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Forums - Gaming - Your false assumptions will get you nowhere

Jpcc86 said:
zorg1000 said:

you should probably read the whole sentance, instead of just the first half

Also, a bit related, you should read my full response to maybe realize im hiding a joke inside a fake response?
Tho, this has happened to me often, I guess i need to stop understimating how serious people are in this forum. 

i did and would have never guessed it was a fake response just because you made an unrelated joke at the end.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Neodegenerate said:
Thus, looking at how the Wii U did, we are able to project how we feel the Switch will do; especially in markets outside of Japan where the handheld piece isn't a major selling point.

This is such a weird misconception, this is a sales website where the data is easily accessible yet people constantly throw out innacurate statements about sales.

3DS has sold over 40 million units outside of Japan (roughly 4x the amount Wii U has), Japan makes up slightly over 1/3 of 3DS worldwide sales yet people constantly claim Japan is the only region that cares about handhelds.

Its just such a backwards statement to say Switch will sell like Wii U outside of Japan because handhelds arent a selling point yet Nintendo's current handheld has sold far better than Wii U in each and every region.

How is the 3DS compared to the consoles in those markets?  That is what I am speaking about.  I am not saying those markets aren't buying handhelds.  I am saying that they prefer the console.  Japan is the only of the "big three" markets that favors a handheld (NA, Europe, Japan).  That puts the Switch at a disadvantage for people who want a "pure" console experience and also puts the handheld market there off with such a poor battery life.

Edit: Also lets take a look at how the 3DS got to where it is.  It was dead on arrival in the US to the point where they dropped the price dramatically and gave away 10 VC games to those who bought at full price.  They have put out no less than 5 different iterations (standard, XL, 2DS, New 3DS, New 3DS XL).  Now you are asking people who wouldn't pay 269 for a 3DS to pay 299 for a new handheld that they can put on their TV.  Or a console they can carry around for a couple hours.  All while there are two established consoles that cost the same (and in some cases less) to bleed away the console crowd.



zorg1000 said:
Jpcc86 said:

Also, a bit related, you should read my full response to maybe realize im hiding a joke inside a fake response?
Tho, this has happened to me often, I guess i need to stop understimating how serious people are in this forum. 

i did and would have never guessed it was a fake response just because you made an unrelated joke at the end.

Yeah, I guess I need to more dramatic. 



Wow man....you made a thread to complain about something others were doing(generalizing, making assumptions etc) but did the exact same thing. And you didn't offer any serious discussion with others just attacked people blatantly. Then when asked to discuss what YOU started....your reply "I am not the type to write a long essay about video games" sounds like a cop out to me.

Then hit and run posts about how no one was able to refute what yous aid when they clearly did lol. This thread is gold man....just gold. I don't know the future of the switch but I know that nothing is for certain on whether it will see well or sell bad and people are free to discuss both sides and give their opinions on both stances. A little over a month left!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Neodegenerate said:
zorg1000 said:

This is such a weird misconception, this is a sales website where the data is easily accessible yet people constantly throw out innacurate statements about sales.

3DS has sold over 40 million units outside of Japan (roughly 4x the amount Wii U has), Japan makes up slightly over 1/3 of 3DS worldwide sales yet people constantly claim Japan is the only region that cares about handhelds.

Its just such a backwards statement to say Switch will sell like Wii U outside of Japan because handhelds arent a selling point yet Nintendo's current handheld has sold far better than Wii U in each and every region.

How is the 3DS compared to the consoles in those markets?  That is what I am speaking about.  I am not saying those markets aren't buying handhelds.  I am saying that they prefer the console.  Japan is the only of the "big three" markets that favors a handheld (NA, Europe, Japan).  That puts the Switch at a disadvantage for people who want a "pure" console experience and also puts the handheld market there off with such a poor battery life.

Edit: Also lets take a look at how the 3DS got to where it is.  It was dead on arrival in the US to the point where they dropped the price dramatically and gave away 10 VC games to those who bought at full price.  They have put out no less than 5 different iterations (standard, XL, 2DS, New 3DS, New 3DS XL).  Now you are asking people who wouldn't pay 269 for a 3DS to pay 299 for a new handheld that they can put on their TV.  Or a console they can carry around for a couple hours.  All while there are two established consoles that cost the same (and in some cases less) to bleed away the console crowd.

That is completely different from what you said originally,

"looking at how the Wii U did, we are able to project how we feel the Switch will do; especially in markets outside of Japan where the handheld piece isn't a major selling point"

3DS has sold 4x as much as Wii U outside of Japan which completely disproves your original statement.

Price was certainly an issue initally but it had alot of other things going against it, most notably a terrible post-launch software lineup, something that Switch does not have. As for multiple iterations, thats true for all handhelds and many consoles so that point is irrelevant.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Neodegenerate said:

How is the 3DS compared to the consoles in those markets?  That is what I am speaking about.  I am not saying those markets aren't buying handhelds.  I am saying that they prefer the console.  Japan is the only of the "big three" markets that favors a handheld (NA, Europe, Japan).  That puts the Switch at a disadvantage for people who want a "pure" console experience and also puts the handheld market there off with such a poor battery life.

