Prediction - PS3-PS4 and X360-XOne last big performance spec leap

[KBG29]

Pemalite said:

10-12 Teraflops in 2021?
If AMD continues the refinement of GCN like it has and continues to have a heavy emphasis on compute... And considering Vega 64 is almost 14 Teraflops while boosting... I would expect next gen to exceed that by a mile, especially if the chips are built at TSMC/Global Foundries 7nm process.

The ram amount realloy depends on the memory technology and how wide the bus width is.

If Microsoft/Sony opts for a memory bus that exceeds 256-bit like the Xbox One X's 384bit memory bus, then expect something more like 24GB of Ram if it's based around GDDR5X or GDDR6.

KBG29 said:

We should also be able to have SSD as a standard, and a very large pool of HBM RAM.

If mechanical Hard Drives continue to have the Capacity to Cost advantage, then an SSD will not happen.

Some games are already starting to exceed 100GB, Halo 5 could approach 150GB~ once it's been "Xbox One X Enhanced". - You won't get far next gen if game installs increase yet again and SSD's still haven't affordably smashed the 1 Terabyte barrier.

As for HBM. There are reasons why that is unlikely to happen as well.

It all comes down to price/performance, consoles are cost-sensitive devices, they typically use low-end to mid-range components that hit certain price points.

KBG29 said:

Remember also, every PlayStation to date has had ~16x the RAM of its predecessor. That would mean next gen consoles should have 128GB of RAM. It shounds crazy right now, but by 2021 it will make sense. Not only do we need to go from 2K to 4K assest, but we also have to do it twice for VR. Next gen consoles need to have a massive boost in power, memory, storage, and speed.

Ram density to Price ratios haven't improved like they have in prior years.

Hoping for 128GB of Ram is a silly expectation.

As for VR... That could all fizzle out by next gen, just like Motion Controls and 3D.

People made outlandish claims of what hardware to expect out of this console generation, some even expected the Switch to be faster than the Xbox One/Playstation 4... But when hardware hasn't met a certain price/performance bracket, then it's not happening.

Concerning the 10 - 12 TFLOPS. That is what I keep seeing from people on various sites. I in no way see that as PS5 levels. IMO that would be a PS4 premium/ a step above the Pro.

 

For SSD prices see here:

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/236260-samsung-plants-to-slash-ssd-prices-to-hard-drive-levels-by-2020

I fully expect SSD prices to be well below HDD prices by 2021, and also in massively larger capacities.

 

On the same note, I expect HBM RAM to see the same massive cost reduction, and massive capacity increases over the next few years. 

 

Additionally as I said in an earlier post. I believe PS5 will come in multiple tiers from day one. Basically for example, I see a Ryzen 3 + Vega 56 + 64GB HBM + 4TB SSD at $400, R5 + Vega 64 + 96GB HBM + 8TB SSD at $600, R7 + Vega 64 WC + 128GB HBM + 16TB SSD at $1000. This is only an example, I know they won't be using Ryzen and Vega in 2021, and of course the RAM and SSD size will depend on advances/price by then. I just expect to see Sony continue to move towards being more and more comptetive with PC going forward. Yes they will have baseline hardware for the masses, but I expect them to continue to push for the enthusiast crowd as well. As I believe they will continue to drive to be the market leader in VR/AR which is going to take serious amounts of power. This is based on my expereince with VR, and the idea that it is going to become the next smartphone like boom in the tech industry.