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Forums - Nintendo - Failed Switch predictions of analysts

Zkuq said:

 

Expecting me to read every single post and open every single link in them is just stupid. I'm sorry, but that's what it is. You didn't even label your links properly so I had no idea what was going on behind them. Seriously, what should I expect from 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.'? Just because you posts links to something doesn't mean I'm interested in what's behind them, and because you say you posted links doesn't mean I have to look for every single post of yours in this thread just to see which ones contain relevent links. If you want to prove a point, you should provide me with the posts directly and not point me to all around the place.

When you replied the first time I told you I'd linked the threads from there on out you have the knowledge of the links I'm not going to hold your hand and label every link just in case you turn up in a thread that type of thinking is even more daft on your part tbh as I said if you don't read through the thread it's not really my problem, numerous people have even quoted both set of links.

What are you meant to think of links? Well take a guess you're in a topic about predictions of analysts so what do you think the links were going to contain in that post topics on how to prepare pasta bake, you're going on about how in hind sight blah blah but then those topic highlight that even before hindsight some predictions were just silly even more highlighted that at first you didn't think anyone would even make such predictions.



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Zkuq said:
Miyamotoo said:

But people don't think price is high, and that's why sales are so good and Nintendo can't keep with demand,most of people who thought like that didn't realise that Switch is real handheld and real home console in same time, and that offers two controllers out of box for multiplayer. Depends how you look at it, if you look like handheld its incredible strong (in handheld mode its stronger than Wii U/PS3/Xbox 360), if you look it like home console it weak but again its around 3x stronger than Wii U/PS3/Xbox 360, so at end, Switch is strong enuf for what it is. Zelda BotW wasnt only exclusive, and we talking about one of strong launch game ever. Targeting home console market and handheld market in same time was very smart and very logical, from start was obvious that will be one strongest Switch selling point.

Switch from start had 3 things that are among most crucial for success of Nintendo hardware, great concept, great system seller game like launch title, and great branding and marketing, and later great schedule of games where we have one bigger or stronger Nintendo game on around every month. That alone tells us that Switch will do much better than Wii U in any case, in comparison Wii U failed with all those things, but some people failed to see that and predict that Switch will faile.

People thought the price was high. There were complaints about it all over the place. You can't possibly have missed that. It doesn't matter what's happening now because that's hindsight. If you want to talk about the accuracy of predictions, you can't use information that's available only after the prediction has been made. Back when the predictions were made, there were lots of complaints about the price and no one had bought the console yet, let alone tons of people. Criticism about the price was a valid concern back then. Like I said: Turns out price is not a problem, but people had every reason to assume it was back then. Also, it's completely irrelevant what you get for the price if people feel like the price is high.

Let me try to clarify this. I'm not arguing Switch is too expensive, or too expensive for what it has to offer. I'm also not trying to argue those predictions before the launch were correct. I'm only trying to argue that criticism about the price was valid before the launch because there were lots of complaints about the price.

I never said Zelda was the only exclusive. Read my post more carefully before you imply anything more about what I say. You're also looking at the target audience part differently than me. I'm not arguing it's not smart to try to attract both the home console and the handheld console audience at the same time. Again, read my post more carefully to see what I actually said about it.

As to your last paragraph, I must once again direct you to read my previous post more carefully. I must also ask: Did you give any though to my post or did you just jump to opposing things in it without thinking what I might have meant? I'm just saying there were a lot of reasons why people might have been skeptical about Switch before its launch, so it's understandable why the predictions might have been skeptical too. There were a lot of things backing up the success of the console as well, but there were also many negatives, and seeing whether the good things of the bad things were going to prevail was a pretty difficult thing if you really tried to think about it and assess all the things.

In case you're still not getting it: I'm not arguing anything about whether Switch is successful now, whether it offers enough good things to consumers, whether it's powerful enough or not, or anything about what we know now. I'm only trying to argue how it seemed back then when the predictions were made, which is mostly before the launch and before we knew anything about how things actually turned out. Everything that's happened after the predictions were made is hindsight, and everything's easy in hindsight. The predictions were wrong, but there were good reasons to be skeptical. You can criticize the predictions all you want, but ridiculing them for more or less reasonable reasoning seems stupid to me.


Long story in short, my last paragraph proves my point, all things that I mentioned kill any possible concerns that Switch will fail. All those concerns of some people were very shallow, while in same time they ignore or they didnt were aware of crucial positive things because Switch will be success. It was very obvious that Switch will sell more than 4-5m in 1st year, but this "analysts" failed to see that.



