1. I see a lot of "this can never happen again", without any explanation why. The world population is going up. The U.S. economy is improving. It should be easier than ever to sell the most consoles of all time -unless you believe tablets and smart phones are the future.
2. Are tablets and smartphones the future? The pricing is attractive on their software, but it's also a pretty different class of software than a console/handheld offers. The only real evidence that these devices have disrupted handheld consoles is the weak sales of 3DS and PS Vita. That's pretty good evidence, but I wouldn't say it's infallible, Nintendo and Sony didn't really bring it with those two consoles, and Switch is off to an amazing start by comparison.
3. When considering Switch sales potential, nobody should compare to home consoles anymore, we should view Switch as a portable that can also hook up to your TV.
4. As a couple of people have pointed out, Switch also brings some new possibilities to the market (two player portable gaming on one console) which is where I think the "X factor" on the Switch is. This is what could push Switch past DS, though I wouldn't bet on it. This type of feature certainly stands to push it past 3DS, whose key feature may have been a liability instead of an asset.
5. The price can be changed any time, but I do think Nintendo has opened up a very small risk of being disrupted by someone offering a more value-oriented handheld. Luckily for Nintendo, Sony has never really been focused on value pricing in the gaming market, so it would probably take a new entrant (very unlikely) to disrupt them.
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