Nice analysis, but it's quite simple actually:

1) Wii leads with 2.58 million units sold compared to the PS3 in Others

2) Wii outsells PS3 almost every week in Others, albeit sometimes within the margin of error.

3) PS3 had 2 pricecuts*, Wii had none.

To conclude with the fact that the PS3 will overtake the Wii in Others is... hopeful at best. It just doesn't look like it ever will.



* technically one pricecut and one new cheaper SKU, but for consumers it's the same thing

I think the major flaw in your analysis for 2008 is that first you admit that Wii is currently supply constrained in Others yet you use the data from the period in which the Wii is supply constrained to make your 2008 non holiday predictions. It is almost certain that Nintendo already has or shortly will increase the production of the Wii. You should probably add 10% to 20% to the Wii sales for those static 28 weeks.

Anything can happen. It's certainly possible that the PS3 will catch up. It's also possible for Wii Sales to take off in the same way the DS did after the second year. It's too early to tell.

You also didn't take into account how holiday 2007 played out in Others.

Sales during November and December 2007:

Wii: 2,263,581

PS3: 1,699,339

The Wii sold 33% more units during the holiday 2007 despite Wii being very supply constrained, yet you still used your 10% difference factor from the past 14 weeks. No offense but your analysis leaves a lot to be desired.

i agree

i never see PS3 beating Wii in Others LTD 

Yeah, the holiday quarter is very important since Nov and Dec are such huge sales months. Your analysis would be much better if you included the holiday period. I see no real reason to exlude the holidays except to skew results to your conclusion.

and before the PS3 passes Wii, it still has to pass 360
u guys can't all assume it's going to happen def

u did this right after ps3 had 3 larger than usual weeks due to gt5p...why not do this before that or after wii gets mk?

better yet, after wii is fully available everywhere?

also, ps3 wasn't soold in others last winter, so how are u doing year over year?

There are a few problems with this comparison, and in particular, your conclusion.

The first problem is the total sales up to this point. The PS3 has just seen a major game release in Others, while the Wii hasn't really seen any big games this year, and has also has seen a few supply issues, especially at the beginning of the year, which drags down the average weekly sales, while GT5:P brings up the PS3 average slightly. And a few weeks there seemed to be some supply issues, even around early February. Looking at this graph, sales took a plunge at the beginning of Feb, but now are rising again, while the PS3 (and 360) have remained rather flat, besides GT5:P for the PS3 and a price cut for the 360. I think the Wii level off at 125k a week in Others, while the PS3 will level off at about 90k once the whole GT5:P, GTA4, and MGS4 (which is coming soon right?) wear off. Even if it's only roughly 20 of the 42 of the weeks the Wii beats the PS3 by this much, that's an additional 700k from the PS3, and with the holidays the Wii will probably manage about a million more than the PS3. That's more than the 10% difference.

Also, your conclusion. You have the Wii selling more this year, with some of the biggest PS3 games already out (which helps the PS3 push it's numbers up), while the Wii doesn't have any big games out yet (like MKWii, Brawl, WiiFit), so it doesn't have those boosts yet, yet although the Wii is already ahead of the PS3 by about 2.5 million, and it's selling better this year, you come to the conclusion that the PS3 will turn it around and beat or at least come within 10% of the Wii's total (a statistical tie). I just don't understand how you come to this conclusion?

You can't use year over year increases, because like others have said (even yourself mentioned it), smaller numbers have an easier time to have a bigger increase. According to my research, the Wii increased a staggering 453% from 2006 to 2007. And by the way, the Wii was only out a few months in 2006. The PS3 also had at least one "real" price cut, and a new SKU last year, while the Wii hasn't pulled those cards yet.

There's just no real hard evidence for a turn around of this magnitude. Not that it couldn't happen, it's just that right now there's no precedent for it. But it's your prediction and you are entitled to it. I usually stay away from predictions, and instead used past trends to "predict" future trends, which is how I got the numbers in my sig. But I wouldn't say I predicted them.  So all we can really do is wait and see how the year plays out, then we'll be more informed about the market as a whole, then it'll be a bit easier to say how it will play out.

Mainly due to PS3 finding a steady average and then jumping up for events such as new releases or new SKU's ect. While Wii will find an average then jump below it usually or sometimes above it for a new flucuation, but did not have any of those events. Remember Brawl, MK, and Wii Fit have all not released there, and really the release list for Europe so far on Wii this year has been minimally atrocious. Luckily MK Wii is coming out soon there and we should see an increase in the weekly average if supplies in general allow it, which I shouldn't see why not.