By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Prediction - PS3-PS4 and X360-XOne last big performance spec leap

KBG29 said:
monocle_layton said:

How strong will the new consoles be if they release in 2021? Slightly below a 1070?

If consoles launch in 2021, then they should be significantly stonger than any GPU on the market today. By 2021 7nm will be very mature, and with improved architecture 20+TFLOPs should be easy. We should also be able to have SSD as a standard, and a very large pool of HBM RAM. 

Remember also, every PlayStation to date has had ~16x the RAM of its predecessor. That would mean next gen consoles should have 128GB of RAM. It shounds crazy right now, but by 2021 it will make sense. Not only do we need to go from 2K to 4K assest, but we also have to do it twice for VR. Next gen consoles need to have a massive boost in power, memory, storage, and speed.

Ps5 will probably run vr pretty well but I imagine it will be the ps5 pro where it really shines 



Around the Network
fatslob-:O said:
Kerotan said:

I really hope this gen doesn't end before 2021. The power we have now is fine and I want the leap to be worth it. 

Exactly my thoughts, if we're going to make a jump it should be the most worthwhile of them all since next gen may very well be the last gen and I don't want our last games to suffer in technical quality just because of some premature move/planning/thinking ... 

This gen should last as long as the last one did ... (If Xbox 360 lasted 8 years then so should PS4 too.) 

We may suffer now since our update frequency is lower but it won't be so bad if our next gen consoles are backwards compatible at least devs can retroactively patch PS4 games to run better on it's successor ... 

PS5 should be ideally near 2x the power of Vega 64 with 16 GB of HBM3 sporting 2 TB/s of bandwidth ... 

I disagree. Why would you want to have just one big jump when you could just as well have regular steady improvements. People who don't want to pay money can still wait but it's overall better if we had steady new hardware releases every 2 years. Just letting people rot on their century old hardware isn't the best solution.

And with gradual improvements on hardware over the years backwards compatibility is basically guaranteed.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

KBG29 said:

If consoles launch in 2021, then they should be significantly stonger than any GPU on the market today. By 2021 7nm will be very mature, and with improved architecture 20+TFLOPs should be easy. We should also be able to have SSD as a standard, and a very large pool of HBM RAM. 

Remember also, every PlayStation to date has had ~16x the RAM of its predecessor. That would mean next gen consoles should have 128GB of RAM. It shounds crazy right now, but by 2021 it will make sense. Not only do we need to go from 2K to 4K assest, but we also have to do it twice for VR. Next gen consoles need to have a massive boost in power, memory, storage, and speed.

More memory isn't all that ideal, I'd rather have faster memory ... (PS4 would still be more power if it only had 4GB of GDDR5 so I'd prefer PS5 be 16GB of HBM3 than 32/64 GB of GDDR6.)

We're good on memory capacity as it is since devs are still going to be chasing prettier graphics at 1080p & 30fps ... (I can only tell that their dreaming of doing ray tracing.)

I still doubt SSD's will be cheap enough for consoles, needs to be no more than $0.03/GB otherwise we'll cheap out on other more important components ...

And 7nm will be old news by 2021, we'll be going to 5/4nm if Samsung can deliver ... 



vivster said:

I disagree. Why would you want to have just one big jump when you could just as well have regular steady improvements. People who don't want to pay money can still wait but it's overall better if we had steady new hardware releases every 2 years. Just letting people rot on their century old hardware isn't the best solution.

And with gradual improvements on hardware over the years backwards compatibility is basically guaranteed. 

The problem with steady improvements is that devs are too stubborn to take advantage of them, just one update is enough to keep them busy and crazy fragmentation isn't ideal either like we see with the N64 and it's expansion pak ... 

Plus you can just wait for the games to also improve with one big jump too if the devs decide to do a retroactive update ... 

We all want generational leaps every year but we can't have them cause transistor technology is progressing too damn slow!



To be fair with every new gen we have less graphic leap, going from PS3/Xbox 360 to PS4/XB1 is definitely smaller leap than going from PS2/GC/Xbox to PS3/Xbox 360, I expecting that next leap will be also smaller.



Around the Network
fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

I disagree. Why would you want to have just one big jump when you could just as well have regular steady improvements. People who don't want to pay money can still wait but it's overall better if we had steady new hardware releases every 2 years. Just letting people rot on their century old hardware isn't the best solution.

