Hey guys, now that we are on the 5th calendar year of PS4 (but not full 4 years on the market yet) and this was the timeframe at which Wii started to slow down, let's give our estimatives on the PS4 passing or not the Wii.

Below are the numbers of what already happened

As soon as the HW shortages ended Wii soared in sales very fast, but also had a step decline. PS4 never passed to similar HW shortages, but we expect it to have a much steady sales curve. So here are my estimatives for the next year sales (2017 included).

I think PS4 can finish this year around 18M sold and that would put it at 71,4M... with a GAP of over 10M to cover on the decline of Wii.

I expect 2018 to be a small drop on sales, PS4 still have to see the price cut for 199 and lower, and that can keep the steady sales to something between 110-130M LT. My expectation is for PS4 to reach close to the middle on 120M.

For that it would need to sell 16M, 14M and 12M before PS5 launch and additional 7M after it, so far this has been quite achievable by PS platforms

Unless something unexpected happens (Like an early PS5 release or something), yes it's on track to beat the Wii and PS1. I'd say 115m lifetime.

I'd say the PS4 will get close to gameBoy numbers. 120m for the console is not that much of a stretch, unless Sony kills it prematurely.

PS4 will surpass the Wii and most likely the Gameboy imo too.

Any prediction we do can be completely wrong for more or less depending on how Sony decides to do the end life support and if they will do a PS4Pro+ or PS5 next and how far that is... will PS4 curve behave more like PS1/2 with shorter life cycle and high post-mortem life or PS3 with very platoed peak for several years and low post life because of streach gen.

But yes I don't think 120M is unreasonable to expect at this moment in time.

It's very likely. The PS4 will stay relevant for a good deal longer, and while a PS5 announcement may damage that, i don't think Sony would want to kill the great momentum they have, in addition to the lack of a general fan outcry for the next console to be released soon.

HW and SW haven't dropped yet so I see no reason for a PS5 on the next couple years (which I estimate is the time between perceiving the drop in sales, finish the definition of the HW baseline, engineer and prototype it, make the dev kit and on the last 6-12m develop launch games), it probably would take as few as much as 3 years from perceived peak to launch. And also the 2 years after the next gen it will sell some considerable amount if priced right.

Yes it'll pass Wii, and then the 3 best selling home-consoles of all time will all be PlayStation.

Maybe 2019 ?! And 2018.. I think the games like God of War, Spiderman, Red Dead Redemption 2, Death Stranding, Kingdom Hearts 3, Ni No Kuni 2, Detroit Become Human, Shenmue 3, Yakuza 6 and other big Games will greatly increase the PS4 sales figures

The problem the Wii had, was its year 6,7,8,9,10 the sales of it dropped off a cliff.
Playstations lose wind in their sails too overtime, but it ll be a less steep decline.

2017: 18,5m
2018: 17m
2019: 15m
2020: 12m  (PS5 releases near end of this year)
2021: 8m
2022: 4m

= lifetime : ~128m