Switch will easily hit 10m at end of this year

[Miyamotoo]

Insidb said:

Miyamotoo said:

1) You probably thought 2m per quarter. In any case like I wrote in OP, they can easily ship around 10m this year (currently is 4.7m, around 2m for of course July-September, and at least around 3m for holiday season). Nintendo is increasing number of manufactured and shipped consoles, and we already seeing on Japan weekly sales that last few weeks they are shipping far more consoles, just in last 3 weeks in Japan alone Nintendo sold 250k Switch consoles. I wouldn't pay too much attention on VGC weekly sales numbers.

2) Fact is that games like Splatoon 2 and 3D Mario are system sellers games in any case, and that demand for Switch will bigger with those games. Wii U comparison is not best comparison because Wii U had catastrophic sale and was considered for faile just after 1st year, so effect of system seller games on Wii U was very limited even fact that SM3DW, MK8 and Splatoon did boost sales of Wii U.

3) Very important point is that Switch is not bought only buy Nintendo fans, it has much wider appealing, and you already have plenty of people that are not Nintendo fans who bought or indent to buy Switch. Also, Switch is hybrid it will bought by Nintendo handheld and Nintendo home console lowers.

4) Apple chip issue is not 100% confirmed, in any case Nintendo few time stated they will increase shipments from July and August and further increase of shipments from Fall, and we already seeing increased shipments on Japanese market.

1) 4.7 +2 + 3 = 9.7 < 10, which is still just short. Is it possible? I really don't know. Is it asking a lot of a manufacturer to ramp up like that? Probably. Until they stop selling out, I don't think they'll care too much, though lol.

2) WiiU or X1 are perfectly fine comparisons, because they were temporarily sold out, had sales boosted by new releases, met market demand, and leveled off. It's the eventual fate of any console, but the honeymoon sellout period makes it hard to tell if games impact sales. When the day comes that the Switch is readily available, we will be able to establish a baseline sales rate. After that point, we will be able to identify the sales increases caused by new releases. Judging by current demand, we are a ways away from knowing either.

3) I agree with you here on the need and the likely outcome: it caters to 2 markets, so it only makes sense that people from both markets will purchase one.

4) I honestly don't know enough about this issue to make any firm statements, but there are variable contentions on parts that could be issues and how much an issue they possible present.

1) I said around and at least 6 (around 2m, and at least 3m), it doesn't really matter if its 9.7m or 10m exactly, that still around 10m this year. Like, I wrote, we already seeing increase shipments of Switch, and how times goes shipments will be only bigger because increased manufacturer.

2) No, Wii U is terrible for comparison because we talking about failed console and worst selling Nintendo console ever. Wii U was sold out only in first two weeks during holiday season, that doesn't mean nothing, shortly after that Wii U was actually overshiped and that's why in Europe for instance Wii U later had negative shipment.