And with gradual improvements on hardware over the years backwards compatibility is basically guaranteed. 

The problem with steady improvements is that devs are too stubborn to take advantage of them, just one update is enough to keep them busy and crazy fragmentation isn't ideal either like we see with the N64 and it's expansion pak ... 

Plus you can just wait for the games to also improve with one big jump too if the devs decide to do a retroactive update ... 

We all want generational leaps every year but we can't have them cause transistor technology is progressing too damn slow!

They will have to learn to deal with that shit eventually. I don't see why they cannot do this when mobile and PC developers do this all the time. Consoles aren't special anymore. They use the same hardware as PCs and smartphones and they also have the same issues with digital downloads and patches and bugs and games running like shit. They have long lost their special status.

I also think that developers are proud enough to push their games with new hardware when more power is available. Games already run like shit on weaker consoles so why not just be honest upfront and admit that people will have a worse time on weaker hardware because games were made for stronger hardware.

The only reason why there isn't regularly new hardware is that console manufacturers are greedy and there is no competition to motivate them to release competitive hardware.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

KBG29 said:
I really hope that is not the case. People are seriously expecting PS5 to be a 10 - 12TFLOP machine with 16GB of RAM though. So perhapps you are right. If consumers are that unknowledgeable about console gens, then maybe the manufacturers do just offer half step products going forward.

10-12 Teraflops in 2021?
If AMD continues the refinement of GCN like it has and continues to have a heavy emphasis on compute... And considering Vega 64 is almost 14 Teraflops while boosting... I would expect next gen to exceed that by a mile, especially if the chips are built at TSMC/Global Foundries 7nm process.

The ram amount realloy depends on the memory technology and how wide the bus width is.

If Microsoft/Sony opts for a memory bus that exceeds 256-bit like the Xbox One X's 384bit memory bus, then expect something more like 24GB of Ram if it's based around GDDR5X or GDDR6.

KBG29 said:

We should also be able to have SSD as a standard, and a very large pool of HBM RAM.

If mechanical Hard Drives continue to have the Capacity to Cost advantage, then an SSD will not happen.

Some games are already starting to exceed 100GB, Halo 5 could approach 150GB~ once it's been "Xbox One X Enhanced". - You won't get far next gen if game installs increase yet again and SSD's still haven't affordably smashed the 1 Terabyte barrier.

As for HBM. There are reasons why that is unlikely to happen as well.

It all comes down to price/performance, consoles are cost-sensitive devices, they typically use low-end to mid-range components that hit certain price points.

KBG29 said:

Remember also, every PlayStation to date has had ~16x the RAM of its predecessor. That would mean next gen consoles should have 128GB of RAM. It shounds crazy right now, but by 2021 it will make sense. Not only do we need to go from 2K to 4K assest, but we also have to do it twice for VR. Next gen consoles need to have a massive boost in power, memory, storage, and speed.

Ram density to Price ratios haven't improved like they have in prior years.

Hoping for 128GB of Ram is a silly expectation.

As for VR... That could all fizzle out by next gen, just like Motion Controls and 3D.

People made outlandish claims of what hardware to expect out of this console generation, some even expected the Switch to be faster than the Xbox One/Playstation 4... But when hardware hasn't met a certain price/performance bracket, then it's not happening.

fatslob-:O said:

More memory isn't all that ideal, I'd rather have faster memory ... (PS4 would still be more power if it only had 4GB of GDDR5 so I'd prefer PS5 be 16GB of HBM3 than 32/64 GB of GDDR6.)

To a point.
Once you start hitting memory limits you need to make cutbacks to various assets, like texture quality.

I would prefer to have a wide and large pool of GDDR6 over a smaller pool of HBM.

32GB of GDDR6 should be feasible on a 256bit memory bus in 2021 and provide 512GB/s.
Or... It could be 24GB of GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus and offer 768GB/s of bandwidth.

Still under the belief that HBM isn't going to happen due to it's costs.

monocle_layton said:

How strong will the new consoles be if they release in 2021? Slightly below a 1070?

So not much better than the Xbox One X then?

In 2021 Pascal, Vega, Ryzen, Coffee Lake will all be "old news".




www.youtube.com/@Pemalite

vivster said:

They will have to learn to deal with that shit eventually. I don't see why they cannot do this when mobile and PC developers do this all the time. Consoles aren't special anymore. They use the same hardware as PCs and smartphones and they also have the same issues with digital downloads and patches and bugs and games running like shit. They have long lost their special status.

