That we will shamelessly buy anyway

Facts. I have SIX DSs. And four 3DSs!

Can you provide a link where anyone at Sony said the PS4 will be $199.99 this year?

Well I wasn't too pumped for the Wii personally and waited about a year before I got it. The Switch ranks even bellow the Virtual Boy in anticipation on wanting a Nintendo system for me. Who knows perhaps it will be a success. I don't like pop culture so I never know what the fuck everyone will be screaming about next.  Loos like I'll be offline next generation on console systems.  I still have Steam but don't really play online that much anyways.

Why is there not a "No" option?
You basically have two "Yes" options.

"I don't know" can basically be the same as "Maybe".

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I think we can confidently say that the Switch will beat the Wii U, there is more of a buzz around the place about it... And that is a good thing.
I don't think it will beat the orginal Wii though, but it's early days yet.

Haha I mean... you can't say Nintendo doesn't know their audience. They turned what is probably 45 million people into 65 million sales haha.

OP: I honestly think there are just too many variables to really know how much of a success the Switch will be. I think the Switch could sell anywhere from 25 to 75 million units.

That is the thing I think that bolsters 3DS numbers. I think in all reality 3DS has not sold much better than the WiiU. I think the actual unique user base is probably around 20 - 25 million with a ton of people owning 3, 4, 5, 6, or even more devices. Nintendo could definitely have the same scenario with Switch. I can see the first Switch selling 8 - 12 million, the 1st revision doing the same with half or more being duplicate buyers, and that trend repeating. They may sell 50 million in 5 years, but it will only have an active userbase around 15 - 20 million, with 30 million sitting on shelves or in drawers.

Ya thats a huge overestimation. There is no way that 3DS only has 20-25 million users, thats literally 1/3 of its overall sales.

The main thing that makes that nearly impossible is the software sales. That would give it by far the highest tie ratio of any game system ever, which is highly unlikely. That would also give it 7 games with a roughly 50% attach rate and 13 games with a roughly 20% attach rate.

These type of numbers are simply unheard of, you could possibly make an argument for actual 3DS install base being something like 40-50 million.

That's what I think is most likely. 40-50 million unique users with the rest of the sales being repeat sales. Actually, thinking about it...I wonder what Nintendos total base is right now? I mean...How many Wii U owners don't have a 3DS?

With the new installments of Pokemon selling around 14-16 million on average between Gen VI and VII (not counting remakes), I also find it hard to believe that they would create a 50% attach ratio, as much as I would like more people to enjoy the games. I think games like Mario Kart 8, where the attach ratio is above 50%, are an exception for ANY console, even Nintendo's with their first party content.

Probably the only exception was the Wii with 2 games with at least a 30% attach rate and 4 games with at least a 20% attach rate. Then you got Wii Sports.