guiduc said: So it seems Switch has passed 3DS in LT sales, and the gap should grow for next week. And then, back to square one

The 3DS settled at a baseline of 50-60k units after its price cut, and that's a number that Switch can match if Nintendo continues to supply that many units per week. Assuming this is going to hold true, the 3DS will maintain a lead of merely 100k units through fall. The really tricky part is the 3DS triple punch with Super Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate that culminated in an outstanding holiday season.

But like I said before, the 3DS had the best first twelve months stretch in Japanese sales history by a comfortable margin. One million below the 3DS after year 1 would still be a great accomplishment for Switch.

There's nothing besides SMO as of now. Maybe the Dragon Quest XI port will be ready by the end of the year.

One important difference between the Switch and 3DS is that the former is riding high on already released games and Splatoon 2 in particular is going to keep going strong. We'll see how much this advantage is going to be able to offset the incoming disadvantage in the holiday season.

Well there's Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but I don't know if that will push many consoles in Japan.

Same goes for some multiplats slated for Q4 or having some set release dates already, like Rocket League, Resident Evil Revelations 1,2 and collection, Nobunaga's Ambition, Axiom Verge, Sonic Forces or the next DQ X Expansion. But all of them taken together should give the Switch some nice boosts during the holiday season

There's also Fire Emblem Warriors. 

September 28, so that's probably a bit too soon to have any real effect on the holiday season sales