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Forums - Sales - 47.4M PS4s shipped as of end of September. Financial report

KBG29 said:
Intrinsic said:

The point is they dont have to do all that to be (more) successful.

They have playstation. make home console hardware that's connected to TVs. Release games for said hardware. Profit. Make iterations on existing hardware every 3-4 years and maintain forward and backward compatibility. Which extends home console user base and prevents you from ever starting from zero again. The beauty of that is that it flips the whole console model on its head. You no longer make new hardware worrying about building an install base as soon as possible. Instead you look at you insatll base every 3-4yrs and see how much h of it is still on your oldest running hardware which tells you where to focus on optimization. 

The have remote play, rather than try and release new hardware in every sector, tablet, phone, PC....etc instead they should focus on getting remote play right. This ensures that with the one console they expect everyone to buy, those people can use remote play to play on their tablets, phones...etc. 

The have Playstation Vue and PlayStation now, these two apps can be on every device platform you can think of. And PSvue is alresdy showing that's the direction they are going with. Thus you don't even have to have a PlayStation console to be tied into the Playstation ecosystem. 

The already have the foundations of a great and profitable business model and by simply fine tuning it they stand to make signifivantly more and become stronger. Simply no reason to invest heavily in so many different hardwsrr types and even take on already established operating systems when they can just piggy back on what's already there. 

Again, stop thinking as PlayStation as a hardware business. The hardware is just the trojan horse. The brand is more about software and services than anything else. 

Two problems though.

1. Sony is a hardware manufacturer, and they have devices and knowledge in each of the markets I mentioned above. Currently they are using Android on these devices, and it is doing massive damage to the Sony name. They need to bring all of their devices onto a single Sony OS, and the PS4 OS is the best they have. By running the PS4 OS, and Using PS4 tech in all Sony device, they greatly expand their userbase, and make the PS4 hardware, PS4 OS, and PSN a much more lucrative place for developers, which in turn makes it a more lucrative place for consumers.

2. Streaming is the future, eventually, but it is not their yet. Data caps are real, and Remote Play + PS Vue + PS Video + PS Music + PS Now, is more than the average consumer can handle on their data plan. Even as a hardcore data user, it is not feasible. I pay $300 a month for data, and I have Unlimited at home, but only 50GB on Mobile.

I already use Remote Play a lot on the Vita, and it is good at times, but for some games, fighting and racing most notably, local is the only way.

Swordmasterman said:

A lot of products with PS4 in the name would decrease PS4's sales like it did to  the Steam Machines.

This is a lot different than steam machines. Steam Machines has a bunch of different devices that were all nearly the same, and only focused on one market. 

What I am talking about is bringing PS4 tech to many different sectors, and using it to replace the current devices Sony already makes, in an effort to unify the company, and drive up profits. Sony is forcasting 12M TVs, 17M Smartphones, and 20M PS4s this year, in my example, that would be 49M new PS4 owners this year.

Seriously, this is the only logical way forward for them. They have to unifiy around an in house OS that drives up the value of their brand, and makes their hardware amoung the most lucrative places to release software, games, video, apps, etc.

That is a good move, but they should give another name for the other versions. The Wii U could have sold much more units if it sis not had Wii in the name.



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So 55M by the end of the year?



Mummelmann said:
thismeintiel said:

Still think it's only going to do ~50M this year?

Nah, my sig prediction is probably a lot more realistic. That said, I still don't think it will sell 110 million or more lifetime...

How many do you think it will sell lifetime?



So flat sales on HW isn't bad and with slim and Pro now and considering PS2 peaked earlier PS4 may still be ahead by next FY and we may even see sales increase YOY.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:

Nah, my sig prediction is probably a lot more realistic. That said, I still don't think it will sell 110 million or more lifetime...

How many do you think it will sell lifetime?

