The PS4 had a stronger first months but Wii still fared much better for the first  few years. It's the staying power that's going to allow PS4 to surpass the Wii.

So I'd bet it will be surpassed but later rather than sooner.

In less than a year Ps4 will be at 80m minimum, in 2 years it will probably have eclipsed Wii already so by 2020/2021 Ps4 should be way way ahead of it.

PS4: 4,480,444 (NA + EU, Global sales start until week 15)
XBO: 3,153,778 (NA + EU, PAL and JP don't start until 10 months later...but only a small boost)
Switch: 3,124,256 (Global Launch)
Wii U: 2,334,873 (Global sales start week 3)
3DS: 2,099,941 (Global sales start week 6)
Vita: 605,184 (JP only, Global sales start week 11)

Added the global launch tags to put things into perspective, instead of random number flying about. Also as much as people like to say it matters, a holiday launch does not matter. A launch is going to sell out of the hardware regardless and it's all about supply and demand.

Vita pretty much struggled until it started doing well in JP, and even then it still never took off. 3DS, XBO, and Wii U all share a similar story. They all did very well in the early launch window (IMO launch window is the first 3 months of sell), but fell off a cliff by their start of their 3rd month (Wii U fell into a bottomless pit). 3DS and XBO sales jumped when they had their price drops, Wii U could have done the same, but Nintendo refused to take another loss or break even on sales.

The 3DS vs PS4 vs Switch, will be the only interesting sales comparison, unless Switch suffers from the same nose dive in sales (which I won't happen due to Mario Kart releasing).

Based on sales now, PS4 is going to lead against the Switch:

*NA PS4 will do better in the long-term while Switch has small victories here and there in anticipation for big releases.
*EU PS4 will dominate like it's been doing already.
*JP Switch will dominate like it's been doing.
*RoW PS4 will likely dominate considering the PS3 beat not only 3DS, but Wii and squeezed a win against DS in RoW regions.

The real battle for Switch is the 3DS. 3DS Year 1 was around 13.8m, thanks to the price drop from $250 down to $169.

Doubtful.

PS4 shipments were at 60 million as of March 31, 2017.

Sony projects 18 million (down 10% from last year) for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2018 bringing the total to 78 million.

The fiscal year ending March 31, 2019 will likely be around 15-16 million bringing the total to 93-94 million.

From there PS4 will still need to ship another 8-9 million so it will likely surpass Wii right around the end of 2019.

Things are gettting interesting, if rumours about Ninty boosting production are true.
In this case, PS4 and NS will tie for the fiscal year, but PS4 would win 2017 calendar year

I must admit that Switch's figures are impressive. Apart from 3DS all those consoles lunched during holiday season and it's only been beaten by PS4. Also it's worth mentioning that it's the only one that hasn't dropped below 200k/week so far.

I'm kind of glad it does very good numbers :)

*cough*

Platform	N. America	Europe	Japan	Global
	148,479	92,248	75,834	364,625
	45,476	77,300	25,175	182,792
	41,908	25,559	142	78,319
	22,469	12,945	22,754	60,836
	333	2,410	6,083	11,163
	809	2,138	467	3,773
	278	1,176	404	2,605
	425	489	N/A	1,146

Yay update time!

Switch is now ahead of XBO