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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Console Market Grow in the 9th Generation?

 

Will the 9th Gen Console Market Be Larger or Smaller than the 8th Gen?

Larger 30 28.57%
 
Equal 22 20.95%
 
Smaller 53 50.48%
 
Total:105
Paperboy_J on 23 May 2017

I don't know, but it will be interesting to see. "Better graphics" is not a huge selling point anymore like it used to be (shut up, no it isn't) and I really don't think brand loyalty alone can carry the industry forever. There needs to be innovation, new and exciting things happening, for the industry to grow.



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Lawlight on 23 May 2017
zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:
Why are all the graphs showing home consoles + handhelds? Handhelds are dead so, of course, there will be a decline in total hardware. I want to see graphs without the handhelds.

I dont have graphs but here are rough estimations based on Vgchartz and/or Wikipedia numbers

Gen 2 ~35 million

Gen 3 ~80 million

Gen 4 ~95 million

Gen 5 ~150 million

Gen 6 ~210 million

Gen 7 ~275 million

Gen 8 ~100 million (and growing, will probably end between Gen 6 & 7)

I think you mean Gen 8 will end up between Gen 5 & 6. 100M for the PS4, 40M for the X1 and 14M for the WiiU.



Lawlight on 23 May 2017
Soundwave said:
Shadow1980 said:
The market for home consoles arguably reached a saturation point of sorts in Gen 6, at least when it comes to conventional consoles. The PS3 & 360 had combined sales about the same as that of the PS2 & OXbox, and it's entirely possible that the PS4 & XBO, perhaps in large part due to how similar to the two systems are and how the XBO struggled early on and has failed to rebound and gain significant traction outside the U.S. & UK, fail to even reach that 180-190M mark. Both systems did not see any significant growth last year (in fact, they were down YoY in the U.S.), and may be passing their peaks if they haven't done so already. While evidence suggests that last generation there were quite a few household that had both a 360 and PS3, it's possible that the portion of gamers who owned both a PlayStation and Xbox system has declined this generation. I still think the PS4 will end up at around 100-110 million, while the XBO may end up at only half that, putting the Gen 8 market for conventional systems at only 165M, an approximately 13% drop from the roughly 190M of last gen. I do not think we will see a similar drop with the PS5 and Xbox 4, however.

Nintendo has been the wild card, going from 22 million units (GameCube) to 102 million (Wii) to less than 14 million (Wii U). Now the Switch is looking to see Nintendo rebound yet again. However, what generation the Switch belongs to is a contentious topic among many gamers. It's own successor is likely to arrive maybe at most three years (maybe only two) after the PS5 and Xbox 4 launch. The Switch's odd mid-gen launch will probably do more to prevent the cyclical rise and fall of the overall console market this go around than grow the market. It will hitting its peak no later than 2019, a point where the combined PS+Xbox market will be at its new nadir (assuming a 2020 launch for the PS5 & Xbox 4). It will meanwhile decline in sales while the PS5 & XBO start to gain steam, and the Switch successor will likely release before the PS5 & XB4 peak and will itself peak no more than a year or two after the PS5 & X4 do. For the entire period of 2017 to 2023, I think we'll see annual console sales hover in the 13.5 to 15 million range in the U.S., and 37-40M globally (the U.S. representing 35-40% of the global market).

Of course, I've excluded handhelds from this commentary so far. The 3DS, while a very successful system in its own right, represents a big drop from the absolutely massive DS, which was an absolute beast that, for whatever reason, far exceeded anyone's expectations and was a PS2-level success that will be hard to replicate. Likewise, the PSP was the first and only non-Nintendo handheld to achieve widespread mainstream success, something the Vita has completely and utterly failed to do. Between the 3DS and Vita, the handheld market shrunk from about 235M last gen to only about 80M so far.

