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Forums - Sales - Why the Switch will never sell like the DS unless...

TH3-D0S3R on 07 June 2017
Soundwave said:
TH3-D0S3R said:
I would say that a Switch could be appealing to casual audiences, specifically parents with kids. Recently, I always see parents needing to buy a distraction for their kids so they can play games on long drives and not be obnoxious. The number one device I see around myself that parents buy for young kids is an iPad. The Switch resembles closely to an iPhone/iPad sort of device, and the games on it would intrigue kids like they are intrigued by home consoles and handhelds. On top of that, $300 competes very well against expensive tablets like the iPad.

Personally I think if it can continue the core gamer/family friendly gaming device, this thing could possibly (personally I say easily) beat the Wii. The PS2/DS sales I think are actually achievable, but not likely. For now I think Nintendo is in a good place and keep the momentum of the Switch at full speed.

The problem there is like you said ... most parents already have a tablet for their kids. 

Switch is going to have to make hay with an older audience with more disposable income who reeeeeally want more complex game experiences than a tablet can offer, I think the kids market is less reliable for Nintendo going forward because mobile appeals so much to kids, and parents love it too. 

My parents would've been over the moon if NES and Super NES games cost $0 instead of $60-$70 a pop, so it's not hard to see why parents love just giving their kids a tablet and letting them sit immersed in that for hours and hours on end. 

$300 can buy you a pretty high end Android tablet too ... it doesn't neccessarily have to be an iPad. Even $200 really. 

I tend to look at it in this way; parents who can buy their kids their own tablet on a dime HAVE disposable income. However, just because you have disposable income doesn't mean people aren't stingy with money. This is why I like the approach Nintendo is currently taking in their advertising. Not only can you knock out the home console for the family, but on top of that it serves as a tablet for gaming and a distraction for kids. Let's say a family wants to buy a tablet for their kids to play on the way to a vacation and also a console so they all can play games together. Switch fills this market too well. Would you rather want the $200-$300 tablet combo'd with the $250-$300 PS4/X1, OR, would rather just pay $300 for the Switch that fills that gap for families by letting kids play their games on the tablet and let's the family game together.

This is the potential I see for the Switch and the casual market. Only time will tell if this prediction becomes reality.



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Nymeria on 07 June 2017

I'm not sure any system will ever hit DS or PS2 levels again. Smart phone market is massive in gaming, especially among younger gamers and in certain markets (ex: China and Japan).

The Switch could be a massive success and sell 90-110 million units and that's great.



Soundwave on 07 June 2017
TH3-D0S3R said:
Soundwave said:

The problem there is like you said ... most parents already have a tablet for their kids. 

Switch is going to have to make hay with an older audience with more disposable income who reeeeeally want more complex game experiences than a tablet can offer, I think the kids market is less reliable for Nintendo going forward because mobile appeals so much to kids, and parents love it too. 

My parents would've been over the moon if NES and Super NES games cost $0 instead of $60-$70 a pop, so it's not hard to see why parents love just giving their kids a tablet and letting them sit immersed in that for hours and hours on end. 

$300 can buy you a pretty high end Android tablet too ... it doesn't neccessarily have to be an iPad. Even $200 really. 

I tend to look at it in this way; parents who can buy their kids their own tablet on a dime HAVE disposable income. However, just because you have disposable income doesn't mean people aren't stingy with money. This is why I like the approach Nintendo is currently taking in their advertising. Not only can you knock out the home console for the family, but on top of that it serves as a tablet for gaming and a distraction for kids. Let's say a family wants to buy a tablet for their kids to play on the way to a vacation and also a console so they all can play games together. Switch fills this market too well. Would you rather want the $200-$300 tablet combo'd with the $250-$300 PS4/X1, OR, would rather just pay $300 for the Switch that fills that gap for families by letting kids play their games on the tablet and let's the family game together.

This is the potential I see for the Switch and the casual market. Only time will tell if this prediction becomes reality.

The problem with this is $129.99 gets you this:

8-inch higher resolution screen than Nintendo Switch to boot --

Tablets are damn cheap these days. Honestly most kids will be happy with either one. Shit when I was a kid all we had was a Game Boy or WalkMan with a couple of cassettes that you could listen to 20 songs to and some books maybe on trips. Kids these days have full blown multimedia centers/computers for like a hundred bucks with thousands of games available for free and cartoons on them. Kids are lucky these days. 



couchmonkey on 07 June 2017

1. I see a lot of "this can never happen again", without any explanation why. The world population is going up. The U.S. economy is improving. It should be easier than ever to sell the most consoles of all time -unless you believe tablets and smart phones are the future.

2. Are tablets and smartphones the future? The pricing is attractive on their software, but it's also a pretty different class of software than a console/handheld offers. The only real evidence that these devices have disrupted handheld consoles is the weak sales of 3DS and PS Vita. That's pretty good evidence, but I wouldn't say it's infallible, Nintendo and Sony didn't really bring it with those two consoles, and Switch is off to an amazing start by comparison.

3. When considering Switch sales potential, nobody should compare to home consoles anymore, we should view Switch as a portable that can also hook up to your TV.

4. As a couple of people have pointed out, Switch also brings some new possibilities to the market (two player portable gaming on one console) which is where I think the "X factor" on the Switch is. This is what could push Switch past DS, though I wouldn't bet on it. This type of feature certainly stands to push it past 3DS, whose key feature may have been a liability instead of an asset.

5. The price can be changed any time, but I do think Nintendo has opened up a very small risk of being disrupted by someone offering a more value-oriented handheld. Luckily for Nintendo, Sony has never really been focused on value pricing in the gaming market, so it would probably take a new entrant (very unlikely) to disrupt them.



iLikeEggs on 07 June 2017

People like the concept of the Switch. More importantly, in contrast to the Wii U, people actually KNOW what the Switch is. Now, Nintendo needs to deliver a steady stream of quality games, akin to the PS4 (though likely not as robust). As sales improve, hopefully more and more 3rd parties jump on-board, thereby improving the appeal of the Switch even more. So, bottom-line: maybe? You never know. I'm just glad that this isn't a repeat of the Wii U. Those were miserable times haha



Hi

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HyrulianScrolls on 08 June 2017

I think the 8th gen Pokemon games being the open world/mmo-esque games everyone has been dreaming of for so long would be what Switch needs to get it to Wii success, But DS/PS2 seems pretty unreasonable. For any console in the foreseeable future really.