I was looking through the yearly hardware sales here on Vgchartz and saw that since 2008 every year has seen less hardware being sold than the last. I knew that this generation has been doing worse than the previous but I was surprised to see that the decline is still continuing. Can 2017 change this and we see the first YOY increase in hardware sales since 2008?

One thing I want to point out is that these numbers dont include PS2 sales, which sold about 30 million from 2008-2011 so the decline is actually more severe.

Some things that could potentially cause a YOY increase are the launches of Nintendo Switch & Xbox Scorpio along with PS4/XBO possibly having their peak years this year but can those counter the inevitable decline of 3DS, Vita, Wii U, PS3 & 360?

According to this site Wii U, PS3 & 360 sold close to 2.5 million last year and this year will likely see the complete death of all 3 of them. probably 500k between the 3 of them.

Vita sold about 2 million last year and based on Media Create it has seen a 50% YOY decline so far this year in Japan (its strongest region) so it could very well sell less than 1 million this year globally.

3DS sold about 7 million last year but with major software releases starting to disappear and Nintendo beginning to focus on Switch, a decent sized decline is likely to happen. Im going to go with about 4.5 million this year.

I could see PS4 and XBO being up or down this year but either way I see it only being a slight increase or decline, not enough to offset the decline og the other systems i went over so basically its up to Switch to push 2017 over 2016 sales and end the nearly decade long decline.

My predictions

PS3/360/Wii U-500k combined

Vita-about 1 million

3DS-4.5 million

XBO-8 million

PS4-17 million

NSW-12 million

Total-43 million

I believe 2017 will see the first YOY increase in hardware sales since 2008.

The decline is likely to continue as all consoles are likely to be down, the only positive is that Wii U will no longer be sold so its successor will increase HW in that market. I would say the same for Vita, but no successor exists so that market is going to completely die.

Should be noted most hardware losses is due to the fall of the handheld market and Wii to Wii U.

MS loves to spout XB1> 360 in same timeframe and PS4 is obviously > PS3.

So unless the Switch takes place of the 3DS+ Wii U+ Vita, hardware will still probably fall. It is unlikely as Nintendo likes to keep profit with its HW.

I be more pessimistic
PS3/360/Wii U-500k combined

Vita-about 1 million

3DS-3.5 million

XBO-7 million

PS4-15 million

NSW-9 million

Total-36 million

So I guess the losses might stabilize, depending on Switch performance. Which is pretty much unpredictable.

Yes, because of the Switch.

it could because of the Switch adding to the PS4, and those two will do the heavy lifting

Scorpio isn't going to have anything close to a significant effect on the sales trajectory of X1, it's going to be around 9m or so again at absolute best, more likely 8m.

Hmm... that's a good question. Just as you've done, OP, I'm gonna try to break this down console by console. I'll also try to be generally optimistic with my estimates, after all, I don't want another decline :(

PS3: With it being discontinued in Japan soon, and the overall trajectory going massively downwards, I'd say reaching 200K should really be the goal here.
X360: Considering it's already been discontinued, shops are likely to be just flogging the last of their stock and when it's gone, it's gone. Probably 100K.
Wii U: Once again, it's already been discontinued, so it's a similar story to the 360. In this case though, I'd suggest 200K.
PS Vita: The Vita's been going down for a few years now, and with the introduction of the Switch, that decline could well speed up. I think that Japan could see a a drop to about 400K but Europe should hold better at 600K, and then with the rest of the world (inc. the US), the Vita should be able to manage 1.2 million.
3DS: Last year's 7 million is really nothing to go by. With the Pokemon GO craze followed by the launch of Sun and Moon, the sales last year can't be used as a reliable reference point. Looking at this year, we can see that there are basically no new games coming (aside from FE: Echoes and MHXX in Japan, both of which aren't system sellers because any fans already have a 3DS). Also, the Switch is the 3DS's replacement, meaning anyone who wants a Nintendo portable is probably gonna look there. I'm gonna be generous and say 3 million.
XB1: I have to say that Microsoft have really gotten off to a slow start this year, which certainly won't help them reach a peak year. Looking forward, the exclusives list for Xbox, especially without Scalebound, is looking waaaaay too thin. I don't think the Scorpio will have much of an impact just like the PS4 Pro didn't. I'll say 7 million.
PS4: Despite a phenomenal start to year, the PS4 reaching a peak year may be harder than some think. Last year there were two hardware revisions, VR, and fantastic system sellers like FFXV and Uncharted 4, yet it still performed with slightly less sales than in 2015. Having said this, the PS4 does have a lot of momentum from the start of the year, and the relative weakness of the Xbox One, in addition to a slew of system sellers to come this year. I think that the PS4 is probably gonna hit 18 million.
NSW: Now this is the wild card. I know that the system has gotten off to a great start but from here on out, there are gonna be a lot of droughts with only Splatoon in the summer and Super Mario Odyssey in the holidays looking to be real system sellers. I think 8 million is probably a sane bet, but I could certainly see it going over that with luck on Nintendo's side.

So then, what's the total? About 37.7 million. So yeah, I think that this year will see a very slight increase in hardware sales. Going forward, I expect to see console sales stabilise at between 35-40 million a year. Hopefully that's enough to be able to sustain the market :/

Yes, I think so.

Will depend entirely on the Switch, but if strong sales keep up then we should see a reversal.

You should rename the topic to "decline in dedicated handheld market" because really that's what's been declining.

Tag

You forget to take digital sales into account. Especially digital XBox One sales are over 80% already. source