"I'm only trying to argue that criticism about the price was valid before the launch because there were lots of complaints about the price."

Complaints about the price were valid because there were lots of complaints about the price????



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Wyrdness said:
Zkuq said:

 

Expecting me to read every single post and open every single link in them is just stupid. I'm sorry, but that's what it is. You didn't even label your links properly so I had no idea what was going on behind them. Seriously, what should I expect from 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.'? Just because you posts links to something doesn't mean I'm interested in what's behind them, and because you say you posted links doesn't mean I have to look for every single post of yours in this thread just to see which ones contain relevent links. If you want to prove a point, you should provide me with the posts directly and not point me to all around the place.

When you replied the first time I told you I'd linked the threads from there on out you have the knowledge of the links I'm not going to hold your hand and label every link just in case you turn up in a thread that type of thinking is even more daft on your part tbh as I said if you don't read through the thread it's not really my problem, numerous people have even quoted both set of links.

What are you meant to think of links? Well take a guess you're in a topic about predictions of analysts so what do you think the links were going to contain in that post topics on how to prepare pasta bake, you're going on about how in hind sight blah blah but then those topic highlight that even before hindsight some predictions were just silly even more highlighted that at first you didn't think anyone would even make such predictions.

I didn't expect you to have spread your links across multiple posts. I looked up one post and had no reason to assume there would be more. Also, I didn't talk anything about labeling every link individually. I gave an example of a horrible label that gave me no idea about what to expect.

This thread seems to originally be more about ridiculing predictions than properly discussing them, and that's how I'm going to treat links labeled with 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.' unless given a reason to treat them otherwise. Also, my main point wasn't even about there not having been such bad predictions. It was just a side remark because I hadn't seen any such low predictions myself, which I took as a sign of there not having been many such predictions. I was sure there must have been such predictions but not having seen any, I assumed they would be relatively rare. They still don't seem common to me.

Miyamotoo said:
Zkuq said:

People thought the price was high. There were complaints about it all over the place. You can't possibly have missed that. It doesn't matter what's happening now because that's hindsight. If you want to talk about the accuracy of predictions, you can't use information that's available only after the prediction has been made. Back when the predictions were made, there were lots of complaints about the price and no one had bought the console yet, let alone tons of people. Criticism about the price was a valid concern back then. Like I said: Turns out price is not a problem, but people had every reason to assume it was back then. Also, it's completely irrelevant what you get for the price if people feel like the price is high.

Let me try to clarify this. I'm not arguing Switch is too expensive, or too expensive for what it has to offer. I'm also not trying to argue those predictions before the launch were correct. I'm only trying to argue that criticism about the price was valid before the launch because there were lots of complaints about the price.

I never said Zelda was the only exclusive. Read my post more carefully before you imply anything more about what I say. You're also looking at the target audience part differently than me. I'm not arguing it's not smart to try to attract both the home console and the handheld console audience at the same time. Again, read my post more carefully to see what I actually said about it.

As to your last paragraph, I must once again direct you to read my previous post more carefully. I must also ask: Did you give any though to my post or did you just jump to opposing things in it without thinking what I might have meant? I'm just saying there were a lot of reasons why people might have been skeptical about Switch before its launch, so it's understandable why the predictions might have been skeptical too. There were a lot of things backing up the success of the console as well, but there were also many negatives, and seeing whether the good things of the bad things were going to prevail was a pretty difficult thing if you really tried to think about it and assess all the things.

In case you're still not getting it: I'm not arguing anything about whether Switch is successful now, whether it offers enough good things to consumers, whether it's powerful enough or not, or anything about what we know now. I'm only trying to argue how it seemed back then when the predictions were made, which is mostly before the launch and before we knew anything about how things actually turned out. Everything that's happened after the predictions were made is hindsight, and everything's easy in hindsight. The predictions were wrong, but there were good reasons to be skeptical. You can criticize the predictions all you want, but ridiculing them for more or less reasonable reasoning seems stupid to me.

Long story in short, my last paragraph proves my point, all things that I mentioned kill any possible concerns that Switch will fail. All those concerns of some people were very shallow, while in same time they ignore or they didnt were aware of crucial positive things because Switch will be success. It was very obvious that Switch will sell more than 4-5m in 1st year, but this "analysts" failed to see that.

