"The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

[DonFerrari]

tbone51 said:

LipeJJ said:

What is your “normal” prediction? I’m always happy to see you predicting because you do it very well. 

 

DonFerrari said:

Considering this minimum, probably around 80M

Its hard to do year by year without knowing too much. I do think the floor is 60mil. There is very good momentum going for the switch and nintendo excluding the wii have never been in such a good situation in its first year.

 

80mil-85mil based on FY sales. 100mil+ is possible but it will be easier to see by next year (after 2018 sales).

 

All i do kno is switch is guarteed 15mil+ in japan especially if ps4 is going to do 8mil minimum

Yes, first year only it's hard to really do a LT projection with any strong confidence. I do agree that by Dec 18 we should be able to have better estimatives... even by March 2018 we will be more clear on what is the baseline for the console.

zorg1000 said:

DonFerrari said:

#DS

2011 - 13M

2012 - 14M

2013 - 14M

2014 - 10M

2015 - 7M

Year 4 and 5 saw 30% drop on the previous year. But certainly the peak and the drop is smoother than what we have seen from the Nintendo consoles.

One thing I have to remember you and other Nintendo fans all the time is that you can't by calling it a hybrid uses only the strenghts of what Nintendo had on consoles and HH without also considering the weakness of both, like if the sum of the parts made it all strenghts and no weakness.

We can't really be sure if they will have several revisions and that it will bring high sales, although it's expected. Still as I put, if PS5 comes only by 2021, Switch would already be on the decline phase so it would be even harder to see it passing PS4 (because also, PS5 releasing in 2021 means PS4 sales up until that point were still strong).

Lets take a look at other Nintendo handhelds while we are at it to see if 3DS had an abnormal curve.

GBA

Year 1-17.09 million

Year 2-15.65 million

Year 3-17.59 million

Year 4-15.40 million

Year 5-8.33 million

Year 6-4.34 million

 

DS

Year 1-11.46 million

Year 2-23.56 million

Year 3-30.31 million

Year 4-31.18 million

Year 5-27.11 million

Year 6-14.80 million

Year 7-6.68 million

There doesnt seem to be a general sales curve for their handhelds.

Are we again at the consider Switch one or the other depending on the situation?

Miyamotoo said:

DonFerrari said:

The best part of all of this is that for once after almost 4 years the discussions about selling speed, who will top the chart and etc seem to be alive.

And even though I prefer Sony and that they keep doing dedicated desk consoles I'm pleased with Nintendo playing to their strengths and finding ways to please its customers, finding well deserved success. That may entice Sony to look at a similar path (which I believe we already discussed) that may be very dependent on the speed of technology and how they will make compromises on next gen development.

Yeah, for the record, I think it would be very hard for Switch to sell better than PS4 LT, but its not impossible, and I always say it too early to predict Switch numbers and we that need to see how Switch will sell in 2018. But at end, its most important that Sony and Nintendo are doing great.

Yep very hard to do because PS4 have been doing strong and stronger every single year and considering this is still the first year of Switch any very positive or negative prediction can be totally out of what will happen. SO I agree with you to look at the pace on 2018 to have a better idea and cheer that Switch keeps doing good and pressuring Sony to do a good job next gen.