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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst: PS3 Price Cut May Be Too Little, Too Late

This guy is a moron. Software developers would make a lot more money on the Wii then on the PS3/360 simply for the fact that its a lot cheaper/easier/faster to develop games on the Wii. That's why Wii games are $10 cheaper. The only reason game devs had so many games originally developed for the PS3/360 was because they really thought those two consoles would become the big winners in this generation and the Wii would be a complete 3rd place loser. They were completely wrong and everyone is scrambling to develop for the Wii. Like its been said before. The console wars are built on momentum. The Wii has "won", period, point blank. The best the PS3 can do is get a lousy 2nd or 3rd place. The prospect of the PS3 being a success grows slimmer and slimmer as each day passes.



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I don't think the Wii has won yet. As a lot of people on these forums have said, and I agree with them, this holiday season will determine where everyone stands. I'd even go out on a limb and say Fiscal End 08 for a better determination. All the "big" guns are yet to be released, save a few medium sized guns, and when we see their releases, followed by others, we can determine by simply LOOKING, if hardware is being moved by those games, price drops, trends, momentum etc. The Wii is clearly winning RIGHT now, but it might not be in 6-12 months, though I hope it is. :P



The only thing I can say for sure is that the Wii can't lose. It's already made enough profit to justify it's existence. That's a great position for any business to be in.



JUST WHEN PEOPLE WILL UNDERSTAND, THAT ONLY GAMES MATTERS!? =) NOT A PRICE! =) People will pay ANY price, just to play FFXIII, MGS4, GT5, FFXIIIv, KZ2, HS, LBP, Uncharted, Lair, 2! Team Ico games, Folklore, G3, NGS, GoW3, MS2, R&C, 8 days, Factor 5 - Turricane, Wardevil and so on. It`s not about LIST, x360, Wii also will have good games, my POINT - that true GAMER won`t ignore such amazing exclusive PS3 games. And another POINT - if KZ2 really will look almost like e3 2k5 render (haze already looking good), then PRICE won`t matter at all. Just like people go to moovie-theater, to see AMAZING visuals, they will pay money, just to play game with AMAZING visuals. Till then, NO GAMES - NO SALES, SIMPLE. =]



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Bodhesatva said:

Part of this is actually bad news for the Wii, by the way, specifically the part involving third parties.

He has one issue with the Wii: the games are lower priced (49.99), and therefore could cut into corporate revenue (not necessarily profits) over the more expensive PS3/360 titles (59.99).

His other issues with 3rd parties aren't problems with the Wii, but more general problems: large 3rd party companies have already spent a great deal of money on R&D for game engines on PS3/360, and simply brushing aside that investment could be costly.

Lastly, he points out that Nintendo does very well on the software side, and this would automatically cut in to 3rd party sales. I don't believe that people just buy Nintendo-published games "just because," but I do buy the argument that people buy Nintendo published games because they are GOOD. Simple example: if System A has one good first party game, one could reasonably expect a third party game would do better on System A than on System B, which has 4 good first party titles. It's great for the consumer to have 5+ great games to play with, but for publishers of high quality, heavy-investment titles, all it means is more competition and more sales dilution. 


I agree that the revenues may be lower for wii games (but this assumes that the game would seel about the same amount on another console)  But at the end day what really matters to publishers is profits.  And if it take less money to develope a game, it stands a better chance of making a profit.

I also disagree with his comments about the R&D.  Yes, it will sting the publishers who bet on the PS3 or 360 right off the back.  But in the end it appears that motion sensing will be the future of gaming.  You can likly expect at least some basic motion sensing on the future counsoles. (PS4 and 360)  And now is the perfect time for the publishers to learn how to best exploit this inovation with aconsole that is cheaper to develope for.  In the next generation they will have learned many tricks that they can use on more expensive games.  And they won't have to use trial and error on $20 million budget games.

 And while it is true that Nintendo will probably dominate the software for the Wii.  This will just force the publishers to develope high quality games to try and match Nintendo.  And I would assume that all of us would like to see most studios increase the quality of their games.



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CrazzyMan said:
 Factor 5 - Turricane, Wardevil and so on.

 Turricane, certainly. The game was very well liked and nearly everybody played it, but nearly no one bought it... People don't pay any price for games! They are very price sensitive.



HappySqurriel said:

The current situation:

PS3: $600
XBox 360: $500/$400/$300
Wii: $250

If the PS3 dropped in price to $500:

PS3: $500
XBox 360: $450/$350/$250
Wii: $200

If the PS3 dropped to $400

PS3:$400
XBox 360: $400/$300/$250
Wii: $200

 

The question is how much of an improvement would these price cuts have in the longer term ... Certainly people who were dying to buy a PS3 but simply couldn't afford it at $600 but could afford it at $500/$400 would now be able to buy it but how large of a market is that? After the PS3 makes this type of a price reduction when can they afford to make annother one?


 I agree 100% with that breakdown of what seems most likely on the price cut issue.



BenKenobi88 said:
I'm getting kind of sick of all the "expert" analysts out there...

I certainly agree that one needs to be skeptical of an analyst just because they are releasing an opinion about this whole thing and in the end, the people on this website have 96% of the information that the analysts have in the first place.  I've personally been amazed at some of the things that the members of this website have dredged up about the manufacturing prices, and so forth. 

 

So, in the end,it's just an educated guess.



CrazzyMan said:
JUST WHEN PEOPLE WILL UNDERSTAND, THAT ONLY GAMES MATTERS!? =) NOT A PRICE! =) People will pay ANY price, just to play FFXIII, MGS4, GT5, FFXIIIv, KZ2, HS, LBP, Uncharted, Lair, 2! Team Ico games, Folklore, G3, NGS, GoW3, MS2, R&C, 8 days, Factor 5 - Turricane, Wardevil and so on. It`s not about LIST, x360, Wii also will have good games, my POINT - that true GAMER won`t ignore such amazing exclusive PS3 games. And another POINT - if KZ2 really will look almost like e3 2k5 render (haze already looking good), then PRICE won`t matter at all. Just like people go to moovie-theater, to see AMAZING visuals, they will pay money, just to play game with AMAZING visuals. Till then, NO GAMES - NO SALES, SIMPLE. =]

I have aready had people tell me that they refuse to go to movies because of the ticket prices(about $8) and that they will just wait for it to come out on DVD and rent it for $4.  The truth is that price does matter to the average consumer. (and I am willing to bet it matters to even the normal Hardcore gamers)  If price didn't matter, why didn't Sony price the PS3 at $800 so that they wouldn't lose any money on sales?

Even Sony understands that price matters.



Price matters CrazyMan. Your not thinking like an average consumer. The console wars are not determined by the hard core gamer, but by the average consumer. The average consumer looks at: cost of console, cost of games, variety and amount of games, fun games. The hardcore gamer looks at: technology of console, extra features (Live/Home/VC), exclusive games/franchises. What the average consumer and average gamer look at is totally different.