Price is one of the biggest factors in any product's success, so I don't think you can dismiss problems with it that easily. You would have to argue why the positive things trump the price instead of simply stating they do. The other problems probably wouldn't be big enough on their own, but stuff can add up, especially if there's bigger problems in combination. Also, saying the analysts ignored or weren't aware of the positives seems ignorant in itself, because even if you're aware of those things, it can still be difficult to see whether the positives or the negatives will prevail. How do you know the price is not too high compared to the positives, for example? A hunch, maybe?

I thought a good bit about the situation myself, trying to assess both the positives and the negatives, and I can't really say I knew which ones would prevail because there were both strong positives and strong negatives. I'd say that without access to more data or other knowledge to make reliable judgement about the situation, you can at best have a good hunch about how things are going. Maybe your instincts are good and it's all obvious to you so you can make correct predictions, but I bet that's not the case for most people.

Pyro as Bill said:
"I'm only trying to argue that criticism about the price was valid before the launch because there were lots of complaints about the price."

Complaints about the price were valid because there were lots of complaints about the price????

OK, I guess I could have phrased that better. I meant that because there were lots of complaints about the price, it was reasonable to assume that people find the price high, which might hint towards weaker sales performance.



Zkuq said:

I didn't expect you to have spread your links across multiple posts. I looked up one post and had no reason to assume there would be more. Also, I didn't talk anything about labeling every link individually. I gave an example of a horrible label that gave me no idea about what to expect.

This thread seems to originally be more about ridiculing predictions than properly discussing them, and that's how I'm going to treat links labeled with 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.' unless given a reason to treat them otherwise. Also, my main point wasn't even about there not having been such bad predictions. It was just a side remark because I hadn't seen any such low predictions myself, which I took as a sign of there not having been many such predictions. I was sure there must have been such predictions but not having seen any, I assumed they would be relatively rare. They still don't seem common to me.

Then you must have been away from VGC for a long time because such silly predictions weren't hard to find even after launch some people still held out on such predictions it's only now that the realization is starting to kick in for them.

The original post had analyst predictions that were just as bad as those predictions are Wii U range numbers for 12 months so ofcourse they're going to get stick as well from, those predictions are in the same boat as the people in the links.



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Nem said:
Well... the switch did end up selling more than people predicted, but the recurring 3rd party problems won't be going away. Also curious to see what will happen and how long the hype effect will last. It seems the core Nintendo fans were still willing to forgive Nintendo for the Wii U, wich is surprising to me.
I'd like to see a study to know wich segment they managed to recapture or if this is a movement of their portable market.

 

I have a question, do you feel the 3ds/ds/gameboy line had 3rd party problems?

 

This next part not towards its just my observance, everytime I see a post that talk about 3rd party with Switch, all I keep thinking do people not count japanese developers when they say it will miss 3rd party games, because they already said they coming out with games, since they just got developer kits this year, some of these games will be coming in 2018, while the ones already completed coming this year. My question is do people only count western developers as 3rd party developers ? because from what 3ds/ds developers say about moving to Switch, I do not see the Switch having any 3rd party issues, just like any of their handhelds in the past and with it getting more indies than any system Nintendo created in the past, its obvious the system will have a lot of games. It is already 2 steps ahead of Wii U, the Wii U never had a NBA 2K, WWE  game that was built for it that also came with every feature as the other system even the preorder specials. The next big thing, Nintendo have all their developers together instead of split apart, in the past each year would have 7 3ds games every year with 4 Wii U games, so now with the Switch phasing out 3ds and Wii U, all 11 games Nintendo made a year for both systems can now come to 1 system, so having a game drought will be unlikely like the Wii U. 

 

I just think the system is getting 3rd party games, now if you prefer more western 3rd party games, be specific and say that, because saying no 3rd party make it seems like no one making games for it, but the truth is, everyone making games for it, it is just that the games from western developers is not there.

 

If you wondering where I got the idea Nintendo phasing out the 3ds, it comes from their developers, the first developer to say they not making any more games for the 3ds was the fire emblem team, all future games going to the Switch, and its common sense to know others will be doing the same

 

if you think Nintendo making a 2ds Xl make the 3ds line last longer, then you wrong, Nintendo also made a Game Boy Micro, after the Nintendo DS came out, so they always do something like that, it means nothing. They can say the switch a home console all they want, but japanese developers already know its a handheld if you read some of their interviews

 

so I ask again, what 3rd party will it be missing, because from watching 3ds/ds it will have a great life



