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Forums - Politics Discussion - Donald Trump: How Do You Feel about Him Now? (Poll)

 

Last November,

I supported him and I still do - Americas 91 15.77%
 
I supported him and I now don't - Americas 16 2.77%
 
I supported him and I still do - Europe 37 6.41%
 
I supported him and I now don't - Europe 7 1.21%
 
I supported him and I still do - Asia 6 1.04%
 
I supported him and I now don't - Asia 1 0.17%
 
I supported him and I still do - RoW 15 2.60%
 
I supported him and I now don't - RoW 2 0.35%
 
I didn't support him and still don't. 373 64.64%
 
I didn't support him and now do. 29 5.03%
 
Total:577
SpokenTruth said:
massimus said:

It’s on the last page. The U-6 quote. You think the lowering of unemployment is people working but that’s not true. If you are “unemployed” then you are in the workforce and looking for work. If you give up looking for work and drop out of the workforce then the unemployment goes down, just not for the reason you think it does.

You provided two U-6 numbers and nether had a date other than "November" and "precrisis".

I'll provide the numbers then.  U-5, U6 and U-3 (Official rate).

Notice it is still the same trend rate and that no numbers were being fudged?  Stay off the Fox News.

Using the "real" numbers actually shows a much better decline in unemployment figures.  It makes Obama look even BETTER than the numbers you were originally using. 

 

Congratulations, it looks like he wound up strengthening your position!  Reality has its way of asserting Itself even when people refuse to accept it XD



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Oh it trended downward from 16! Such progress! Going back to 9 is nothing special, my point is that the economy could do that by itself. They were fudging the numbers. Using the U-3 as a sign of economic progress is a joke. Claiming that the U-6 unemployment being 7.3 today because of a trending Obama’s economic policy is a joke. It took his whole 8 years to get back to shitty status, where as the trump policies would have cut that in half at least.

Last edited by massimus - on 04 July 2018

SuaveSocialist said:
SpokenTruth said:

You provided two U-6 numbers and nether had a date other than "November" and "precrisis".

I'll provide the numbers then.  U-5, U6 and U-3 (Official rate).

Notice it is still the same trend rate and that no numbers were being fudged?  Stay off the Fox News.

Using the "real" numbers actually shows a much better decline in unemployment figures.  It makes Obama look even BETTER than the numbers you were originally using. 

 

Congratulations, it looks like he wound up strengthening your position!  Reality has its way of asserting Itself even when people refuse to accept it XD

 

Lmao laughable... wow that squiggly line is much larger! You showed him!



SpokenTruth said:
massimus said:

Oh it trended downward from 16! Such progress! Going back to 9 is nothing special, my point is that the economy could do that by itself. They were fudging the numbers. Using the U-3 as a sign of economic progress is a joke. Claiming that the U-6 unemployment being 7.3 today because of a trending Obama’s economic policy is a joke. It took his whole 8 years to get back to shitty status, where as the trump policies would have cut that in half at least.

U-3 has been the official unemployment figure for decades and Trump's administration also uses it.  It's current definition and criteria were established by 1994 revision of the Current Population Survey of the Bureau of Labor Statics to be more in line with the UN International Labor Organizations definitions and criteria.

That makes it any less of a joke how?



SpokenTruth said:
massimus said:

That makes it any less of a joke how?

Does U-3 shows a different trend from U-5 and U-6?  No.  Then the criteria is irrelevant.  The change in employment was the same regardless of which measurement you use.

You guys were trying to say Obama's administration fudged the numbers.  Here are all the numbers and none were fudged.
You guys were trying to say real unemployment (U-6) stayed way high under Obama and only now under Trump has it decreased.  Facts prove that's a lie too.

The trend rate is the same.  I don't understand why you are trying to argue differently.

Going from 16% to 9% and going from 9% to 4% are completely different things. The measurements themselves are different. I never said Obama’s himself fudged the numbers. I said your graph was bullshit and it is. Did you even know about u-6 before I brought it up?

