niceguygameplayer said:
http://n4g.com/news/2102650/market-analyst-firm-expects-nintendo-to-sell-130-million-switches-by-2022
1.) I would understand if this was an April first joke, but cmon. Even the PS2 could not match that in only 5 years. The DS and Wii didn't either. Does this analyst firm have weed smoking parties? Even Pachter would not say such ridiculousness.
2.) After demand is met, the games start winding down (I don't think Nintendo can possibly keep up this first party release schedule for a second or third year), the novelty of the Switch wears off, and Sony and other companies copy the Switch formula, I think Switch sales will likely not even match PS4. PS5 will come and crush it in a couple of years, most likely. It may have switch like features. Or Sony may release a portable PS4 type of system that can be "docked" like the Switch. It would have to be digital download only.
3.) I think the best idea to combat Switch is to make a unique system besides the PS5 or a portable PS4. PSP2 with docking would be awesome! As powerful as PS4 but with unique cartridge games just for the system. PS4 digital games could be downloaded on it for portable play. However, I don't think Sony has to copy Switch at all. The PS4 will continue to do great and when PS5 comes along, it will make Switch look archaic.
I think Switch will do very well for two to three years and then taper off. Will it be a large success? I think it will. I think 75 million to 100 lifetime. 130 million in 5 years. Please.
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Okay, I've finally stopped laughing, so now I can reply.
1.) The end of 2022 is closer to six years, and DS did match that. Also, Pachter is infamous for wildly underestimating Nintendo. For reference, he thought that Switch would sell 5 million total throughout the entirety of 2017.
2.) Nintendo had to split development between two platforms before, but now they can focus solely on Switch. It's obvious that the frequency of first-party games will increase when compared to previous consoles. Also, Sony has already tried to take over Nintendo's share of the handheld market, and they failed miserably. What makes you think that a digital-only copycat device would slow down Switch at all?
3.) PSP2 already happened, and it was called Vita. Also, you literally just said in the previous paragraph that Switch sales will decline once Sony copies the Switch formula, but now you're saying that they don't have to copy it? Make up your mind.
4.) Almost no one here is expecting 130 million by the end of 2022, and I don't expect that either. But it's not outside the realm of possibility, since that would still put it behind DS sales over the same period.