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Forums - Gaming - Switch: How Big Will Its 9th Gen Lead Be?

iNathan on 01 February 2017
GribbleGrunger said:
iNathan said:
Generation means a power leap, Switch is inferior to Xbox One to it should count as 7.5 Gen, Ps4 Pro and Scorpio are 9th gen not Switch lmao

Switch is a up console but with a great concept and very powerfull for handheld, that alone will make it sell alot.

I couldn't disagree more. A gen is a gen and I know many people like to attribute 'power' as the deciding factor but it's not, and I suspect people like yourself (no insult intended) deep down know this to be true. Just because Nintendo approach the gens in a different way to Sony and MS doesn't change things. I was rather hoping for a straight forward answer and unfortunately I'm already seeing partisan thinking. The 9th gen starts with the Switch, regardless of how Sony fans or MS fans want to look at it.

Nintendo will have a lead. What will that be?

edit: I just notice I put 'gig' instead of 'big'! How ironic is that? LOL

Lmao lead or not it won´t matter, 3rd parties will be on PlayStation and Xbox not Switch so keep your lead. 

Plus when Ps5 comes out it will kill Switch pretty quick and Nintendo will need a new "Gen" lmao.



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jason1637 on 01 February 2017

Assuming PS5 comes out 2020 id say Switch by then will have sold aroung 35m.



GribbleGrunger on 01 February 2017
Bandorr said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Well , ok then, I'll rephrase the question: By the time the PS5 and (what ever the new XB is called) how many units will the Switch have sold?

I'd guess 30 million. I suspect we won't see PS5, or XB[] until late 2019. Most likely late 2020.

That gives them 2017,2017,and at minimum most of 2019. 10 million or so a year off the backs of Zelda/Mario/Pokemon.

You lovely person! That's more than I'd imagined myself because I'm not sure the Switch will push many units beyond the established Nintendo fanbase. That's why I think they're heavily promoting the 'motion control' aspects of the Switch. My theory is they're hoping to catch lightening in a bottle twice, and whilst I can't completely disagree that this approach will work, I DO see the potential, mainly because PSVR is currently re-acclimatising customers to idea of motion control. The only roadblock to this is most people who are getting on board with PSVR are not really pushing the motion control aspects of it, even though it's integral. I think Nintendo are rolling the dice with the Switch, with the 'handheld' narrative coming in as the safety net. If PSVR gets any significent traction and people DO start associating motion control with it then the Switch 'might' catch lightening in a bottle twice, but I'm not convinced just yet that the motion control aspect of PSVR is divorced enough from PSVR to create a clear motion control narrative. What I'm seeing so far is the idea of 'full immersion' regardless of the methods implemented to get there.



 

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Platina on 01 February 2017

The whole idea of generations is beginning to be blurred in my opinion

No idea how well or not well the Switch will do though



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GribbleGrunger on 01 February 2017
Shadow1980 said:
It's either an 8th-gen console because it's competing with the PS4 & XBO, or it's a "5th-gen" handheld, if we count the entire Game Boy line from the OG fat one to the Color and all its competition as a single generation.

In both cases, the answer to your question would be "zero."

I just can't agree. It's a 9th gen console as far as I can see and I'm sure your average 'Joe blogs' consumer will see it that way too, although they won't identify it that way. They'll just see it as 'the new kid on the block'.



 

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okr on 01 February 2017

At least 25 million.



Teeqoz on 01 February 2017

Honestly, I think the Switch, the Pro and the Scorpi should've kicked all ideas of "generations" to the curb by now. Generations don't make sense now. Sure, they never made sense in actuality, but they were useful for some purposes. They no longer are. To say that the Switch is competing with the PS5 and the neXtbox, but not the PS4(Pro) and XBO(Scorpio) is nonsense.



IkePoR on 01 February 2017

It's gonna be hard to keep a "Generation" idea going. Switch is a hybrid and PS4/XBO have upgrades. Technically, Switch is next gen and if you follow that logic, it's going to be very weird to call PS5/XB2 "gen 9" when they release in 2020.



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dharh on 01 February 2017

It's simply hard to care anymore about what console is what gen. In the past gens meant something because most everyone was in sync. Now we have '8.5' gen from MS and SONY and 9th gen from Nintendo, all within about a year of eachother.

Instead ill have to look at the sales numbers between competition, in the time period in question, rather than strictly gens. Quite simply the Switch _will_ be competing against both offerings from SONY and MS for at least the first couple years of it's life.

So if PS4+PS4Pro sell more than the Switch within the time period from Switches release to the PS5 (or whatever they call it) I will consider PS4+PS4Pro the winner of that battle. If the reverse is true I would consider the Switch as the winner. I won't delude myself with saying that Switch is 'alone' winning off by itself simply because no one else has released a 'gen 9' console.



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GribbleGrunger on 01 February 2017
dharh said:
It's simply hard to care anymore about what console is what gen. In the past gens meant something because most everyone was in sync. Now we have '8.5' gen from MS and SONY and 9th gen from Nintendo, all within about a year of eachother.

Instead ill have to look at the sales numbers between competition, in the time period in question, rather than strictly gens. Quite simply the Switch _will_ be competing against both offerings from SONY and MS for at least the first couple years of it's life.

So if PS4+PS4Pro sell more than the Switch within the time period from Switches release to the PS5 (or whatever they call it) I will consider PS4+PS4Pro the winner of that battle. If the reverse is true I would consider the Switch as the winner. I won't delude myself with saying that Switch is 'alone' winning off by itself simply because no one else has released a 'gen 9' console.

But why? How does it impact you in a personal way? We're looking at an impirical value here. It's a number of units sole, not a subjective evaluation of 'success'. It seems to me that the obsession with 'winning' has disabled our abiltity to truthully evaluate reality. For some reason we 'need' to discriminate in order to give ourselves room for maneouvre. The question is simple: How many units of said merchandise will have sold before other companies have produced merchandise to compete?



 

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