Edit: Also lets take a look at how the 3DS got to where it is.  It was dead on arrival in the US to the point where they dropped the price dramatically and gave away 10 VC games to those who bought at full price.  They have put out no less than 5 different iterations (standard, XL, 2DS, New 3DS, New 3DS XL).  Now you are asking people who wouldn't pay 269 for a 3DS to pay 299 for a new handheld that they can put on their TV.  Or a console they can carry around for a couple hours.  All while there are two established consoles that cost the same (and in some cases less) to bleed away the console crowd.

That is completely different from what you said originally,

"looking at how the Wii U did, we are able to project how we feel the Switch will do; especially in markets outside of Japan where the handheld piece isn't a major selling point"

3DS has sold 4x as much as Wii U outside of Japan which completely disproves your original statement.

Price was certainly an issue initally but it had alot of other things going against it, most notably a terrible post-launch software lineup, something that Switch does not have. As for multiple iterations, thats true for all handhelds and many consoles so that point is irrelevant.

It isn't the opposite of what I said at all.  What I am saying is the home console market for the Switch isn't really there based on the home console market as it stands today.  Neither of my posts invalidate that.  I am also saying that those who will buy it as a handheld, which is what you were presumably arguing with your 3DS point, will be hesitant to do so as they were with the 3DS outside of Japan at launch.

The Switch has a poor launch lineup (Zelda really being the only system seller) outside of Japan and the actual post launch support isn't known in full.  Which, I also said in a different post might swing my view.

The idea that the iterations is irrelevant though is remarkably short sighted and not true.  Look at the XB1S.  It has revitalized the XB1 in the US.  That is relevant because the initial Switch offering might just do poorly enough to require another iteration or an immediate price drop.  Especially given the price point and the history of those handheld people - that your posts indicate you think will flock to the device - not buying at that price.



Neodegenerate said:
zorg1000 said:

That is completely different from what you said originally,

"looking at how the Wii U did, we are able to project how we feel the Switch will do; especially in markets outside of Japan where the handheld piece isn't a major selling point"

3DS has sold 4x as much as Wii U outside of Japan which completely disproves your original statement.

Price was certainly an issue initally but it had alot of other things going against it, most notably a terrible post-launch software lineup, something that Switch does not have. As for multiple iterations, thats true for all handhelds and many consoles so that point is irrelevant.

It isn't the opposite of what I said at all.  What I am saying is the home console market for the Switch isn't really there based on the home console market as it stands today.  Neither of my posts invalidate that.  I am also saying that those who will buy it as a handheld, which is what you were presumably arguing with your 3DS point, will be hesitant to do so as they were with the 3DS outside of Japan at launch.

The Switch has a poor launch lineup (Zelda really being the only system seller) outside of Japan and the actual post launch support isn't known in full.  Which, I also said in a different post might swing my view.

The idea that the iterations is irrelevant though is remarkably short sighted and not true.  Look at the XB1S.  It has revitalized the XB1 in the US.  That is relevant because the initial Switch offering might just do poorly enough to require another iteration or an immediate price drop.  Especially given the price point and the history of those handheld people - that your posts indicate you think will flock to the device - not buying at that price.

As of now, Switch has Zelda at launch, Mario Kart in April (still a big game regardless of being an updated port), ARMS in Spring & Splatoon 2 in Summer along with a steady stream of smaller Japanese & indie games mixed in. 3DS on the other hand had virtually nothing noteworthy with the exception of Ocarina of Time 3D between launch and the price cut.

I must have misunderstood what you meant by your iterations statement. I though you were discrediting its sales because it had multiple revisions. Either way, revisions are almost gauranteed considering most gaming devices recieve revisions throughout their life.

But none of this really changes that your original statement was completely wrong.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Neodegenerate said:

It isn't the opposite of what I said at all.  What I am saying is the home console market for the Switch isn't really there based on the home console market as it stands today.  Neither of my posts invalidate that.  I am also saying that those who will buy it as a handheld, which is what you were presumably arguing with your 3DS point, will be hesitant to do so as they were with the 3DS outside of Japan at launch.

The Switch has a poor launch lineup (Zelda really being the only system seller) outside of Japan and the actual post launch support isn't known in full.  Which, I also said in a different post might swing my view.

The idea that the iterations is irrelevant though is remarkably short sighted and not true.  Look at the XB1S.  It has revitalized the XB1 in the US.  That is relevant because the initial Switch offering might just do poorly enough to require another iteration or an immediate price drop.  Especially given the price point and the history of those handheld people - that your posts indicate you think will flock to the device - not buying at that price.

As of now, Switch has Zelda at launch, Mario Kart in April (still a big game regardless of being an updated port), ARMS in Spring & Splatoon 2 in Summer along with a steady stream of smaller Japanese & indie games mixed in. 3DS on the other hand had virtually nothing noteworthy with the exception of Ocarina of Time 3D between launch and the price cut.

