im not going to consider that because its not true, SW sales & profit are not proportional to HW sales.

There are many ways Nintendo can be more profitable despite lower hardware sales.

1. Selling hardware at a profit. 3DS was sold at a loss for a full year after the initial big price cut and Wii U was sold at a loss for the majority of its life. This was one of the main reasons they posted losses for a few fiscal years.

2. Streamlined development. They just recently completed the merging of their various software teams and are now working together in a single building. On top of that, developing and creating games/engines for a single platform is more cost/time efficient than developing for two seperate platforms.

3. Reduced hardware R&D costs. Just like with software, Nintendo has merged their hardware teams together and for Switch they abandoned using an exotic chipset and opted for a much more modern and less customized design.

4. Increased 1st party software sales. With a single unified platform all of Nintendo's games will be available to their full audience unlike previous generations. For example, Wii U accounts for less than 20% of their overall hardware sales last generation, that means games exclusive to Wii U were unable to sell to their full potential. Same with 3DS but to a much smaller extent.

5. Increased 3rd party support. Wii U & 3DS did not have support of some of the major 3rd party game engines. Wii U had poor sales resulting in lack of support. 3DS on the other hand had a sizeable install base but did not have support of the major game engines such as Unity or Unreal. Switch having support of the major game engines along with a sizeable install base leads to a higher chance of strong support resulting in higher revenue from 3rd party royalties.

6. Online subscription service. Nintendo is set to release their own paid subscription service for online games. This likely wont make a huge difference right away but in a few years Nintendo could have tens of millions of subscribers. Lets say three years from now Nintendo has 20 million subscribers at $30, thats $600 million in revenue in a single year.

7. Increased digital sales. Nintendo in the last few years has embraced selling games digitally along with DLC. These things have a higher profit margin than physical sales and Nintendo is likely to continue moving in this direction.

8. Increased accessory sales. Unlike 3DS, Switch does not have a clamshell design so things like screen protectors and carrying cases are far more needed. Extra controllers is another big one, Wii U had a low install base meaning a low number of people looking to buy extra controllers, nevermind the fact that Wii controllers were compatible with Wii U so many Wii U owners already had multiple controllers. On top of that Switch has things like additional docks & charging grips/stands.

The combination of all these things will likely see Nintendo post far healthier profit with Switch than they did with 3DS+Wii U.

If you look to the history of predictions in my signature (which I never erase) I stick to every prediction for at least a year. And I intend to continue to do so. And even when I make new predictions, I tend not to deviate far away from the previous ones.

My predictions come from macro-analysis and they are for long periods of time. Some of them are bold but sometimes they are actually more right than the thinking in vogue at the time. Like X1 selling 70% of PS4 when both were perfoming similar and X1 had more margin to lower the price + Halo yet to come. Like the WiiU selling 25M when most people were pointing to 80M-100M. Like X1 selling 40M when today people think that's an incredibly low number. And now the Switch, where no one is sharing my view at the moment but some months/years later that can be common sense.

...Or I'm wrong and then I failed at my analysis. I will be here with my signature intact to accept the mistake. I'm not Johnlucas, who makes insane predictions with no basis and then runs when things get sour. Then it's cheap to be crazy. Try to do what I do and then you'll feel the burden that makes you to be as neutral and rigorous as possible.

Ok, I get you. If everything turns out and you say, you may have a point. But, even still, it will be a small success.

Your prediction for the Switch looks just as crazy as johnlucas prediction (200M) for the Wii U to me, just wanted to point that out.

Why are you combining the PS3 and the PSP, as well as the PS4 and the Vita?

why is the OP combining Wii and DS, as well as Wii U and 3DS?

Hi guys, Aren't you tired of doing the same thing every day?

this makes me want to listen to NIN

Lot of overlap in that 250m figure.

Given the undeveloped state of mobile gaming at the peak of the DS, Wii households typically had at least one DS. The DS itself became a collectible with all the special editions, further padding that install base figure.

The prospect of the Switch taking back market share from mobile in addition to whatever is left of the dedicated handheld market (zero growth/eroding niche) alone would make it a success given the state of Nintendo's console market following the Wii U.

So sure; by the numbers, even if the Switch squeaks past the 80m mark, it means they will have only sold the same number of hardware units as their previous generation, but the reality is that the back to back hits of the DS and Wii will in all likelihood never happen again in the console/handheld market, no matter whose name is on the product.

You think that Switch will have a higher attach ratio than Wii U? I find that very hard to believe, especially with the expectation of 40-50m HW sold at minimum.