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Forums - Gaming - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139
DonFerrari on 14 December 2017
tbone51 said:
LipeJJ said:

What is your “normal” prediction? I’m always happy to see you predicting because you do it very well. 

 

DonFerrari said:

Considering this minimum, probably around 80M

Its hard to do year by year without knowing too much. I do think the floor is 60mil. There is very good momentum going for the switch and nintendo excluding the wii have never been in such a good situation in its first year.

 

80mil-85mil based on FY sales. 100mil+ is possible but it will be easier to see by next year (after 2018 sales).

 

All i do kno is switch is guarteed 15mil+ in japan especially if ps4 is going to do 8mil minimum

Yes, first year only it's hard to really do a LT projection with any strong confidence. I do agree that by Dec 18 we should be able to have better estimatives... even by March 2018 we will be more clear on what is the baseline for the console.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

#DS

2011 - 13M

2012 - 14M

2013 - 14M

2014 - 10M

2015 - 7M

Year 4 and 5 saw 30% drop on the previous year. But certainly the peak and the drop is smoother than what we have seen from the Nintendo consoles.

One thing I have to remember you and other Nintendo fans all the time is that you can't by calling it a hybrid uses only the strenghts of what Nintendo had on consoles and HH without also considering the weakness of both, like if the sum of the parts made it all strenghts and no weakness.

We can't really be sure if they will have several revisions and that it will bring high sales, although it's expected. Still as I put, if PS5 comes only by 2021, Switch would already be on the decline phase so it would be even harder to see it passing PS4 (because also, PS5 releasing in 2021 means PS4 sales up until that point were still strong).

Lets take a look at other Nintendo handhelds while we are at it to see if 3DS had an abnormal curve.

GBA

Year 1-17.09 million

Year 2-15.65 million

Year 3-17.59 million

Year 4-15.40 million

Year 5-8.33 million

Year 6-4.34 million

 

DS

Year 1-11.46 million

Year 2-23.56 million

Year 3-30.31 million

Year 4-31.18 million

Year 5-27.11 million

Year 6-14.80 million

Year 7-6.68 million

There doesnt seem to be a general sales curve for their handhelds.

Are we again at the consider Switch one or the other depending on the situation?

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

The best part of all of this is that for once after almost 4 years the discussions about selling speed, who will top the chart and etc seem to be alive.

And even though I prefer Sony and that they keep doing dedicated desk consoles I'm pleased with Nintendo playing to their strengths and finding ways to please its customers, finding well deserved success. That may entice Sony to look at a similar path (which I believe we already discussed) that may be very dependent on the speed of technology and how they will make compromises on next gen development.

Yeah, for the record, I think it would be very hard for Switch to sell better than PS4 LT, but its not impossible, and I always say it too early to predict Switch numbers and we that need to see how Switch will sell in 2018. But at end, its most important that Sony and Nintendo are doing great.

Yep very hard to do because PS4 have been doing strong and stronger every single year and considering this is still the first year of Switch any very positive or negative prediction can be totally out of what will happen. SO I agree with you to look at the pace on 2018 to have a better idea and cheer that Switch keeps doing good and pressuring Sony to do a good job next gen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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ampersand on 14 December 2017

With all the great numbers lately (Switch 10 million, SMO 2.15 million in October) it is shocking the stock price of Nintendo is actually down in the last few weeks. I guess the whole "buy the rumor, sell the news" quote is very true.



“Some parents let their young kids win at games, but mine never did. I don't think it was because they were particularly competitive, they just wanted to teach me a valuable lesson. Life is mostly just learning how to lose.”

ArnoldRimmer on 14 December 2017

Switch surely had a great start, but I expect Switch sales to considerably go down once the holiday season is over.
Because Nintendo decided to publish almost all the typical first-party-system-sellers (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) during the same year that the Switch released.

That surely led to great Switch sales in 2017 - but what about 2018 etc.? I don't see another superhit like Super Mario or Zelda come out anytime soon. All games that make me really really want to own a Switch (=Super Mario and Zelda) are already released, and there's currently not a single other first-party Switch game that I'm really looking forward to.



Jranation on 14 December 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:
Switch surely had a great start, but I expect Switch sales to considerably go down once the holiday season is over.
Because Nintendo decided to publish almost all the typical first-party-system-sellers (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) during the same year that the Switch released.

That surely led to great Switch sales in 2017 - but what about 2018 etc.? I don't see another superhit like Super Mario or Zelda come out anytime soon. All games that make me really really want to own a Switch (=Super Mario and Zelda) are already released, and there's currently not a single other first-party Switch game that I'm really looking forward to.

We need to wait for that January Direct. Because Nintendo have been making good decisions so far. Why would they make the same mistake with the Wii U for Switch 2nd year? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

zorg1000 on 14 December 2017
DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Lets take a look at other Nintendo handhelds while we are at it to see if 3DS had an abnormal curve.

GBA

Year 1-17.09 million

Year 2-15.65 million

Year 3-17.59 million

Year 4-15.40 million

Year 5-8.33 million

Year 6-4.34 million

 

DS

Year 1-11.46 million

Year 2-23.56 million

Year 3-30.31 million

Year 4-31.18 million

Year 5-27.11 million

Year 6-14.80 million

Year 7-6.68 million

There doesnt seem to be a general sales curve for their handhelds.

Are we again at the consider Switch one or the other depending on the situation?