I must have misunderstood what you meant by your iterations statement. I though you were discrediting its sales because it had multiple revisions. Either way, revisions are almost gauranteed considering most gaming devices recieve revisions throughout their life.

But none of this really changes that your original statement was completely wrong.

You have yet to disprove the original statement, so calling it wrong is rather rash.  Yes Switch has two big games (Zelda and Splatoon 2), one unknown (Arms), an updated port (Mario Kart 8) and a bunch of games that may not make it out of Japan, and indies that I have already mentioned don't move systems within the first six months.  Keep in mind that people thought that PS4 had "no gamez" or whatever the meme was in its first year and it looked much better than the Switch has shown thusfar for the same timeframe.

When you have two systems (3DS and Wii U) that have issues with software at launch (3DS) and throughout the life cycle (Wii U) you begin to alienate your fanbase.  Thus, your home console doesn't even get to 15 million sold.  Switch will do fine in Japan.  It is everywhere else that becomes an issue.

You have the home console people who are looking at it like a handheld and thus aren't interested.

You have the handheld console people who are looking at the battery life and price and thus aren't interested.

You have the people who play mainly for third party that already have the console they are going to use for that and thus aren't interested.

Then you have the Nintendo fans, and those who like the idea of having it on the go and at home, that they are targeting.  Is that number enough?  Based on what they have done in the past, and the necessary changes to their most recent handheld to get it off the ground, I don't think so.  Can it surprise us the way the Wii U did?  Sure.  Is it LIKELY to?  No.

They are relying on motion controls again.  The motion control crowd hasn't cared for over 5 years now, they have moved on.  7 games at launch for anyone not in Japan is a weak library that is relying solely on one game in Zelda.  Everything else on launch date is very much a gamble.

My statement that they might not do so well outside Japan is not wrong, it is an opinion based on the facts we look at since Nintendo lost a ton of third party support generations ago, and the message they attempted to convey at their Switch presentation.  Do you really think there are people foaming at the mouth to "milk cows" with 1-2 Switch at parties?  Or that they are super excited to double dip on a game like I am Setsuna?  I don't.



Do the same for the assumptions that it will be a success and then ok, if not you only want to be hearing the good news no matter if they are even less likely than the bad news you don't want to see.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Neodegenerate said:
zorg1000 said:

As of now, Switch has Zelda at launch, Mario Kart in April (still a big game regardless of being an updated port), ARMS in Spring & Splatoon 2 in Summer along with a steady stream of smaller Japanese & indie games mixed in. 3DS on the other hand had virtually nothing noteworthy with the exception of Ocarina of Time 3D between launch and the price cut.

I must have misunderstood what you meant by your iterations statement. I though you were discrediting its sales because it had multiple revisions. Either way, revisions are almost gauranteed considering most gaming devices recieve revisions throughout their life.

But none of this really changes that your original statement was completely wrong.

You have yet to disprove the original statement, so calling it wrong is rather rash.  Yes Switch has two big games (Zelda and Splatoon 2), one unknown (Arms), an updated port (Mario Kart 8) and a bunch of games that may not make it out of Japan, and indies that I have already mentioned don't move systems within the first six months.  Keep in mind that people thought that PS4 had "no gamez" or whatever the meme was in its first year and it looked much better than the Switch has shown thusfar for the same timeframe.

When you have two systems (3DS and Wii U) that have issues with software at launch (3DS) and throughout the life cycle (Wii U) you begin to alienate your fanbase.  Thus, your home console doesn't even get to 15 million sold.  Switch will do fine in Japan.  It is everywhere else that becomes an issue.

You have the home console people who are looking at it like a handheld and thus aren't interested.

You have the handheld console people who are looking at the battery life and price and thus aren't interested.

You have the people who play mainly for third party that already have the console they are going to use for that and thus aren't interested.

Then you have the Nintendo fans, and those who like the idea of having it on the go and at home, that they are targeting.  Is that number enough?  Based on what they have done in the past, and the necessary changes to their most recent handheld to get it off the ground, I don't think so.  Can it surprise us the way the Wii U did?  Sure.  Is it LIKELY to?  No.

They are relying on motion controls again.  The motion control crowd hasn't cared for over 5 years now, they have moved on.  7 games at launch for anyone not in Japan is a weak library that is relying solely on one game in Zelda.  Everything else on launch date is very much a gamble.

My statement that they might not do so well outside Japan is not wrong, it is an opinion based on the facts we look at since Nintendo lost a ton of third party support generations ago, and the message they attempted to convey at their Switch presentation.  Do you really think there are people foaming at the mouth to "milk cows" with 1-2 Switch at parties?  Or that they are super excited to double dip on a game like I am Setsuna?  I don't.

Yes I did disprove your original statement, if you forgot what it was than that's on you. Everything you have said since then is irrelevant to the original point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.