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Forums - Gaming - Prediction - PS3-PS4 and X360-XOne last big performance spec leap

Pemalite on 01 September 2017
fatslob-:O said:

@Bold Don't worry, we have 4 more years left and EUV has yet to take off ...  

And we have almost enough texture quality as it is so 16GB will be fine plus devs will probably target 1080p again ... 

Texture quality isn't the limiting factor in achieving better graphics. IMO, it's the lack of real-time physically based global illumination and we're almost close to solving the problem ... (need all of the next gen AAA games to be path traced otherwise we failed )

I dunno. Even in the latest and greatest of games, lower resolution textures stick out like a sore thumb.

And you are right, lighting is still a big limiter, but that doesn't mean everything else is suddenly less important either.




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Barkley on 01 September 2017

A large leap next-gen is going to come from the CPU. Jaguar was crap in 2013 and it's the reason a lot of games can't manage 60fps, especially on the Pro and XBO X.





asqarkabab on 01 September 2017

No your prediction is wrong we will get a massive leap next gen



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NATO on 01 September 2017

 

 



caffeinade on 01 September 2017
Kerotan said:
fatslob-:O said:
Nah, we'll have just as big of a leap as last gen if the new consoles release in late 2021 ...

I really hope this gen doesn't end before 2021. The power we have now is fine and I want the leap to be worth it. 

Current gen games are ugly.

We Need More Power.

Mostly on the CPU side though.
Oh and give us 4x + the RAM too.



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Spindel on 01 September 2017
Miyamotoo said:
To be fair with every new gen we have less graphic leap, going from PS3/Xbox 360 to PS4/XB1 is definitely smaller leap than going from PS2/GC/Xbox to PS3/Xbox 360, I expecting that next leap will be also smaller.

It's a classical case of diminishing returns.

In example going from a "cylinder" with 6 polygons in the walls to one with 60 is a much bigger visual improvement than going from a cylinder with 60 polygons in the walls to one with 600.

Also I firmly believe that the games with "realistic" graphics will continue to be firmly rooted in the uncanny valley for the forseeable future.

I rhather see the console makers spending the uppgrades on specialised AI hardware than spend more on graphics hardware. There are more things to games than looks.

The modern games I've played (mainly on PS4 and PC) still are lacking in the interaction aspect with NPCs/enemies, even if refinements have been made the scripted nature of the AI still prevails.



Turkish on 01 September 2017

PS5 Fall 2020 launch:

15TFlopz 7nm post Navi architecture

28GB RAM (24GB gaming + 4GB OS)

Ryzen 12 core 2.8Ghz

~8x leap over PS4, big games like BG&E2 and Star Citizen will be 1st year titles.

mZuzek said:
Here we go again... remember 3 years ago when everyone was like "PS360 was the last big leap".

I still love the look of this gen's graphics mang, things like PBR makes a yuge difference. Compared to last gen 3-4 years in, UE3 games all started to look to the same, the games were brown and muddy with sub 720p30, by 2010-2011 it was bad.

Barkley said:
A large leap next-gen is going to come from the CPU. Jaguar was crap in 2013 and it's the reason a lot of games can't manage 60fps, especially on the Pro and XBO X.

I dont expect 60fps to ever be the standard, it just hasn't been since the 90s. The extra juice always gets put into more things happening on screen.

Next gen will have more graphics settings tho, I expect higher res 30/lower res 60fps modes be more prevalent, or even a system wide feature.



Chazore on 01 September 2017
Turkish said:

PS5 Fall 2020 launch:

15TFlopz 7nm post Navi architecture

28GB RAM (24GB gaming + 4GB OS)

Ryzen 12 core 2.8Ghz

~8x leap over PS4, big games like BG&E2 and Star Citizen will be 1st year titles.

mZuzek said:
Here we go again... remember 3 years ago when everyone was like "PS360 was the last big leap".

I still love the look of this gen's graphics mang, things like PBR makes a yuge difference. Compared to last gen 3-4 years in, UE3 games all started to look to the same, the games were brown and muddy with sub 720p30, by 2010-2011 it was bad.

Barkley said:
A large leap next-gen is going to come from the CPU. Jaguar was crap in 2013 and it's the reason a lot of games can't manage 60fps, especially on the Pro and XBO X.

I dont expect 60fps to ever be the standard, it just hasn't been since the 90s. The extra juice always gets put into more things happening on screen.

Next gen will have more graphics settings tho, I expect higher res 30/lower res 60fps modes be more prevalent, or even a system wide feature.