Hard to say, depends on the Pro, how the Xbox brand will do in NA for the remainder of the gen, pricing strategy etc. but 100 million should be within reason. With around half that after three years on the market, it would need to sell the same for another three years to get to 100 million fast, factor in a decline unlike the PS3 and 360's unusually late peak due to unique circumstances on the market and ushering of the HD era on consoles and TV and what is likely to be a shorter gen than the last with a steep drop-off once new hardware is made available, and 100 million is a fairly reasonable prediction in my opinion. One could argue that the market hasn't changed that much, the problem with that statement is the relative lack of momentum for the PS4 despite its utter dominance over two main competitors; there should be more room for faster sales according to historical trends, but there doesn't seem to be that much, one console is down and out, or even DOA, and the other is only now selling decent amounts in one major market but slightly flailing globally. The PS4 has, so far, not outsold the PS3's best year by any big margin, which is quite telling given the above factors and the PS3's rather poor start (2015 saw the PS4 sell about 15-17% more than the PS3's best year, the PS3 was a third place console for most of the gen).

In short; with positive press, good pricing, some good software, great functionality and weak competition thus far, the conditions should be more or less optimal for the PS4, yet it hasn't really taken off in the manner that many expected. I still remember how ridiculous many thought I was being when I said that I don't think it will ever have a 20 million selling year. I can still be wrong on most fronts, but so far it seems to be proceeding pretty much as expected.



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The other good news is that most sector saw profits and improvements in this report. The two business with very big losses is from the earthquake if I'm not wrong, so I expect them to be headed to better times.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:

How many do you think it will sell lifetime?

Hard to say, depends on the Pro, how the Xbox brand will do in NA for the remainder of the gen, pricing strategy etc. but 100 million should be within reason. With around half that after three years on the market, it would need to sell the same for another three years to get to 100 million fast, factor in a decline unlike the PS3 and 360's unusually late peak due to unique circumstances on the market and ushering of the HD era on consoles and TV and what is likely to be a shorter gen than the last with a steep drop-off once new hardware is made available, and 100 million is a fairly reasonable prediction in my opinion. One could argue that the market hasn't changed that much, the problem with that statement is the relative lack of momentum for the PS4 despite its utter dominance over two main competitors; there should be more room for faster sales according to historical trends, but there doesn't seem to be that much, one console is down and out, or even DOA, and the other is only now selling decent amounts in one major market but slightly flailing globally. The PS4 has, so far, not outsold the PS3's best year by any big margin, which is quite telling given the above factors and the PS3's rather poor start (2015 saw the PS4 sell about 15-17% more than the PS3's best year, the PS3 was a third place console for most of the gen).

In short; with positive press, good pricing, some good software, great functionality and weak competition thus far, the conditions should be more or less optimal for the PS4, yet it hasn't really taken off in the manner that many expected. I still remember how ridiculous many thought I was being when I said that I don't think it will ever have a 20 million selling year. I can still be wrong on most fronts, but so far it seems to be proceeding pretty much as expected.

50M after their 3rd year - that's what all the PS consoles do, not just the PS3. And it doesn't need to sell the same over the next 3 years - it can do it over the next 5 years.

The best fiscal year sales for the PS3 was 16.5M with the 2nd one being 14.3M. The PS4 did 17.7M in its 2nd year with it being on track to sell 20M this fiscal year. So, the best 2 years of the PS4 would beat the best 2 PS3 years by 22%.

Also, what lack of momentum of the PS4 are you talking about here? Because I'd like to know how you came to that conclusion.

And hasn't taken off? It will be outpacing the PS2 again next quarter. How much faster do you want it to sell?

And again - it is on track to sell 20M this year. That's the forecast at least.



Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:

Hard to say, depends on the Pro, how the Xbox brand will do in NA for the remainder of the gen, pricing strategy etc. but 100 million should be within reason. With around half that after three years on the market, it would need to sell the same for another three years to get to 100 million fast, factor in a decline unlike the PS3 and 360's unusually late peak due to unique circumstances on the market and ushering of the HD era on consoles and TV and what is likely to be a shorter gen than the last with a steep drop-off once new hardware is made available, and 100 million is a fairly reasonable prediction in my opinion. One could argue that the market hasn't changed that much, the problem with that statement is the relative lack of momentum for the PS4 despite its utter dominance over two main competitors; there should be more room for faster sales according to historical trends, but there doesn't seem to be that much, one console is down and out, or even DOA, and the other is only now selling decent amounts in one major market but slightly flailing globally. The PS4 has, so far, not outsold the PS3's best year by any big margin, which is quite telling given the above factors and the PS3's rather poor start (2015 saw the PS4 sell about 15-17% more than the PS3's best year, the PS3 was a third place console for most of the gen).

