Do you think the Nintendo Switch will be a success? (poll)

[Normchacho]

zorg1000 said:

KBG29 said:

That is the thing I think that bolsters 3DS numbers. I think in all reality 3DS has not sold much better than the WiiU. I think the actual unique user base is probably around 20 - 25 million with a ton of people owning 3, 4, 5, 6, or even more devices. Nintendo could definitely have the same scenario with Switch. I can see the first Switch selling 8 - 12 million, the 1st revision doing the same with half or more being duplicate buyers, and that trend repeating. They may sell 50 million in 5 years, but it will only have an active userbase around 15 - 20 million, with 30 million sitting on shelves or in drawers.

Ya thats a huge overestimation. There is no way that 3DS only has 20-25 million users, thats literally 1/3 of its overall sales.

The main thing that makes that nearly impossible is the software sales. That would give it by far the highest tie ratio of any game system ever, which is highly unlikely. That would also give it 7 games with a roughly 50% attach rate and 13 games with a roughly 20% attach rate.

These type of numbers are simply unheard of, you could possibly make an argument for actual 3DS install base being something like 40-50 million.

That's what I think is most likely. 40-50 million unique users with the rest of the sales being repeat sales. Actually, thinking about it...I wonder what Nintendos total base is right now? I mean...How many Wii U owners don't have a 3DS?