There is feel good factor to the way the Switch is selling at the moment, being constantly out of stock and people are getting a bit crazy. Nowadays the market is saturated with gaming devices including phones and tablets many of which can offer similar experiences to some of the Switch games. I think we all know there are so many variables that could effect Switch success and realistically we just don't know how well it will sell because we don't know future pricing or Switch product and what other options people will have. I think it has got a foothold far stronger than the wii u ever had thanks no doubt to portability so I think we all accept its going to do a lot better than wii u but the pretty much the rest is unwritten how much beyond that. My guess is something like 60 million at this point. Well ahead of wii u and Xbox but well below what I expect the ps4 to end up at.

In his defense, Nintendo did stop supporting the WiiU a few years back to make Switch games. And what's with the Wii/DS comparison? Those were products targeting an entirely different market.

Every time I see these threads, I think of this:

But really, there are a lot of factors we don't know about for the Switch to reach that amount. They've tried to be more open to the chinese market lately, so I don't discard a chinese release, and if it makes a good impression there, we could be seeing 30-50m+ consoles on top of the ones sold everywhere else. Plus, we have to see how much will the other models cost (Switch Mini, Switch TV, Switch Go...).

Absolutely true, I don't deny that. But the difference this gen is that Nintendo only has one console to support (and the 3DS in 2017). Nintendo's problem has always been the transition period between generations when they couldn't support old and new consoles at the same time. This time they won't have to cut Switch support once next generation software is in development. If anything, 2018-2020 will be very stuffed software-wise. We see this already with Mario and Fire Emblem releasing back to back because Nintendo wants to give third parties some space.

Wii / DS: That's correct, which is why I pointed it out! His post read a lot like the stuff we would hear during the Wii / DS generation and you are absolutely right, those were different products. Which is why I wonder why he brings that argument up. 

I think the general problem with sales predictions is that people only look at the last few years to determine how something will sell. Example: The Wii U was a flop so the next Nintendo console will bomb. Last generation people predicted the Wii U to sell well (despite the concept being absolutely horrible and it launching with the cringe-worthy Nintendo Land) because the Wii had sold like crazy. The gen before that they predicted the Wii to be an absolute flop and the PS3 to match PS2 sales and we all know what happened. This doesn't just go in one direction, it applies to Sony as well. If the PS5 is a flop (for whatever reason) people will predict doom and gloom for the PS6 even if the concept behind it is great and Sony learned from their hypothetical PS5 mistakes. 

Neither Sony nor Microsoft can copy the Switch. They'll make the machine their third parties overlords want them to make, and that isn't going to be an underpowered hybrid.

I'm pretty sure CGI-mod has made it quite clear that that discussion is done, but i'll just leave it at this with this one reply. 

You're not obligated to go into any topic and get mad, or discuss anything. Yet most people here do, because it is a forum. The reply you actually quoted was not made out of rage in fact. I actually laughed quite hard at his response to me when I said that I knew it was him before clicking the thread. After hearing him say "Because I'm the voice of reason during the temporary Switch craze." I couldn't help but giggle and respond with a dose of reality. 

The rest of my posts might have come from a place of annoyance but I think that more or less stems from the fact that these threads are asinine. I don't know what to tell you to explain and justify my viewpoint at the time, since doing so would just make me look like a bitter asshole from your perspective(although being an asshole doesn't make you wrong). Your argument against my comments makes it pretty clear your mind is already made up. I just think that this kind of stuff, when done back to back in numerous threads, really needs to be put to an end. When people are giving you feedback(and the first few times this happened it wasn't toxic) then there's no reason to repeat behavior that can be misconstrued as toxic, baiting, or the like. This isn't like a nuanced discussion. This kind of stuff doesn't get moderated because by itself it's just an innocent thread, but in context it's just as bad as what other people have been banned for numerous times. It might be "unintentional" but it occurs so often that the excuse gets old. It's like how those people who hate on the PC platform are constantly saying toxic stuff "uninentionally", but they are corrected on it so often and yet repeat it so often that at some point the purpose doesn't matter as much as the effect. In my mind if an actual discussion can be had about if Kerotan should be punished for baiting by being overly positive with Playstation, then this should be considered as well. 

That being said I don't think the Mods agree with me and i'm not about to contest it especially when I(I mean... "this thread"), got off on a warning. It's like Christmas in September. If my rant was completely unjustified though, I probably would have just been banned. I don't want to really derail this thread anymore though, since we're past that and the thread by itself without context is fine. I don't hate the guy though and if I see a thread like this ... I'll probably just walk away. I'd prefer if you didn't reply, or just sent a reply in a PM. 

A Sony version of the Switch will do as well as the Move did relatively to the Wii.

Correct title should be: I don't want the Switch to sell 130 million units!!

I can't see the Switch selling 130 million units in only 5 years either. To be honest, that would even be quite a optimistic lifetime total. There are factors that are impossible to predict though simply because I'm not a clairvoyant.

It would be good to see Nintendo sell over 100 million Switch units though.

Well, I don't expect it to sell 130 million units either. Consoles with sales like that are massive outliers that have only occurred when a console has been able to penetrate the casual market with games and features that have appealed to that demographic (PS2, Wii, DS). I believe the Switch will be a very successful system, but 130 million really feels like a stretch to me.