It seems to follow a very similar trajectory to Splatoon so far.
I loved it as soon as it was revealed while a lot of people where meh on it or didn't like it at all. The more info releases the more people come around to it.

I think, yeah, it might be able to do it.

It's a new IP from one of Nintendo's main teams. With Splatoon's success, I'm not counting out ARMS, especially since hands on previews show promise and there's more to come.

I'd bet you on that, actually. Until year's end sounds good?

I'm pretty sure no one went for over 5 million, though.

can you name them?

We'll see, I still don't believe it will reach splatoon like number but it can still be a success.

I'm in. Looking back at wonderful 101 which only did 410k lifetime and looked way more promising I will stand by what I said.

Take also into consideration that a second player would need 2 additional joy-cons for 80€ to fully appreciate the controls. This is one more reason of lower sales expectations. 

The game would have a far better chance for selling around 20€. But, like I said, this is my own opinion and I stay by it until proven wrong.

Thinking about it, I don't really have anything to bet, considering my account is empty... Any suggestions?

Anyways, I base my confidence on the fact that it's a 1st party title that Nintendo is marketing heavily, and that it already has 3 skus charting on Amazon Japan.

I don't see why not it doesn't have much competition and a lot Switch owners need games.

I would guess no. It's launching at a really good time when people will likely still be enthusiastic for the Switch, and early adopters will want something new. But, it's a fighting game, and those typically don't move huge numbers. Then again, I was one of those saying 750K for Splatoon, so what do I know.