 

 

MeasureNot seasonally adjustedSeasonally adjusted
May
2017
Apr.
2018
May
2018
May
2017
Jan.
2018
Feb.
2018
Mar.
2018
Apr.
2018
May
2018

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force

1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force

1.9 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)

4.1 3.7 3.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers

4.3 3.9 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

5.0 4.5 4.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

8.1 7.4 7.3 8.4 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6

 



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“You guys were trying to say Obama's administration fudged the numbers.”
I never said Obama did anything, I said your chart was bullshit and it is fudged numbers. Why isn’t U-6 the official number? So they can go on TV and brag about their unemployment numbers.


“You guys were trying to say real unemployment (U-6) stayed way high under Obama and only now under Trump has it decreased.”
I never said that either... I never said it didn’t decrease, i said it was the real number and it was still high and it was. It has dramatically decreased under trump in a year and a half. You said it because of Obama’s economic policy and I told you you were full of shit.



I never really like to connect economy with a president purely because the market is an entirely different monster. I think Trump's Pro-American Job policy has convinced some companies to invest once again, but in hindsight this demographic is likely overblown by MSM to simplify it to the casual audience.


Sure the economy did gradually get better under Obama, but we had a crash so bad that we were gonna name it the Great Depression, but since that already happened they changed it to Recession at the last moment. Obama could've put both hands under his rear end the whole time and the market would have likely corrected itself the way it ended up doing. To say that Obama fixed the economy is a borderline fantasy statement that doesn't take the whole picture into account, and same goes for Trump.



Exactly. In fact, it would have gotten to that point much faster if not for those economic policies. It went back down to 9% in spite of him. They couldn’t name one policy that drove those numbers down. What was it, shutting down the coal mines? Sending our jobs to other countries? Taking over the health insurance companies? 



TH3-D0S3R said:
I never really like to connect economy with a president purely because the market is an entirely different monster. I think Trump's Pro-American Job policy has convinced some companies to invest once again, but in hindsight this demographic is likely overblown by MSM to simplify it to the casual audience.


Sure the economy did gradually get better under Obama, but we had a crash so bad that we were gonna name it the Great Depression, but since that already happened they changed it to Recession at the last moment. Obama could've put both hands under his rear end the whole time and the market would have likely corrected itself the way it ended up doing. To say that Obama fixed the economy is a borderline fantasy statement that doesn't take the whole picture into account, and same goes for Trump.

What Pro - American Job policy did Trump institute that you believe has convinced companies to invest once again.  Are we seeing trends under this administration where the number of jobs are more than what was under the previous administration.  Hell, I do not even believe we have enough data from this Administration to make such assumption.  If anything the trend seems to be the same which means Trump did a good job not Fing anything up.  We will see how long that goes with the Tariffs.  No matter how you look at it, this will start to impact the country.  It will be interesting to see if Trump stays his course if things get bad or will he show weakness and cave in.  

Personally I believe he will hold fast, until its so bad that he will have no choice but to cave in.  Other nations already are making deals without the US gearing up for a fight.  



massimus said:

Exactly. In fact, it would have gotten to that point much faster if not for those economic policies. It went back down to 9% in spite of him. They couldn’t name one policy that drove those numbers down. What was it, shutting down the coal mines? Sending our jobs to other countries? Taking over the health insurance companies? 

I am pretty positive you will find something else to use once these numbers cannot be used to as any indication of Trump success.  Just like Trump was using the stock market as an indication of his success until the bottom fell out, I am sure we will see the same thing here as well.  So what economic policies did Trump bring about that help with job growth.  How many months has he consistently had better Job growth over Obama in the last 4 years.  How many of those coal mines are now going strong under Trump.  How many jobs are still going overseas under Trump. Has any of his polices actually been in effect long enough to even measure any real change over the previous administration.  Its not like this stuff ever changes on a dime but it seems you want to give all the credit to Trump as if any trend shows he is doing a better job then the last.