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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales- Switch Year 1 vs 3DS and Wii U

konnichiwa on 23 November 2017
RolStoppable said:
konnichiwa said:

I believe they can but Nintendo almost never had the stock to surpass 100K in sales except for once with SMO and now they will have 6 weeks in a row while the West is also asking for more stock?

Shipments are going to increase by a significant margin. Absolute minimum for the holiday quarter is 6m globally, of which Japan should receive about 30%, so 1.7-2m.

Switch was at ~1.7m by the end of September, so even a conservative estimate should push it barely ahead of Wii U lifetime sales by the end of 2017.

6 million seems to low to achieve that target.

Last year the Xbox one sold 2.9 million alone in USA from  Oct/ December and must have shipped way more.

A 3 million Switch shipment for NA seems to low + 1 million for Japan + only 2 million for the rest of the world? 






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zorg1000 on 23 November 2017
konnichiwa said:
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course, with next week sales we entering holiday season and Nintendo definitely will prepare and ship much more units for holiday season compared to previous weeks. Nintendo recently said they increased production and they will start shipping much more units, and their plan is to ship around 7m Switch units during Q4 and of course most of that will go through holiday season.

Well that's the thing, Japan holiday season isn't like the West.  End december/january is popular for holiday releases and the famous winter sale that you may compare like ours (end november/December) That's why I expect them to send more to the West (and I guess now also a shipment to Korea) having 100K stock available weekly till end december should be an achievement.

More will be sent to the west but Japan will still get a sizeable shipment.

Shipments as of Sept 30 2017-7.62 million

Japan-1.95 million (~25%)

Outside Japan-5.67 million (~75%)

 

They will ship 6-7 million this quarter and using the 25/75 split gives us 1.5+ million for Japan and ~5 million for the West.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

konnichiwa on 23 November 2017
RolStoppable said:
konnichiwa said:

6 million seems to low to achieve that target.

Last year the Xbox one sold 2.9 million alone in USA from  Oct/ December and must have shipped way more.

A 3 million Switch shipment for NA seems to low + 1 million for Japan + only 2 million for the rest of the world? 

I said absolute minimum for a reason. Kimishima also said that 14m for the full fiscal year is not the limit of their production capacity, just like he did when Nintendo made their original forecast of 10m.

My point was and is that even the worst case scenario is likely to make Switch pass Wii U lifetime in Japan by the end of 2017. Actual shipments may very well match or exceed 7m for the quarter.

I know but I am sure you also not expect it to be much more than 7million this quarter.  

What will the shipments be for NA? Eu(including rest of the world)? Japan? 

If at the end of the september it was at 1.7 million it needs a shipment of 1.6 million to reach WiiU's LTD.

It means their is only 5.4 million left for the rest of the world?  

Xbox one did 2.9 million alone in the USA in that quarter, but if we take all NA regions the shipments must be atleast 3.5 million.

3.5 million Switch shipments for the region doesn't seem to much or will Switch be third place this holiday?  

That means they only have 2 million Switch shipment left for the rest of the world. 






Miyamotoo on 23 November 2017
konnichiwa said:
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course, with next week sales we entering holiday season and Nintendo definitely will prepare and ship much more units for holiday season compared to previous weeks. Nintendo recently said they increased production and they will start shipping much more units, and their plan is to ship around 7m Switch units during Q4 and of course most of that will go through holiday season.

Well that's the thing, Japan holiday season isn't like the West.  End december/january is popular for holiday releases and the famous winter sale that you may compare like ours (end november/December) That's why I expect them to send more to the West (and I guess now also a shipment to Korea) having 100K stock available weekly till end december should be an achievement.

Japan also have strong holiday season, 3DS in its 1st holiday season had 300-400k+ weeks, and Switch is still sold out every week in Japan and until now Japan received around 25% off shipments so there no sense to ship less for holiday season when they selling out everything they can ship in any case in Japan. So of course that Switch will easily have larger shipments than 100k through December, starting from next week shipments will start seeing 100k+ weeks, and in December shipments will be much larger.



zorg1000 on 23 November 2017

Switch shipments will be around 14 million at the end of december.

Americas-5.7 million
Others-4.6 million
Japan-3.7 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Ryng on 24 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
Switch shipments will be around 14 million at the end of december.

Americas-5.7 million
Others-4.6 million
Japan-3.7 million

Imo, they will easy beat this number. Just like they did before, they will increase the current prediction of 14 million this FY.

My bet for 2017:

Americas - 3.00m / 6.11m
Others - 2.50m / 5.07m
Japan - 2.00m / 3.95m



zorg1000 on 24 November 2017
Ryng_Tolu said:
zorg1000 said:
Switch shipments will be around 14 million at the end of december.

Americas-5.7 million
Others-4.6 million
Japan-3.7 million

Imo, they will easy beat this number. Just like they did before, they will increase the current prediction of 14 million this FY.

My bet for 2017:

Americas - 3.00m / 6.11m
Others - 2.50m / 5.07m
Japan - 2.00m / 3.95m

Ya it honestly would not surprise me if they upped their forcast again.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kerotan on 24 November 2017

Chris1964 on resetera just posted that 2 of the trackers , famitsu and dengeki were not impressed with Pokemon performance. I guess it wasn't just me to "downplay" it then.



zorg1000 on 24 November 2017
Kerotan said:
Chris1964 on resetera just posted that 2 of the trackers , famitsu and dengeki were not impressed with Pokemon performance. I guess it wasn't just me to "downplay" it then.

Doesnt really make sense considering it did better than Crystal, Emerald & Platinum but under Yellow & Black 2/White 2.

Basically sold right about the average for expansions/sequels.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Green098 on 24 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
Kerotan said:
Chris1964 on resetera just posted that 2 of the trackers , famitsu and dengeki were not impressed with Pokemon performance. I guess it wasn't just me to "downplay" it then.

Doesnt really make sense considering it did better than Crystal, Emerald & Platinum but under Yellow & Black 2/White 2.

Basically sold right about the average for expansions/sequels.

Exactly, for what was a bit of an expansion of an already existing game it outsold Dragon Quest XI 3DS's first week in Japan an entirely new game build from the ground up, you can't downplay performance like that. I don't see how Famitsu and Dengeki saying something gives the idea anymore merit.