 

Note that i said nothing about Switch



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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DonFerrari on 14 December 2017
ArnoldRimmer said:
Switch surely had a great start, but I expect Switch sales to considerably go down once the holiday season is over.
Because Nintendo decided to publish almost all the typical first-party-system-sellers (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) during the same year that the Switch released.

That surely led to great Switch sales in 2017 - but what about 2018 etc.? I don't see another superhit like Super Mario or Zelda come out anytime soon. All games that make me really really want to own a Switch (=Super Mario and Zelda) are already released, and there's currently not a single other first-party Switch game that I'm really looking forward to.

The sales will go down after the Holiday season because no other month sells as good as holiday anyway.

So all games that make you want to own a Switch were released, so have you bought them all? No love for Pokemon, SSB, MK and other big games?

SpokenTruth said:
roadkillers said:
No way Switch will sell as well as Playstation. Sony keeps their stuff on the market for years.

Demand keeps their stuff on the market for years.

If Demand for a Nintendo console maintains for years after launch, Nintendo will keep the console on shelves.

It has nothing to do with Sony just keeping them on shelves that long just because.

Eeeeeeeeer don't just make it a chicken or egg situation. Nintendo abandoned the support for N64, GC and mainly Wii before it was discontinued or out of demand. They abandoned to start developing for the new system and that helped the sales plummet, very simple concept. Sony and Nintendo have different choices on how to support their console.

Nintendo have their biggest IP showing earlier and Sony have its spread over several year but mostly later. This contribute for one having earlier and higher peaks and the other having latter peaks and bigger tail. The release price point also helps on that (besides the console release schedule).

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Are we again at the consider Switch one or the other depending on the situation?

 

Note that i said nothing about Switch

So it was a point for the sake of a point?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

NPCmates on 14 December 2017
mZuzek said:
NPCmates said:

I figure Nintendo has about 20mil maybe less hardcore fans Nintendo consoles sales have slowly been declining each new system hence why I think they decided to combined the market making it handheld, also I think the reason the handhelds sold well was due to price, pokemon and the crazy amount of re-releases and double triple and more dippers and last I don't think the gimmick for the new system is strong enough to capture new audience like Wii. It's all just theory and speculation. Maybe I being too hard lets say it doesn't break 50mil and thats if they stay strong with 1st party.

Please remove your avatar, then. It'd suit you more.

??



zorg1000 on 14 December 2017
DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Note that i said nothing about Switch

So it was a point for the sake of a point?

You know people are allowed to reply to just part of your post.

It seemed you were implying that 3DS had an abnormal sales curve and i was pointing out that none of their handhelds follow that same sales curve their console seem to follow.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

NPCmates on 14 December 2017
quickrick said:
NPCmates said:

I figure Nintendo has about 20mil maybe less hardcore fans Nintendo consoles sales have slowly been declining each new system hence why I think they decided to combined the market making it handheld, also I think the reason the handhelds sold well was due to price, pokemon and the crazy amount of re-releases and double triple and more dippers and last I don't think the gimmick for the new system is strong enough to capture new audience like Wii. It's all just theory and speculation. Maybe I being too hard lets say it doesn't break 50mil and thats if they stay strong with 1st party.

handhelds were the only source of good entertainment on the go  back then, thats why handhelds sales were so strong back then

Pokemon pretty much by itself made them sell so well but also my theory comes similar to the xbox one I think lots of people were double dipping everyone I know who has handheld Nintendo hardware always gets both pokemons games and at least 2-3 of whatever handheld they on not to mention different colours and sizes I just think shit loads of people dip more with Nintendo than anyone else and its good they have a savage fanbase.



NPCmates on 14 December 2017
Flilix said:
NPCmates said:

I figure Nintendo has about 20mil maybe less hardcore fans Nintendo consoles sales have slowly been declining each new system hence why I think they decided to combined the market making it handheld, also I think the reason the handhelds sold well was due to price, pokemon and the crazy amount of re-releases and double triple and more dippers and last I don't think the gimmick for the new system is strong enough to capture new audience like Wii. It's all just theory and speculation. Maybe I being too hard lets say it doesn't break 50mil and thats if they stay strong with 1st party.

Okay, these are pretty good reasons and these are also pretty much the reasons why I don't see it doing 100 million. However, 40 million still seems a bit too low. This would mean that it would have sold 1/3 of its lifetime sales in its first year. I don't think this has ever happened to any other console.

 

Flilix said:
NPCmates said:

I figure Nintendo has about 20mil maybe less hardcore fans Nintendo consoles sales have slowly been declining each new system hence why I think they decided to combined the market making it handheld, also I think the reason the handhelds sold well was due to price, pokemon and the crazy amount of re-releases and double triple and more dippers and last I don't think the gimmick for the new system is strong enough to capture new audience like Wii. It's all just theory and speculation. Maybe I being too hard lets say it doesn't break 50mil and thats if they stay strong with 1st party.

Okay, these are pretty good reasons and these are also pretty much the reasons why I don't see it doing 100 million. However, 40 million still seems a bit too low. This would mean that it would have sold 1/3 of its lifetime sales in its first year. I don't think this has ever happened to any other console.

I'm not 100% sure but I think Nintendo has huge success on its launch but doesn't stay as strong, I know it's a wild theory but hey I could be right. I changed it to 50mil which gives me a little more wiggle room haha