PAOerfulone said:
Because Nintendo handhelds have always sold about 70 million, minimum. (The 3DS will get there eventually, in fact, it'll do it before the year is over and could end up at 75 million.) The Switch is the 3DS' successor, as well as the Wii U's. Thus, it's getting every single bit of 1st party support that would previously be divided across 2 systems. Thus, going from a combined figure of 75 million (3DS) or 88-90 million (3DS + Wii U) to just 45-50 million, despite getting all the signature Nintendo 1st party support (Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Fire Emblem, Metroid, etc.) + decent to great 3rd party support would be a colossal disappointment and failure. That would be Xbox One levels, which the Switch is absolutely demolishing at the moment, launches aligned.
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That's true, but there are a lot of things to keep in mind. The 3DS launched before the Wii U, so any 3DS sales before the Wii U launch shouldn't be counted towards the combined figure (3DS + Wii U). Many Wii U owners also own a 3DS. The Switch eliminates the need for a second system, since it is combining the handheld and console markets. This will take 5-10 million off expected sales. Many 3DS owners bought two models, and the 3DS has a very low software attach rate compared to the Switch.
Because of these factors I would consider a 60-70 million lifetime sales Switch to be a fantastic turn around. Especially if the attach rate of software and accessories stays as high as it is.