By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Anyone still seriously saying the Switch is going to fail?

curl-6 said:
oniyide said:

i wanna know the justification for not thinking it wont do WIi U numbers

Because it's on track to pass or come close to Wii Us lifetime sales in its first year alone and still hasn't had a holiday season, most of its system sellers, hardware revisions, etc.

i meant what was his justification for thinking it wont even do Wii U numbers



Around the Network
oniyide said:
curl-6 said:

Because it's on track to pass or come close to Wii Us lifetime sales in its first year alone and still hasn't had a holiday season, most of its system sellers, hardware revisions, etc.

i meant what was his justification for thinking it wont even do Wii U numbers

Ooooh, my bad. This is what I get for trying to multitask.



mZuzek said:
Zekkyou said:

I don't really see a problem with that argument as long as the conclusions people take from it are consistent with the argument at larger. The Vita was marketed as a successor to the PSP, and is considered a failure. The PS4 was marketed as the successor to the PS3, and is considered a success. The Switch is currently marketed as the merging of Nintendo's markets, so people comparing it to a comparable 8th gen merging makes sense. It's ultimately fairly pointless (as with the majority of such comparisons), but the argument has no inherent logic breaks as long as it's presented wholly. At its core it's not much different than when people compare the overall sales of a brand in any given time period.

Well really Nintendo is marketing it as the successor to the Wii U, so by that logic it is already a success.

I can't say i agree with that, but it's ultimately not really relevant. As i said, the core of the argument is the same as when people compare total brand sales from any given period. In the absence of another system, Nintendo-specific versions of that argument will by default became Switch vs 3DS + WiiU (in the absence of Nintendo soon releasing another console). We can debate the usefulness of that comparison (i personally think it's fairly pointless no matter how you do it), but there's no inherent logic break.



I figure the only ones who make claims like that are just poking fun, more so to arouse Nintendo fans.



 

              

Dance my pretties!

The Official Art Thread      -      The Official Manga Thread      -      The Official Starbound Thread

mZuzek said:

And now, the realization that the Wii U has failed to match the sales of any mainline Pokémon game. Damn.

Best realization ever. Never thought of that..

Zekkyou said:

I don't really see a problem with that argument as long as the conclusions people take from it are consistent with the argument at larger. The Vita was marketed as a successor to the PSP, and is considered a failure. The PS4 was marketed as the successor to the PS3, and is considered a success. The Switch is currently marketed as the merging of Nintendo's markets, so people comparing it to a comparable 8th gen merging makes sense. It's ultimately fairly pointless (as with the majority of such comparisons), but the argument has no inherent logic breaks as long as it's presented wholly. At its core it's not much different than when people compare the overall sales of a brand in any given time period.

As rocket raccoon already pointed out, last time I checked, Nintendo still refers to Switch as a home console. With that said, I do see your point about if it were to be marketed as a successor to both it would be more fair. The comparisons don't bother me anyway, I guess I was just wondering the reasoning of it. Thanks for giving your opinion on it



[] [] [] {} [] 

Around the Network
mZuzek said:

It's not even so much about Nintendo treating it as a home console, it's just about how they're still trying to pretend the 3DS is relevant alongside the Switch (though yes, it seems like that won't be the case anymore in a near future... or at least we hope so).

This is also true. They just released the new 2DS and the Pokémon games are coming up too. I doubt it will continue to get this support next year but we'll see I guess. Switch seems to be headed towards enough success to give them the needed confidence to drop the 3DS entirely. To Zekks point, I do wonder if they will indeed market Switch differently once they kill off the 3DS.



[] [] [] {} [] 

Rain2 said:
mZuzek said:

And now, the realization that the Wii U has failed to match the sales of any mainline Pokémon game. Damn.

Best realization ever. Never thought of that..

Zekkyou said:

I don't really see a problem with that argument as long as the conclusions people take from it are consistent with the argument at larger. The Vita was marketed as a successor to the PSP, and is considered a failure. The PS4 was marketed as the successor to the PS3, and is considered a success. The Switch is currently marketed as the merging of Nintendo's markets, so people comparing it to a comparable 8th gen merging makes sense. It's ultimately fairly pointless (as with the majority of such comparisons), but the argument has no inherent logic breaks as long as it's presented wholly. At its core it's not much different than when people compare the overall sales of a brand in any given time period.

As rocket raccoon already pointed out, last time I checked, Nintendo still refers to Switch as a home console. With that said, I do see your point about if it were to be marketed as a successor to both it would be more fair. The comparisons don't bother me anyway, I guess I was just wondering the reasoning of it. Thanks for giving your opinion on it

No problem :) I should note though (expanding on what i said to mZuzek at the end of my last comment) that even if i think it's an acceptably coherent argument, it is also fairly pointless no matter how it's handled (at least in a vacuum). The 8th gen has been an overall install-base decline for Sony, yet i expect we'd agree the former has been a much brighter period for PlayStation. Likewise, it seems reasonable to predict that the Switch will mark a similar rise in prosperity for Nintendo regardless to whether it sells more or less than the 3DS + WiiU.



ArchangelMadzz said:
But I'm told by some here that if it sells what I think it will (45-50m) it will be a failure which makes no sense to me.

I think a more interesting topic would be one where you ask if there are still seriously people who think it'll sell half of the Wii's LT, considering we have multiple people in this thread alone.



Zekkyou said:

No problem :) I should note though (expanding on what i said to mZuzek at the end of my last comment) that even if i think it's an acceptably coherent argument, it is also fairly pointless no matter how it's handled (at least in a vacuum). The 8th gen has been an overall install-base decline for Sony, yet i expect we'd agree the former has been a much brighter period for PlayStation. Likewise, it seems reasonable to predict that the Switch will mark a similar rise in prosperity for Nintendo regardless to whether it sells more or less than the 3DS + WiiU.

I agree with that completely. Even if PS & Nintendo go into an install-base decline, they will both likely be seen as having better positioning going forward. (or at least within the current landscape)



[] [] [] {} [] 

PAOerfulone said:

Because Nintendo handhelds have always sold about 70 million, minimum. (The 3DS will get there eventually, in fact, it'll do it before the year is over and could end up at 75 million.)
The Switch is the 3DS' successor, as well as the Wii U's. Thus, it's getting every single bit of 1st party support that would previously be divided across 2 systems.
Thus, going from a combined figure of 75 million (3DS) or 88-90 million (3DS + Wii U) to just 45-50 million, despite getting all the signature Nintendo 1st party support (Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Fire Emblem, Metroid, etc.) + decent to great 3rd party support would be a colossal disappointment and failure. That would be Xbox One levels, which the Switch is absolutely demolishing at the moment, launches aligned.

That's true, but there are a lot of things to keep in mind. The 3DS launched before the Wii U, so any 3DS sales before the Wii U launch shouldn't be counted towards the combined figure (3DS + Wii U). Many Wii U owners also own a 3DS. The Switch eliminates the need for a second system, since it is combining the handheld and console markets. This will take 5-10 million off expected sales. Many 3DS owners bought two models, and the 3DS has a very low software attach rate compared to the Switch. 

Because of these factors I would consider a 60-70 million lifetime sales Switch to be a fantastic turn around. Especially if the attach rate of software and accessories stays as high as it is.