I also think that developers are proud enough to push their games with new hardware when more power is available. Games already run like shit on weaker consoles so why not just be honest upfront and admit that people will have a worse time on weaker hardware because games were made for stronger hardware.

Well, no since you have to keep constant investment in R&D/implementation with iterations instead of a new generation and plus that investment could go in vain when software moves in a radically different direction ... 

Console hardware may not be special anymore and I agree with you but for software that's a different story ... 

I don't think there are enough developers who want to push their games with new hardware when that group literally just boils down to western AAA publishers ... (less than AAA devs can't keep up and japanese devs are in a sorry state of engine development) 

Console gamers prefer their walled gardens if it means keeping a minimum baseline for games to technically flourish since there's arguably an advantage to be had in raising minimum requirements for game design instead of trying to make the game to be as cross-platform friendly as possible ... (nobody has resources to keep making specialized versions that tailors to every platforms so we have to make due with current gen consoles instead of making the game friendly also to last gen consoles and mobile platforms if it means getting a higher technical quality) 

Console gamers would rather not deal with evolving platforms or cross-generational games since they obviously want a consistent experience ... 



Pemalite said:

To a point. 

Once you start hitting memory limits you need to make cutbacks to various assets, like texture quality.

I would prefer to have a wide and large pool of GDDR6 over a smaller pool of HBM.

32GB of GDDR6 should be feasible on a 256bit memory bus in 2021 and provide 512GB/s.
Or... It could be 24GB of GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus and offer 768GB/s of bandwidth.

Still under the belief that HBM isn't going to happen due to it's costs.

@Bold Don't worry, we have 4 more years left and EUV has yet to take off ...  

And we have almost enough texture quality as it is so 16GB will be fine plus devs will probably target 1080p again ... 

Texture quality isn't the limiting factor in achieving better graphics. IMO, it's the lack of real-time physically based global illumination and we're almost close to solving the problem ... (need all of the next gen AAA games to be path traced otherwise we failed )



fatslob-:O said:
vivster said:

They will have to learn to deal with that shit eventually. I don't see why they cannot do this when mobile and PC developers do this all the time. Consoles aren't special anymore. They use the same hardware as PCs and smartphones and they also have the same issues with digital downloads and patches and bugs and games running like shit. They have long lost their special status.

I also think that developers are proud enough to push their games with new hardware when more power is available. Games already run like shit on weaker consoles so why not just be honest upfront and admit that people will have a worse time on weaker hardware because games were made for stronger hardware.

Well, no since you have to keep constant investment in R&D/implementation with iterations instead of a new generation and plus that investment could go in vain when software moves in a radically different direction ... 

Console hardware may not be special anymore and I agree with you but for software that's a different story ... 

I don't think there are enough developers who want to push their games with new hardware when that group literally just boils down to western AAA publishers ... (less than AAA devs can't keep up and japanese devs are in a sorry state of engine development) 

Console gamers prefer their walled gardens if it means keeping a minimum baseline for games to technically flourish since there's arguably an advantage to be had in raising minimum requirements for game design instead of trying to make the game to be as cross-platform friendly as possible ... (nobody has resources to keep making specialized versions that tailors to every platforms so we have to make due with current gen consoles instead of making the game friendly also to last gen consoles and mobile platforms if it means getting a higher technical quality) 

Console gamers would rather not deal with evolving platforms or cross-generational games since they obviously want a consistent experience ... 

They already don't have a consistent experience. This consistency claim is bullshit. It was maybe true in gen 6, but not anymore. They gain nothing through it and it brings no tangible benefit to them even if they like to claim so. All this resistence against regular hardware iteration is based on tradition and not logic.

PS4 Pro is doing just fine even though people tried to resist it. It did not hurt developers, consumers or  Sony. Or else they wouldn't have gone out of their way to make it. AAA developers have all the resources to make different versions or make a version that simply scales. RThey already have the resources to make their games for 4 completely different platforms. Smaller studios don't need to give a fuck because they won't have to adjust their games at all because they're just not that demanding. There would be no difference in their games between a PS4 version or a PS4 Pro 2 anyway.

What console gamers want doesn't mean shit because they don't even know what they want. They're not a homogenous mass.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.