong november npd. ps4 was sold out the whole holidays, because of launch demand and limited supply, it had 1 million preorders 4  months before launch, just like switch being sold out during none holidays, but the only difference is, switch launched during none holidays, get it or is that to hard understand. you want a fair comparison start comparing WW numbers since September 2014 vs switch 2017.  

Moving the goalposts again huh? Even though you have been shown FACTS and even graphs showing you the truth. Just like this article. You really cannot stand the fact that your precious widdle PS4 can possibly be challenged by any company having the audacity  to even try! You have been shown graphs proving to you the benefits of a Holiday launch you have had it pointed out to you countless time that console manufacturers supply many more consoles during a seasonal launch, yet you continue to deny both facts and graphs even when they are continually drummed into you, just  because it doesn't fit into your "criteria". Well, your criteria isn't fact based in the slightest! There is really no hope for you tbh. This is actually getting a bit like the Wii/Ps3 days, when we had some priceless threads! The only difference is that the many that were shamed, stayed shamed and many haven't shown their faces here since. This time it seems like it's you and perhaps only a couple of others who continue with their self-inflicted state of delusion and try and massage the facts so they can then massage their own ego. It's the only explanation i can think of that makes you continue. Either that or you are an alt from the Wii/PS3 days. That would actually make some sense too in this case.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!