| tombi123 said: This is to do with the prediction in my Sig. Comparing Wii sales and PS3 sales, this year in Others. Wii: 1,528,573 PS3: 1,394,303 Difference: 134,270. This is over a 14 week period, so that translates in 9,591 more Wii's sold a week, than PS3's. The percentage difference between the PS3 and Wii sales is 8.78%, this year. This is within a 10% error margin, so they are statistically tied at this point. There are slight fluctuations from week to week in Wii sales. This suggests that there is minimal supply issues. Obviously nothing like the supply issues in NA, but demand isn't being 100% meet, like in Japan. If we assume that the next 28 weeks will be steady sales wise, this leaves the last 10 weeks of the year for the holiday/christmas boost. So going into the holiday period, sales should look like this for the year: Wii: 4,585,719 PS3: 4,182,909 This ignore major game releases such as, GTA4, MGS4, MKWii, WiiFit, SSBB etc. Also price cuts (if any). The last ten weeks accounted for roughly 42% of console sales last year in 'others'. Meaning, the sales after the first 42 weeks are 58% of the total for the whole year. 4,585,719/58 x100=7,906,412. 4,182,909/58 x100=7,211,912. This would mean, 2008 sales would look like this: Wii: 7,906,412 PS3: 7,211,912 This would give a sales percentage increase from 2007 to 2008 of: Wii: +49% PS3: +99% The PS3 released in Europe at the end of march, so that percentage increase is slightly skewed (it should be slightly lower). So the PS3 has a much higher year on year percentage increase, but the Wii still outsells it (but its with a 10% error margin). At the end of 2008, sales should look like this: Wii: 13,973,607 PS3: 10,837,783 So at the end of 2008, the Wii should have a lead of roughly 3M units. However, the PS3 has the larger year on year percentage increase. Conclusion: Given the year on year percentage increase, I think the PS3 will overcome the 3M units it currently trails the Wii by. By the end of the generation, the Wii and PS3 should be statically tied for first place in 'Others'. What do you think of my analysis? Better than Patcher? More importantly, what do you think of my conclusion? agree, disagree? Discuss...
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There are a few problems with this comparison, and in particular, your conclusion.
The first problem is the total sales up to this point. The PS3 has just seen a major game release in Others, while the Wii hasn't really seen any big games this year, and has also has seen a few supply issues, especially at the beginning of the year, which drags down the average weekly sales, while GT5:P brings up the PS3 average slightly. And a few weeks there seemed to be some supply issues, even around early February. Looking at this graph, sales took a plunge at the beginning of Feb, but now are rising again, while the PS3 (and 360) have remained rather flat, besides GT5:P for the PS3 and a price cut for the 360. I think the Wii level off at 125k a week in Others, while the PS3 will level off at about 90k once the whole GT5:P, GTA4, and MGS4 (which is coming soon right?) wear off. Even if it's only roughly 20 of the 42 of the weeks the Wii beats the PS3 by this much, that's an additional 700k from the PS3, and with the holidays the Wii will probably manage about a million more than the PS3. That's more than the 10% difference.
Also, your conclusion. You have the Wii selling more this year, with some of the biggest PS3 games already out (which helps the PS3 push it's numbers up), while the Wii doesn't have any big games out yet (like MKWii, Brawl, WiiFit), so it doesn't have those boosts yet, yet although the Wii is already ahead of the PS3 by about 2.5 million, and it's selling better this year, you come to the conclusion that the PS3 will turn it around and beat or at least come within 10% of the Wii's total (a statistical tie). I just don't understand how you come to this conclusion?
You can't use year over year increases, because like others have said (even yourself mentioned it), smaller numbers have an easier time to have a bigger increase. According to my research, the Wii increased a staggering 453% from 2006 to 2007. And by the way, the Wii was only out a few months in 2006. The PS3 also had at least one "real" price cut, and a new SKU last year, while the Wii hasn't pulled those cards yet.
There's just no real hard evidence for a turn around of this magnitude. Not that it couldn't happen, it's just that right now there's no precedent for it. But it's your prediction and you are entitled to it. I usually stay away from predictions, and instead used past trends to "predict" future trends, which is how I got the numbers in my sig. But I wouldn't say I predicted them. So all we can really do is wait and see how the year plays out, then we'll be more informed about the market as a whole, then it'll be a bit easier to say how it will play out.