In short; with positive press, good pricing, some good software, great functionality and weak competition thus far, the conditions should be more or less optimal for the PS4, yet it hasn't really taken off in the manner that many expected. I still remember how ridiculous many thought I was being when I said that I don't think it will ever have a 20 million selling year. I can still be wrong on most fronts, but so far it seems to be proceeding pretty much as expected.

50M after their 3rd year - that's what all the PS consoles do, not just the PS3. And it doesn't need to sell the same over the next 3 years - it can do it over the next 5 years.

The best fiscal year sales for the PS3 was 16.5M with the 2nd one being 14.3M. The PS4 did 17.7M in its 2nd year with it being on track to sell 20M this fiscal year. So, the best 2 years of the PS4 would beat the best 2 PS3 years by 22%.

Also, what lack of momentum of the PS4 are you talking about here? Because I'd like to know how you came to that conclusion.

And hasn't taken off? It will be outpacing the PS2 again next quarter. How much faster do you want it to sell?

And again - it is on track to sell 20M this year. That's the forecast at least.

Some people thinks that this gen will  be very short and that the PS4 won't have enough legs to surpass 100 millions of units.

The PS4 will have atleast 5-6 years of market before the PS5 while the PS3 had 7. The difference isn't that big, the PS3 was the only Playstation console that did not sold 100 millions + units.

 

We need to wait until after the holidays in order to know how well the PS4 sold. I think that 2017 will be PS4's peak year



Mummelmann said:

Hard to say, depends on the Pro, how the Xbox brand will do in NA for the remainder of the gen, pricing strategy etc. but 100 million should be within reason. With around half that after three years on the market, it would need to sell the same for another three years to get to 100 million fast, factor in a decline unlike the PS3 and 360's unusually late peak due to unique circumstances on the market and ushering of the HD era on consoles and TV and what is likely to be a shorter gen than the last with a steep drop-off once new hardware is made available, and 100 million is a fairly reasonable prediction in my opinion. One could argue that the market hasn't changed that much, the problem with that statement is the relative lack of momentum for the PS4 despite its utter dominance over two main competitors; there should be more room for faster sales according to historical trends, but there doesn't seem to be that much, one console is down and out, or even DOA, and the other is only now selling decent amounts in one major market but slightly flailing globally. The PS4 has, so far, not outsold the PS3's best year by any big margin, which is quite telling given the above factors and the PS3's rather poor start (2015 saw the PS4 sell about 15-17% more than the PS3's best year, the PS3 was a third place console for most of the gen).

In short; with positive press, good pricing, some good software, great functionality and weak competition thus far, the conditions should be more or less optimal for the PS4, yet it hasn't really taken off in the manner that many expected. I still remember how ridiculous many thought I was being when I said that I don't think it will ever have a 20 million selling year. I can still be wrong on most fronts, but so far it seems to be proceeding pretty much as expected.

I think the only major inhibitor right now for the PS4 is price. At this time in the PS2s life it was already at half its launch price point. The PS4 is only down by 25% in orive from what it launched at. I believe it leaks when it at least gets to a $199 price point. 



Swordmasterman said:

Some people thinks that this gen will  be very short and that the PS4 won't have enough legs to surpass 100 millions of units.

The PS4 will have atleast 5-6 years of market before the PS5 while the PS3 had 7. The difference isn't that big, the PS3 was the only Playstation console that did not sold 100 millions + units.

 

We need to wait until after the holidays in order to know how well the PS4 sold. I think that 2017 will be PS4's peak year

And thats a ridiculous assumption on their part. The PS4pro and Scorpio and even the NS coming next year pretty much guaranteed that this gen isn't ending in the next 3yrs. I have talked about this before, we need at least another fabrication die shrink to have tech that could even remotely facilitate what we would consider as next gen hardware. On the 14nm process, the  PS4pro and scorpio is the best we will get till 7nm fabrication comes along. 

And by all indications we wont even see the first 7nm chips till 2019 if we are lucky. And that's talking about Intel who usually gets there first and then everyone catches on like 1/2yrs later. By 2018 we could start seeing 10nm chips but that will only be good for  smaller consoles and lower prices and not good enough for performance bumps similar to what we have now from PS4-PS4pro.

I am with you on 2017 being the PS4s peak year, and i don't see too much of a drop off from then to 2018.