The Switch is a hybrid system, and it's entirely possible that it will fully supplant the 3DS within a year or two. If so, then Nintendo is effectively putting all its eggs in one basket. The 3DS has so far pulled down something like 65 million units and still rising; it could still end up in the 75-80M range. Add the Wii U to that and you have roughly 90-95M units for Nintendo platforms released in the 2011-13 window that was the start of the current generation. The Switch could potentially do that, but if it's going to be carrying Nintendo all by its lonesome it's going to have to continue being very successful, something that's entirely possible, perhaps even guaranteed, if and when the next main series Pokemon game comes to the system. Even with just the Switch, Nintendo will likely not prove to be a hindrance for the overall hardware market in the coming years. While the 3DS, Vita, and Wii U collectively are responsible for the gen-over-gen decline from Gen 7 to Gen 8, I think the overall hardware market is starting to stabilize, and Nintendo being out of sync with Sony & MS will as mentioned make the overall hardware market less prone to large swings between zeniths and nadirs like it used to have (assuming they don't have another Wii U-level failure after the Switch, and MS & Sony don't do anything to really rock the status quo boat).

Nintendo doesn't really care which generation they belong to. 

I don't think there will be a "traditional" Switch successor in an old fashioned sense either, Switch will play by new rules, there will be a higher end Switch in 3 years ... yes I can see that, but the current Switch won't go anywhere. 

I think Nintendo is going to adopt a high price tier/lower price tier 1-2 combo from here on out, which they basically are already employing with the current Switch and 3DS. They'll just replace 3DS with the current Switch once that becomes cheaper and then have a new higher end model after a few years (and probably more models in both tiers too). 

I think Nintendo had no choice but not to care about generations. They would still be following traditional generations ignoring the WiiU sold better.



bdbdbd on 23 May 2017

I voted for growth, and here's why:
1. As GB and GBC were put into different generations in the list, by the same logic, N3DS, PS4 Pro and Scorpio are already in the 9th generation along with the Switch.
2. I see Switch being a huge software seller.
3. The indie devs have been making their way on different platforms for some years now, and we're likely to see lots of their (better) games on consoles in the upcoming years.
4. There's lots of demand in the market - as proven by Wii - for the right product, and I'd see Switch having huge potential to fill that gap.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

zorg1000 on 23 May 2017
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont have graphs but here are rough estimations based on Vgchartz and/or Wikipedia numbers

Gen 2 ~35 million

Gen 3 ~80 million

Gen 4 ~95 million

Gen 5 ~150 million

Gen 6 ~210 million

Gen 7 ~275 million

Gen 8 ~100 million (and growing, will probably end between Gen 6 & 7)

I think you mean Gen 8 will end up between Gen 5 & 6. 100M for the PS4, 40M for the X1 and 14M for the WiiU.

yep i did mean between gen 5 & 6.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Turkish on 23 May 2017

I dont think it has grown since the PS2 era, but it doesn't need to grow really.

I think the share of hardcore+core casual gamers has stagnated since the PS2: about ~140-160 million. It's the Wii/DS era non-gamers that give a distorted picture. Those people were never into gaming and didn't stick around when the hype was over.

PS360 has the same amount of sales as PS2-minus 1/3rd userbase(if you count them as the non-gamer, Singstar, Eyetoy crowd), add Gamecube and Xbox= ~150-160M

PS4+Xbone+WiiU= likely gonna end up with ~150-160M between them

If the Switch is a success, say +80M, PS5 also gets to 100M, Xbone 2 does a little better than Xbone 1, it would be another healthy console market generation.



zorg1000 on 23 May 2017

pretty much any growth relies on Nintendo as the PS/XB home console market has been stagnant for 3 straight generations.

PS2+XB & PS3+360 each did right around 175-180 million, PS4+XBO will either sell in that range or lower.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

piopakk on 23 May 2017

That is obviously very hard to predict.
It certainly depends on the consumer base, their needs, interests and age! People today are averagely largely older gamers, than before, and they will certainly get older. Current kids generation will get older. I think it has to be seen from that perspective in order to determine general market potentials.
Also as countries in Africa and East asia get more cash in their hands, through better job salary their luxury living potetial rises, equals potential more gaming consumers.
And as China opens even more up for gaming, their gaming market matures steadily I would think, raising the market penetration.
Further I believe that the console gaming business will continue to rise in overall global revenue, it has until now, and outpaced music and movie revenues. Why should that stop with the 9th generation?
And as long as there are multiple competitors, the market is competable and highly interesting for consumers, based on options, advertising, etc.



Barkley on 23 May 2017

Probably not, it will be difficult for PS5 to outsell PS4+Vita.

It will be difficult for Switch to outsell 3ds+WiiU

It won't be quite as difficult for the next Xbox to outsell XBO... no idea what will happen there.

So it's not very likely in my opinion.