Consolewarz4lyfe much lol?

There are a few articles out there mentioning the electronic components that Nintendo is said to have supply problems with for the Switch. (for example http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/812861/iPhone-8-Release-Date-Nintendo-Switch-Stock-Update-UK) They always mention the same components:

- the screen

- the "HD rumble" motors (=linear resonant actuators, or LRAs)

- the 32GB flash memory chip

But Nintendo can only be battling with Apple over one of those components anyway, because:

- no Apple hardware is using 6,2" screens with 1280x720 resolution like the Switch

- the iPhone is using a different linear resonant actuators. There is one device that seems to use exactly the same LRA, and that's the Oculus Rift controller - but Oculus Rift is selling hardly any units, so Oculus Rift can't be the problem either

That leaves the 32GB flash memory chips as a possible candidate for what parts Nintendo is battling for with Apple. And considering that, it might actually make sense that the supply situation might get better in fall, because by that time the next iPhone will be available, which some rumours believe will no longer have 32, but 64GB storage in the cheapest version, so Apples demand for 32GB chips might drop significantly in fall.

But on the other hand, such flash memory chips are built into lots of devices, from smartphones to the increasingly popular SSD disks, so it's unrealistic to believe that particularly Apple is to blame for the Switch supply problem; Apple is just one of thousands of manufacturers in demand of those chips, albeit a very big one of course.

War has changed

1) If they continue to ship at 2M/month, they cannot sell 10M units by year's end. Nintendo announced that they were at 4.7M sold by the end of June (including launch sales). At that rate, they end the year at 8.7M. The reason I think 10M is an unfair target is that, dismissing the current parts issue, people seem to forget that they loaded up units for the launch. Once they burned through that lot and established the crazy current demand, they were grossly under-prepared to manufacture at demand with no inventory. For reference, that inventory allowed them to sell ~33K/day (in the US), and now they are selling ~7K/day: that's a nearly 5:1 ratio. This type of dynamic is commonplace, but the closest analog I can think of is the PS4 launch. 

2) Maybe: as I pointed out before, it's not working out for the WiiU/X1. It's all relative to ultimate demand and how much has been sold through to the total addressable market. It seems likely, with the the current supply issues, that we will have no idea if these "system sellers" are system sellers at all. If they all release and demand remains unmet, there will be no discernible difference in sales. If the market demand is met after release, we will never know. If I had to bet, those are the games that people are waiting for.

3) I think this is a redundant point, if it's tied too closely to the demand of Switch/hardcore/Nintendo fans. Those people will buy the system: it's matter of when, not if. Mainstream/casual gamers are fickle and cannot be relied upon for consistency; if they could, the PS4 would have annihilated the X1: price, power, etc. When the emoji movie can get a 0 on RT and make 22MM its opening weekend, you really have to wonder how much they can be affected by shiny, new things.

4) How legitimate is this Apple chip issue? Does anyone know how much they're trying to crowd Nintendo out? I get the 100M phones bit, but it's getting super annoying fo us gamers.

1) You probably thought 2m per quarter. In any case like I wrote in OP, they can easily ship around 10m this year (currently is 4.7m, around 2m for of course July-September, and at least around 3m for holiday season). Nintendo is increasing number of manufactured and shipped consoles, and we already seeing on Japan weekly sales that last few weeks they are shipping far more consoles, just in last 3 weeks in Japan alone Nintendo sold 250k Switch consoles. I wouldn't pay too much attention on VGC weekly sales numbers.

2) Fact is that games like Splatoon 2 and 3D Mario are system sellers games in any case, and that demand for Switch will bigger with those games. Wii U comparison is not best comparison because Wii U had catastrophic sale and was considered for faile just after 1st year, so effect of system seller games on Wii U was very limited even fact that SM3DW, MK8 and Splatoon did boost sales of Wii U.

3) Very important point is that Switch is not bought only buy Nintendo fans, it has much wider appealing, and you already have plenty of people that are not Nintendo fans who bought or indent to buy Switch. Also, Switch is hybrid it will bought by Nintendo handheld and Nintendo home console lowers.

4) Apple chip issue is not 100% confirmed, in any case Nintendo few time stated they will increase shipments from July and August and further increase of shipments from Fall, and we already seeing increased shipments on Japanese market.

1) 4.7 +2 + 3 = 9.7 < 10, which is still just short. Is it possible? I really don't know. Is it asking a lot of a manufacturer to ramp up like that? Probably. Until they stop selling out, I don't think they'll care too much, though lol.

2) WiiU or X1 are perfectly fine comparisons, because they were temporarily sold out, had sales boosted by new releases, met market demand, and leveled off. It's the eventual fate of any console, but the honeymoon sellout period makes it hard to tell if games impact sales. When the day comes that the Switch is readily available, we will be able to establish a baseline sales rate. After that point, we will be able to identify the sales increases caused by new releases. Judging by current demand, we are a ways away from knowing either.

3) I agree with you here on the need and the likely outcome: it caters to 2 markets, so it only makes sense that people from both markets will purchase one.

4) I honestly don't know enough about this issue to make any firm statements, but there are variable contentions on parts that could be issues and how much an issue they possible present.

Don't make ma laugh, lol.

1) SMO isn't the only game Switch is getting this holiday, 2) The system is attractive enough for those who wasn't able to buy it since launch because of shortages, 3) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will do wonders this holiday season WW, and things like Splatoon 2 will own Japan in december, 4) Even other systems are cheaper, they're not portable devices. Many see Switch as continuation of 3DS and expect portable franchises on it soon, incl. blockbusters like Pokemon and Animal Crossing. PS4 and Xbox are not a portable devices.

Also, in Europe situation differs from country to country. In UK its selling out since launch, and in France, where Switch is selling faster than Wii, you can't buy it just like in Japan. In US its selling out, too. Plus, the fact that system is available on shelves doesn't mean it's not selling good. Nintendo is selling more consoles in PAL/Rotw region than it Japan.

So, too bad for you, but Switch is a success and here to stay. it will own this Christmas.

1) I said around and at least 6 (around 2m, and at least 3m), it doesn't really matter if its 9.7m or 10m exactly, that still around 10m this year. Like, I wrote, we already seeing increase shipments of Switch, and how times goes shipments will be only bigger because increased manufacturer.

2) No, Wii U is terrible for comparison because we talking about failed console and worst selling Nintendo console ever. Wii U was sold out only in first two weeks during holiday season, that doesn't mean nothing, shortly after that Wii U was actually overshiped and that's why in Europe for instance Wii U later had negative shipment.

Don't make ma laugh, lol.

1) SMO isn't the only game Switch is getting this holiday, 2) The system is attractive enough for those who wasn't able to buy it since launch because of shortages, 3) Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will do wonders this holiday season WW, and things like Splatoon 2 will own Japan in december, 4) Even other systems are cheaper, they're not portable devices. Many see Switch as continuation of 3DS and expect portable franchises on it soon, incl. blockbusters like Pokemon and Animal Crossing. PS4 and Xbox are not a portable devices.

Also, in Europe situation differs from country to country. In UK its selling out since launch, and in France, where Switch is selling faster than Wii, you can't buy it just like in Japan. In US its selling out, too. Plus, the fact that system is available on shelves doesn't mean it's not selling good. Nintendo is selling more consoles in PAL/Rotw region than it Japan.

So, too bad for you, but Switch is a success and here to stay. it will own this Christmas.