I remember being pretty skeptical after the first presentation.
To be fair though, my major grievances with the Switch are still a concern. The online is a mess, there is no mic, there are motion controls, HD rumble is an unnecessary extra cost, and 1 2 Switch is an awful thing and I sincerely hope they abandon that path of gimmicky games.
But the overall hybrid concept was a complete winner and the console was really nice, which is what sold me and other people.
So I kinda ate my words. Also, ARMS was another thing where I did a complete 180.



morenoingrato said:
I remember being pretty skeptical after the first presentation.
To be fair though, my major grievances with the Switch are still a concern. The online is a mess, there is no mic, there are motion controls, HD rumble is an unnecessary extra cost, and 1 2 Switch is an awful thing and I sincerely hope they abandon that path of gimmicky games.
But the overall hybrid concept was a complete winner and the console was really nice, which is what sold me and other people.
So I kinda ate my words. Also, ARMS was another thing where I did a complete 180.

Nintendo has experimented on gimmicks since Duck Hunt. If they haven't stopped then, what makes you think they'll stop now? There's no harm in experimenting like 1-2 Switch as long as it doesn't get in the way of their bigger games, which hasn't been the case so far. Plus not everyone is like you or others and may actually like the game for what it is. Different tastes right?  Online, outside of a mic which isn't really necessary to me or the app which I haven't tried yet outside of Splatnet 2, has been pretty good to me personally. ARMS, which works great with both motion and traditional controls, and Splatoon 2 had little to no hiccups in my experience in terms of online. Maybe it's me personally, but I don't see the difference in online experience between Overwatch and Splatoon. HD rumble doesn't seem to sound that expensive and we'll see how they'll be utilized once devs become more familiar with the tech. So overall, it's still young and the library will keep growing over time.



Gemmol31 said:
Nem said:
Well... the switch did end up selling more than people predicted, but the recurring 3rd party problems won't be going away. Also curious to see what will happen and how long the hype effect will last. It seems the core Nintendo fans were still willing to forgive Nintendo for the Wii U, wich is surprising to me.
I'd like to see a study to know wich segment they managed to recapture or if this is a movement of their portable market.

 

I have a question, do you feel the 3ds/ds/gameboy line had 3rd party problems?

 

This next part not towards its just my observance, everytime I see a post that talk about 3rd party with Switch, all I keep thinking do people not count japanese developers when they say it will miss 3rd party games, because they already said they coming out with games, since they just got developer kits this year, some of these games will be coming in 2018, while the ones already completed coming this year. My question is do people only count western developers as 3rd party developers ? because from what 3ds/ds developers say about moving to Switch, I do not see the Switch having any 3rd party issues, just like any of their handhelds in the past and with it getting more indies than any system Nintendo created in the past, its obvious the system will have a lot of games. It is already 2 steps ahead of Wii U, the Wii U never had a NBA 2K, WWE  game that was built for it that also came with every feature as the other system even the preorder specials. The next big thing, Nintendo have all their developers together instead of split apart, in the past each year would have 7 3ds games every year with 4 Wii U games, so now with the Switch phasing out 3ds and Wii U, all 11 games Nintendo made a year for both systems can now come to 1 system, so having a game drought will be unlikely like the Wii U. 

 

I just think the system is getting 3rd party games, now if you prefer more western 3rd party games, be specific and say that, because saying no 3rd party make it seems like no one making games for it, but the truth is, everyone making games for it, it is just that the games from western developers is not there.

 

If you wondering where I got the idea Nintendo phasing out the 3ds, it comes from their developers, the first developer to say they not making any more games for the 3ds was the fire emblem team, all future games going to the Switch, and its common sense to know others will be doing the same

 

if you think Nintendo making a 2ds Xl make the 3ds line last longer, then you wrong, Nintendo also made a Game Boy Micro, after the Nintendo DS came out, so they always do something like that, it means nothing. They can say the switch a home console all they want, but japanese developers already know its a handheld if you read some of their interviews

 

so I ask again, what 3rd party will it be missing, because from watching 3ds/ds it will have a great life

That as quite the dissertation, although Nintendo has confirmed they will keep supporting the 3DS in 2018 aswell.

The third party problems are tied to power problems. The lastest triple A third party games that are pushing the industry on the ps4 and X1 just won't be part of the switch. So, the third party titles will always be the more modest titles that are less intensive. So far i have seen mostly shovelware, i have not even seen anything so far that may be comparable to 3DS third party support. So, no, i disagree. I think third party isn't too different from the Wii U so far. 



Barkley said:
Wyrdness said:
I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224655

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224602&page=1

TBH straight after Nintendo's January presentation I'd give people a free pass for reactionary posts.

That presentation was awful.

I was disappointed with it myself