So I'm thinking, things certainly are on the upswing for the PS3 in 2008.  Sales are picking up with big software on the way, like MGS4/FFXIII/Home?LBP etc. .  So maybe they catch 360 by the end of 2009/early 2010, to be optimistic.

 My question is, how much do they have to "win" by in this gen to actually "win"?  Because no matter what happens, they will have lost a signifcant amount of market share this generation when compared to the last.  18 months in, the decade-old PS2 is still outselling it, or at least keeping pace.  And they aren't exactly moving software off the shelves with the notable exception of COD4 and GT5:Prologue. 

 I see a lot of optimism here for PS3 and I have a lot myself.  But I'm not sure why when I really break down the numbers.  Will they make money?  Yes.  Will they end up passing 360 worldwide?  Likely. 

 It's like if the New England Patriots go 13-3 next year and lose in the AFC title game.  They had a winning season most teams would love, but to them, is it good? 

Just looking for thoughts, not flame war,please.

1/ they will finish second, not sure how much behind the Wii, maybe very close, maybe quite far.

2/ Sony will at best, recover ALL the money invested in the PS3 (3 billions$ ?)
but they will not really make money.

3/ they will not win but they will not lose either.

4/ of course, they will lose their supreme domination in the console world.
Ninty is back and MS will still be present.

5/ they will succeedly created and IMPOSED the BR, more cash for them.

/yawn /ignore.... /uningnore

I hardly doubt sony is interested in beating user base of each console. A business cares more about making money. They set themselves up for the future to make more money. I think it's a win for them.

/ignore

ps2 120 mill
xbox 25 mill

ps3 60 mill
360 35 mill

if it would play out like this
how would you call that

or

ps3 50 mill
360 30 mill

?


either way
sony will have lost SIGNIFICANT market share


or do you believe the ps3 will rise up to the 100 mill sales?

I expect the big three companies to be a lot like the Auto industry. They are all going to have good and bad generations, but they have all built strong foundations to live on for a long time. It's going to be hard for Sony to pull another killing strike against any of them like they did to Sega.

I have a feeling Microsoft is going to pull out with the 360 being its last console if they finish the generation in third place. But that would be their choice, not because they will Dreamcast.

Sony still shows power from its previous generations. Regardless of such a high price tag and every worst-case scenario happening, it seems to stand against the bad weather and move strong at the moment.

The Wii, well, I don't get it. I have one and I still don't get it. It's there and I don't like it, but I understand a lot of other people do and that's why it's doing good.

@FOOD
I dont think M$ will pull out of console making if they finish third, they have a huge grasp on America that itd be ridiculous to just let it go.

I think Sony learned a lot this generation and needed to "lose" to progress further.

Well, even without winning outright, the PS3 has accomplished making blu-ray the only high-definition physical media. Also, it has served as a proving ground and learning platform for the cell architecture, so that if they stick with the cell for the next console, the developers will not have as step a learning curve.

Also, losing this generation does not mean that they will lose every generation hereafter. See the comeback kid Nintendo as an example.

Who knows, maybe the PS3 could make the whole concept of "Generations" irrelevant.

I just hope the Wii's success doesn't screw up the next generation.
Nintendo Wii2
Sony Playstation Wii
Xbox Wii

You have to consider the ps2 is still selling at 150k+ world wide, sony isnt really loosing market share if we count the ps2.