Mummelmann said:
Hard to say, depends on the Pro, how the Xbox brand will do in NA for the remainder of the gen, pricing strategy etc. but 100 million should be within reason. With around half that after three years on the market, it would need to sell the same for another three years to get to 100 million fast, factor in a decline unlike the PS3 and 360's unusually late peak due to unique circumstances on the market and ushering of the HD era on consoles and TV and what is likely to be a shorter gen than the last with a steep drop-off once new hardware is made available, and 100 million is a fairly reasonable prediction in my opinion. One could argue that the market hasn't changed that much, the problem with that statement is the relative lack of momentum for the PS4 despite its utter dominance over two main competitors; there should be more room for faster sales according to historical trends, but there doesn't seem to be that much, one console is down and out, or even DOA, and the other is only now selling decent amounts in one major market but slightly flailing globally. The PS4 has, so far, not outsold the PS3's best year by any big margin, which is quite telling given the above factors and the PS3's rather poor start (2015 saw the PS4 sell about 15-17% more than the PS3's best year, the PS3 was a third place console for most of the gen). In short; with positive press, good pricing, some good software, great functionality and weak competition thus far, the conditions should be more or less optimal for the PS4, yet it hasn't really taken off in the manner that many expected. I still remember how ridiculous many thought I was being when I said that I don't think it will ever have a 20 million selling year. I can still be wrong on most fronts, but so far it seems to be proceeding pretty much as expected. |
50M after their 3rd year - that's what all the PS consoles do, not just the PS3. And it doesn't need to sell the same over the next 3 years - it can do it over the next 5 years.
The best fiscal year sales for the PS3 was 16.5M with the 2nd one being 14.3M. The PS4 did 17.7M in its 2nd year with it being on track to sell 20M this fiscal year. So, the best 2 years of the PS4 would beat the best 2 PS3 years by 22%.
Also, what lack of momentum of the PS4 are you talking about here? Because I'd like to know how you came to that conclusion.
And hasn't taken off? It will be outpacing the PS2 again next quarter. How much faster do you want it to sell?
And again - it is on track to sell 20M this year. That's the forecast at least.
