Switch: How Big Will Its 9th Gen Lead Be?

[GribbleGrunger]

Bandorr said:

GribbleGrunger said:

Well , ok then, I'll rephrase the question: By the time the PS5 and (what ever the new XB is called) how many units will the Switch have sold?

I'd guess 30 million. I suspect we won't see PS5, or XB[] until late 2019. Most likely late 2020.

That gives them 2017,2017,and at minimum most of 2019. 10 million or so a year off the backs of Zelda/Mario/Pokemon.

You lovely person! That's more than I'd imagined myself because I'm not sure the Switch will push many units beyond the established Nintendo fanbase. That's why I think they're heavily promoting the 'motion control' aspects of the Switch. My theory is they're hoping to catch lightening in a bottle twice, and whilst I can't completely disagree that this approach will work, I DO see the potential, mainly because PSVR is currently re-acclimatising customers to idea of motion control. The only roadblock to this is most people who are getting on board with PSVR are not really pushing the motion control aspects of it, even though it's integral. I think Nintendo are rolling the dice with the Switch, with the 'handheld' narrative coming in as the safety net. If PSVR gets any significent traction and people DO start associating motion control with it then the Switch 'might' catch lightening in a bottle twice, but I'm not convinced just yet that the motion control aspect of PSVR is divorced enough from PSVR to create a clear motion control narrative. What I'm seeing so far is the idea of 'full immersion' regardless of the methods implemented to get there.