Well look, the FACT here is that ioi adjusts Wii sales UP and 360 sales DOWN in a ratio from the raw data.

I'm 100% sure, and he hasn't denied it. 

Again, none of you seem smart enough to comprehend the simple fact that hmm, ioi is scaling all the raw data by some multiple. And in the case of Wii, that multiple, which was probably already pretty high because ioi already knows he has to shoot for high NPD Wii numbers judging by past months, was the only one out of all the systems that produced an estimate far too LOW. The Wii was the ONLY SYSTEM in this condition. That means, as of last month ioi had to raise the Wii multiple significantly in order to try to get an more accurate forecast the next month (unless he wants to shoot 20% low on Wii sales again..follow me? Or is this too hard for you guys and you can go back to BUBUBU CONSPIRACY THEORY LOL because you cant understand basic math).

Again, I'll spell it out again because I know we have trouble comprehending simple maths.

Wii estimate=Wii raw dataXmultiple=estimate.

If estimate is too low when npd comes in, raise multiple in the future.

If multiple is high after being raised again and again, then Wii raw data is low.

If Wii Raw data is low, that means confirmed sales numbers from a non-NPD source are low. Which I'm 100% sure is the case. 

 Wii multiples are higher than other systems for the raw data. Wii sales numbers must be multiplied by a bigger number than any of the other systems to match NPD. Because we have to assume ioi started with similar multiples for all systems. Then had to raise the wii multiple. Again, given past month's low wii prediction versus all the other systems, this is pretty much fact. Whatever ioi's algorithm, he had to do SOMETHING to artificially make the Wii number higher this month or risk being innaccurate and underpredicting Wii NPD again. Period. That something is raising the multiple. It's the only way.

Why hasn't ioi simply come in here and said "no this is false, in my raw data Wii outsells 360 2-1 or more just as in the NPD's". Why? Because it isn't true. 

ioi doesn't patrol the forums 24/7.

And you haven't responded to why Microsoft lowered their shipment numbers from 13-15 million down to 12 million. Maybe you know something Microsoft doesn't?

 So what? This doesn't mean anything. Almost all of those 12m are sold in the United States. Besides, what are Wii shipments to America? Without knowing those, why dont you tell me them, it's impossible to compare and say one is selling more in USA than another (let alone 3 times as much as Wii is supposed to be selling according to NPD)

Again, tell me what Wii shipment projections to just America are so far, from Nintendo, for the same time frame as the MS 12m number, and we'll begin to have a actual basis for apples to apples comparison. Until then, it's meaningless. To say Xbox60 shipments have slowed with no basis for comparison tells us nothing. MS overshipped the previous quarter, that's why they cut shipments this Q. They could still be outselling Wii 100-1 for all it tells us in a vacuum.

So ... what you're saying is ... ignoring the fact that Microsoft OVERESTIMATED their shipping, ignoring the fact that NPD has the Wii outselling the 360 for the past 4 months, and ignoring the fact that the PS3 worldwide has sold more PS3s to date than the 360 did this time last year (and with the PS3s current performance, that is a bit teling), we should ASSUME based on adjusting numbers that the 360 is outselling the Wii? Oh, well then yes, 360 wins.

"and ignoring the fact that the PS3 worldwide has sold more PS3s to date than the 360 did this time last year "

Proof? I doubt it. Strongly, strongly doubt it. 

You keep pointing out ms overestimated their shipping, without realizing the basic fact it tells us NOTHING about how many they are selling in recent times, as that depends on how many are left overshipped from previous Q, which we dont know either. 

I dont think the 360 is outselling the Wii. However, it might not be being beaten quiet as badly as the NPD's, I have a hunch.

BTW, even by NPD, who has sold more in America since Wii launched by the way? I think you'll find that's Xbox360. Let alone PS3.

Yeah, this theory gets a (insert thumbs down picture here).

Your just stating opinions, but don't have any evidence. You're also misinformed such as the "90% of Walmart" comment. NPD doesn't measure Walmart.

I've been lurking to date, but I had to register to explain to this guy what's going on.

Look, I don't know how the system works, but let's suppose it's as you say - ioi has worked out an algorithm for extrapolating NPD numbers from a small sample that he tracks. As ought to be obvious to everyone, the formulae clearly only apply as long as the numbers of Wiis/360s sold throughout the US (which is presumably what the NPD reports) continue to bear the same relationship to the number of Wiis/360s that ioi actually knows about. What happened last month? Wii sales in the US skyrocketed. Now, you could write this down to fraud immediately, or you could remember that Nintendo's been promising to increase supply for a while now, and was arguably creating an artificial shortage earlier.

Let's suppose for a moment that the NPD numbers were accurate - the Wii sold like crazy. If the Wii sold like crazy, is it reasonable to expect that the total US sales could still be extrapolated by the same formula from tracked sales? Of course not. We already have anecdotal evidence and common sense that tell us that Nintendo would have altered relative shipping allowances - Toys R Us wouldn't have seen many more Wiis, while Gamestop's would have seen many more. Unless ioi's tracked data is exactly representative of the stores in the US, this would have skewed his formula. His Wii numbers were low because he couldn't anticipate a large surge in the supply of Wiis.

That, to me, seems a far more reasonable explanation than NPD bias. I mean, given that ioi's only been trying to hit the NPD numbers, it just seems absurd to take his findings as the more accurate, since what he's doing is essentially curve-fitting.

The problem, sharky, is that your entire argument seems to consist of "I bet" and "I doubt it." It seems to be an emotional argument you're making, because you just feel the 360 should be doing better than it is. Which on the face of it says nothing about actual numbers, because you have no data to present. NPD is the only truly "official" source available to us, the public, and it has no reason to misrepresent its numbers. It would be called out on that as soon as any manufacturer could discern a substantial difference between its own records and the NPD numbers, and that would destroy NPD's business. NPD has absolutely no reason to bias its numbers -- its whole business rests on achieving as much accuracy as possible. The reason ioi's numbers differ from NPD is that he doesn't have access to as much data, or even the same types of data, as NPD does -- different stores may see very different sales ratios for various consoles. The VGchartz model is still being developed, and adjustments are to be expected. It has improved quite dramatically since its early days -- within 15% this last time, just about, which is very good. Unless you can say, look, I know that this store sold NNN 360's and XXX PS3's and YYY Wii's, and I estimate they represent M% of the market, based on their sales of other products historically, so therefore... You really have no argument to make.

Hmm, sharky is to 360 as Hus/Washimul are to PS3.

So by sharky logic,  I bought a book, so did my friends, but its not on the bestseller list.  It must be selling WAY more than is being reported.  There must be a conspiracy against the books publisher.

Grow up.  Just go back and play Halo and leave us alone.

Well, unless you think VGCharts is conspiring against Microsoft, you can check hardware shipments.

Launch till March 2006 - Xbox 360 - 3.19 million
Launch till March 2007 - PS3 - 5.5 million

I'm not even sure what you're trying to prove anymore. That the numbers for the 360 are being low-balled? Well, that's a good thing for Microsoft then, right? It means more 360s are out there than others say. Regardless, this topic is spent.