You honestly think Star Citizen is going to go to that system, let alone as a 1st year title?.


Was there ever a time CRI said that it was definitely going to the other platforms?. I thought no one here gave a damn about the "unfinished" game?.



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KBG29 on 01 September 2017
Pemalite said:

10-12 Teraflops in 2021?
If AMD continues the refinement of GCN like it has and continues to have a heavy emphasis on compute... And considering Vega 64 is almost 14 Teraflops while boosting... I would expect next gen to exceed that by a mile, especially if the chips are built at TSMC/Global Foundries 7nm process.

The ram amount realloy depends on the memory technology and how wide the bus width is.

If Microsoft/Sony opts for a memory bus that exceeds 256-bit like the Xbox One X's 384bit memory bus, then expect something more like 24GB of Ram if it's based around GDDR5X or GDDR6.

KBG29 said:

We should also be able to have SSD as a standard, and a very large pool of HBM RAM.

If mechanical Hard Drives continue to have the Capacity to Cost advantage, then an SSD will not happen.

Some games are already starting to exceed 100GB, Halo 5 could approach 150GB~ once it's been "Xbox One X Enhanced". - You won't get far next gen if game installs increase yet again and SSD's still haven't affordably smashed the 1 Terabyte barrier.

As for HBM. There are reasons why that is unlikely to happen as well.

It all comes down to price/performance, consoles are cost-sensitive devices, they typically use low-end to mid-range components that hit certain price points.

KBG29 said:

Remember also, every PlayStation to date has had ~16x the RAM of its predecessor. That would mean next gen consoles should have 128GB of RAM. It shounds crazy right now, but by 2021 it will make sense. Not only do we need to go from 2K to 4K assest, but we also have to do it twice for VR. Next gen consoles need to have a massive boost in power, memory, storage, and speed.

Ram density to Price ratios haven't improved like they have in prior years.

Hoping for 128GB of Ram is a silly expectation.

As for VR... That could all fizzle out by next gen, just like Motion Controls and 3D.

People made outlandish claims of what hardware to expect out of this console generation, some even expected the Switch to be faster than the Xbox One/Playstation 4... But when hardware hasn't met a certain price/performance bracket, then it's not happening.

Concerning the 10 - 12 TFLOPS. That is what I keep seeing from people on various sites. I in no way see that as PS5 levels. IMO that would be a PS4 premium/ a step above the Pro.

 

For SSD prices see here:

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/236260-samsung-plants-to-slash-ssd-prices-to-hard-drive-levels-by-2020

I fully expect SSD prices to be well below HDD prices by 2021, and also in massively larger capacities.

 

On the same note, I expect HBM RAM to see the same massive cost reduction, and massive capacity increases over the next few years. 

 

Additionally as I said in an earlier post. I believe PS5 will come in multiple tiers from day one. Basically for example, I see a Ryzen 3 + Vega 56 + 64GB HBM + 4TB SSD at $400, R5 + Vega 64 + 96GB HBM + 8TB SSD at $600, R7 + Vega 64 WC + 128GB HBM + 16TB SSD at $1000. This is only an example, I know they won't be using Ryzen and Vega in 2021, and of course the RAM and SSD size will depend on advances/price by then. I just expect to see Sony continue to move towards being more and more comptetive with PC going forward. Yes they will have baseline hardware for the masses, but I expect them to continue to push for the enthusiast crowd as well. As I believe they will continue to drive to be the market leader in VR/AR which is going to take serious amounts of power. This is based on my expereince with VR, and the idea that it is going to become the next smartphone like boom in the tech industry.



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 01 September 2017
NATO said:

Truth be told the switch from last gen to current gen wasn't that big either.
Look at some of the last ps3 and xbox 360 games compared to ps4/xbo launch titles, there was very little improvement.

 

If you compare launch title to launch title there is, no doubt, a big difference, but in the end you're transitioning from games made after several years of getting to know the hardware and milking all they can out of it, to games made on newer hardware that the devs haven't had much time with. 

 

Even if the architectures the same devs still need time to fine tune engines and expectations to match what the processor, gpu.and.memory can handle. 

Isnt that kind of a redundant way of thinking though? Youre saying that comparing titles from the launch years are massively different, but that comparing titles made in the same few years they look the same, but then completely discount that 2017 and 2016 and even 2015 PS4 games completely outclass games that came out years prior on older platformers. Yes, it took this gen a little while to get off its feet, and ironically the consoles were much less powerful in their respective years than their predecessors. But that was kind of the same with PS3 AND 360 until about Gears 2/Uncharted 2