i expected more but good for BR
I expect dvd to still control 75% throughout 2008 and at least 65% in 2009. I don't see blu-ray outselling dvd till 2011.
Manchester United 2008-09 Season - Trophies & Records
Oh, the numbers are US/Canada only. The transition will take longer over here.
| kenzomatic said: I think a main reason your seeing such a quick adoption of blue-ray vs dvd (in terms of new releases) is it's not so much a new technology as a upgraded one. What I mean by that is people already know about discs. But I do not think you will see the replacement of dvds like we saw with vhs. ie people buying movies they already have on dvd with a few exception. Right now I think download is to DVD as DVD was to VHS. IMO |
You have to remember that people still use VHS for taping programs. I still do it. I know the picture and sound quality diminishes quickly, but it's easier to tape the programs.
Regards Blu-Ray disk prices - There is alot of variation in price one shop i went to has many disks around $35 aud , while another only walking distance away is $40-$50aud for the same titles !. Online shopping in AU one place is doing buy 2 get 1 free which works out to $27aud each (this is cheaper than new release DVD's which are usually $29 to $30aud)
Sony have an optional RRP for their discs of 26USD i think.( in Au many places will sell items lower than RRP or higher )
And Amazon have many specials and discounts which are under $20USD per disk.
My suggestion is shop around.
If you know other people with players it's also handy to swap disks,
And some DVD rental places are starting to have blu-ray rentals now.
PS3 number 1 fan
Blu Ray is wiked, i know 2 people on the web who bought a PS3 just for blu-ray.
Blu-ray has been nothing short of impressive this year. It will continue to grow, especially when the holidays roll around.
I currently own over 100 blu-rays and the purchases have been worth every penny.....and I know a LOT of people that are planning on picking up standalone blu-ray players once the prices get around $200.
Movies prices are already dropping. I just bought a ton of blu-rays online, brand new for $7.99 each the other day---NEW MOVIES...Good Luck Chuck, Saw IV, War, etc.
PSN ID: Sorrow880
Gamertag: Sorrow80
Wii #: 8132 1076 3416 7450
More like blue-ray claims 6% of the devices-you-play-movies-on but since that poll doesnt cover portable media players and people watching movies on the computer...
Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).
| Kasz216 said: Actually it makes more sense to compare everything. Here's 3 assumptions why. Assumption 1. Early adopters to Blu-ray are likely more hardcore movie buffs. Assumption 2. Hardcore movie goers are more likely to buy movies the days they release. Assumption 3. The top 20 are likely mostly comprised of movies that have just released. Assumption 4. Sales the first few weeks are likely not very frontloaded. A lot less so then for example videogames. In otherwords, they were basically cherry picking to make themselves look good. Like when microsft talks about how it's console has generated the most revenue despite being outsold by everyone in terms of pure numbers of stuff. Don't underestimate the market of people who just walk in and end up buying movies they never intended to get... etc.. |
Wrong.
Lets say you own a restaurant. You serve a special from 5pm-8pm. (you open the doors at 11am). You get curious to see how well the specials you serve are doing. You can not compare your whole sales vs the specials. You have to take the sales from the times available and find out the % of total sales from those times.
Now in a retail sense.
To measure growth rate you can NOT compare an already established movie library to a brand new format. You need take the % of each format to see how well its doing. IE Harry Potter. That's why Warner chose to support Blu-ray. They didn't compare their whole DVD collection sales to only a couple of their HD movies, but rather compared movies that had all three formats to see each percentage.
Now let's say I collect stamps. It took me 20 years to collect the ones I have, and have been collecting on average 2 per month (I was only collecting 1 per month for my first 11 years, and 3 per month for the 9 years.) I introduce my son to stamp collecting. I collect 4 every month now but he collects 1 per month. A year later I start collecting only 3 per month and he starts collecting 2 per month.
Now if I were comparing his growth compared to mine would I say "but I've been collecting all of these stamps before you were even interested. I have 100 times more stamps than you have" Or would I compare it to when he started getting into it compare mine and when I was a novice.
His growth rate is far superior to mine (my 1 per month for 11 years vs his 1 per month for 1 year than it grows to 2), but I have far more than he does.
PooperScooper said:
Wrong. Lets say you own a restaurant. You serve a special from 5pm-8pm. (you open the doors at 11am). You get curious to see how well the specials you serve are doing. You can not compare your whole sales vs the specials. You have to take the sales from the times available and find out the % of total sales from those times. Now in a retail sense. To measure growth rate you can NOT compare an already established movie library to a brand new format. You need take the % of each format to see how well its doing. IE Harry Potter. That's why Warner chose to support Blu-ray. They didn't compare their whole DVD collection sales to only a couple of their HD movies, but rather compared movies that had all three formats to see each percentage. Now let's say I collect stamps. It took me 20 years to collect the ones I have, and have been collecting on average 2 per month (I was only collecting 1 per month for my first 11 years, and 3 per month for the 9 years.) I introduce my son to stamp collecting. I collect 4 every month now but he collects 1 per month. A year later I start collecting only 3 per month and he starts collecting 2 per month. Now if I were comparing his growth compared to mine would I say "but I've been collecting all of these stamps before you were even interested. I have 100 times more stamps than you have" Or would I compare it to when he started getting into it compare mine and when I was a novice. His growth rate is far superior to mine (my 1 per month for 11 years vs his 1 per month for 1 year than it grows to 2), but I have far more than he does. |
No you miss the point. Buy counting ONLY the top 20 what you are doing is only counting recent releases. Which have the problems stated above.
The correct way to do it would be to compare all Blu-ray movies sales with all DVD sales of the same movies.
Using the top 20 leads to a bias towards hardcore movie buyers who are a vast minority.
You need to compare ALL of the blu-ray movies. If your goal is "If we made every movie in blu-ray."
When you want to measure how much of the market bluray controls, then you have to compare it all. Since
that's actually what "how much of the market blu-ray controls" means.
How many total sales are blu-ray.
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