While OP left many factors out of why the one s won a few months, I do belive scorpio will face another hurdle wore than what the ps4 pro faced at launch. While the media was hating on the upgrade to the pro, due to the small jump, how some could not notice big improvements, how games still dint take advantage of the upgrades and all that. It should be worse for the scorpio.

1) While from x1 to xscorpio is a much bigger jump than for ps4 to ps4pro, the problem will be that the diference from pro to scorpio will be very small and by then, the pro will have a year headstart so games will be better optimize for pro while just getting started on scorpio.

2) This year we have promised a lot of good software for the ps4, wich I think is the real reason as to why the ps4 has been dominating and allways will. If I remember correctly, the only big games coming for x1 this year are the anual forza, scalebound and maybe crackdown, dont know, this one has been anounced since the x1 itself.

3) the ps4 pro will have a good price advantage. Even if scorpio releases at $400, sonny could do a holliday cut to $350, or just bundle the pro with a couple games something a brand new and more expensive scorpio wont manage easy.

4) While I dont really think marketing deals do all that much, the ps4 already has the best ones for this year. Wont really matter, Like who is really gona go buy destiny 2 on a diferent console that they have destiny 1 with all the friends and possible cross over saves and other stuff. But some new consumers might buy into it.

5) The slow down effect the ps4 had by people waiting for the pro, it will cause bigger problems for scorpio. While the ps4 was unchallenged as the best machine, this time people might still wait for a scorpio but buy the ps4 pro on the mean time. I say its worse for the scorpio because when it hppened to the pro, there really is not much aside from the few that wanted a 4k br player, but buy a x1 to pass the time. the xbox has so few exclusives that year that you could still wait with whatever else you had, wont be the same with all the big games coming for ps4 this year.

Dam do I hate writing so much. If I saw a post like this, I would not read it :p

People really talk about the Scorpio like if its à Xbox One but its not, just look at thé crazy différence of p power.

It would be called Xbox One Scorpio and would be less powerful if it was, it has more to do with Switch thzn with PS4 pro.

Its not just an upgrade like PS4 pro or New 3DS( see how both have the base name in it ), its à new console like thé Nintendo Switch and it will have game unplayable on Xbox One un addition with thé cross gen games.

So no Xbox One wont win 2017 thé year if its replacement, at thé opposite, thé sales will decrease a lot

:)

When Xbox wins they still lose. Even after the 4 month lead that the Xbox built, it was completely negated by the PS4 in november. So over the entire year the PS4 still has the better sales and has made an even larger gap. Also the fact that the Xbox lost November in the US is huge, I think the last time that the Xbox was outsold by the Playstation in the US in November was when the PS2 was against the original Xbox

Not saying the Xbox has had bad sales, this has been a good year for them but every year that the that the XB one and PS4 have been out the PS4 has been growing its lead not only in the World but in NA (or US) as well.

The momentum the Xbox has had will be coming to a halt with the non-existance of any Triple A exclusives in at least first half of 2017, and I dont think a lot of people will be to eager to buy an xbox after that point until the new Scorpio comes out and only if it is affordable.

And last but not least, Playstation will not allow it to fall behind whether it be price cuts, bundles or deals on games, once they got on top they've done a lot to stay there.

Now im just asking here so dont take it the wrong way, have you tried looking at this from the angles I mentioned or do none of this seem right to you? 

It wouldnt only be thé first lie of Microsoft this génération, especially about exclusives, dont take their déclarations as à fact 

It makes no sense money wise to not make exclusive Scorpio games when you have a generational gap between One and Scorpio.

Its like if all Xbox One games were playable on 360, itd make no sense to do that when you create a totally new hardware with a huge power gap you wanna sell. 

It makes absolutely no sense to have a console so powerful to not use fully its power for more than framerate or résolution and some effects added .

Something never seen in vidéo game industry beczuse itd be pure waste.

I take thé bet to be right about this, youll see.

One of the main reasons why the XB1 did well in August through October and kept it close in November was because Microsoft strategically spaced out the bundles/SKUs:

Aug 2 - 2TB XBO S
Aug 23 - 1TB Madden 17 bundle, 500GB Halo Collection bundle
Sep 27 - 500 Minecraft bundle
Oct 11 - 1TB Gears 4 bundle, 2TB Gears 4 LE bundle
Oct 18 - Battlefield 1 special edition bundle
Oct 21 - 500GB Battlefield 1 bundle
Nov 1 - 500GB Gears 4 deep blue bundle

This was a very clever plan on Microsoft's part. Release a new SKU at the beginning of the month for an early uptick in sales and another near the end for a last moment boost before the NPD period closes. On top of that, that momentum can be carried into next month. I think the blue Gears 4 bundle contributed towards keeping the November margin small since (1) it only costed $299 which was cut down to $249 during BF week, (2) the majority of November's sales are dictated by price, and (3) the console is uniquely colored, but you didn't have to pay an extra cent.

Depends. Its hard to tell right now because its early. PS4 has lots of marketing deals and xbox has a new console and a new Nintendo is making the comeback. Ill say there is a possibility but its too early to call.

Edit:

I thought Xbox beat PS4 in the US but not Worldwide in November in 2013 and 2015, am I wrong there ?

RDR2 and CoD are confirmed but Destiny 2 and BF2 are safe assumptions.

Isn't the Playstation 4 only leading by a million or two or three in the U.S.? That's not that significant. But what we're all forgetting is the Playstation exclusives. While Playstation exclusives have always been more so European hits than American hits(like Halo or Gears of War), a lot of the titles Playstation is launching with late next year are really western-centric. I don't think with God of War 4 and Uncharted The Lost Legacy that Xbox can steal that moment. Let me make one thing clear - Microsoft could launch Xbox Scorpio with a Halo 6 bundle and they would lose. The reality is that the Scorpio is a premium product, if it launches at 500$ it will make a big splash but most likely with people who already have the One. If it launches at 400$ then I could see a lot of people shifting towards the Xbox, but that's unlikely. Microsoft would have to have Xbox One down to 200$ standard and 150$ with sales and maybe Scorpio at 500- 450$ in order to beat Playstation, and that's IF they really do have a Halo 6. The reason is that Halo Wars, Crackdown, State of Decay 2, Cuphead, and Scalebound just don't sell systems.