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Forums - Sales - Why last generation was so long, and what it might mean for this gen.

JRPGfan on 28 October 2016

I think longer gens are healthier for the industry at large.
Install base with access to games = more sales of games.

It also helps with how long developement times are, it would suck to only be able to get 1 or 2 games out every gen, as a studio.

I think the PS4pro & Scorpio will prolong this gen abit.
Im expecting it to last until atleast 2020, and I dont see that as a bad thing.

 

Shadow1980 said:

Overall, though, the PS4 & XBO are still enjoying a better overall price in inflation-adjusted terms than the PS3 & 360, especially during the holidays with temporary price cuts and other promotions, and as a result they are selling at a much faster pace overall and thus they should peak earlier. The PS3 & 360 peaked in their fifth and sixth full year respectively in the U.S. I have a feeling that the PS4 & XBO will both peak next year, which will be their fourth full year. Meanwhile, combined PS2 & OXbox sales are already passing their peak, and the cumulative aligned LTD lead they have over the PS4 & XBO will start to shrink in the coming months. And since they'll peak in between where the PS2+Xbox and PS3+360 peaked, this could result in a slightly shorter generation than last gen as sales will start to enter their terminal decline phase earlier. While there was an 8-year gap between the 360 & XBO, I think at most we'll see a 7-year gap between the PS4 & XBO and their own successors, that is unless their upgraded 4K models help extend things a bit. I fully expect to see a PS5 announced in either 2019 or 2020.

EDITED TO ADD: I forgot to mention the Pro and Scorpio. They are wild cards here and could serve to prolong the current generation beyond what one would normally expect given that the PS4 & XBO are likely to peak earlier than the 360 & PS3. I made some comments about them below in the thread.

the intresting part of this thread was the "what it might mean for this gen" part for me.

I agree 2017 is probably the peak year for both systems.

I also suspect your right about the 7year's until PS5 launch (in 2020).... depending on how successfull PS4pro & Scorpio are, and how far along proccessing nodes for manufactureing have come by then. Its possible its delayed until 2021.



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JRPGfan on 28 October 2016
HoloDust said:
Main reason for length of 7th gen was terrible delays of 28nm node - it took way, way too long for GPUs to hit that 8-10x of PS360 at reasonable price.

Once we see reasonably priced 10nm GPUs with about 8x PS4s GPU, we'll see start of next gen (PS5 that is).

The jump from 16nm FinFET to 10nm, isnt big enough for a new gen to see jumps that big (x8 performance).

Some are saying 7nm may be ready in 2018/2019, but I suspect before its cheap enough it ll be 2020.

That will be the node, the next console gen hinges on.



NightDragon83 on 29 October 2016
Shadow1980 said:
NightDragon83 said:
The biggest reason for the longevity of the last console gen was that the leap from SD to HD home consoles was so huge in terms of graphics that the PS3 and 360 were able to outlast the typical 5 year console cycle, as by 2010/2011 there wasn't a big enough leap in graphics to warrant brand new hardware @ around $400 presumably.

Plus, the 7th gen was also the first generation where all major consoles were fully online capable right out of the box, which allowed them to receive constant software/firmware updates that helped add to their longevity as they kept receiving new features that weren't available at launch.

Doesn't explain this, though:

That's the slow growth and delayed peak I was talking about. Last gen was longer than normal because of the delayed peak, and any theories have to take these differing sales curves into account. The PS3 & 360 had vastly different sales curves compared to anything that came before. I believe launch prices combined with the timing and size of price cuts are the most plausible explanation and is consistent with the evidence.

The jump from SD to HD I discussed in my post also played a large role in the "delayed peak" of the 7th gen, as the HDTV install base in 2005/2006 was relatively low (due mainly to high entry costs), but by the middle of the generation HDTV had become the new standard.

At the same time, both the 360 and PS3 were forward-thinking enough in their hardware capabilites so that by the time the typical declining sales years 4 and 5 rolled around, there was no sign of new hardware on the horizon like there typically is in a 5 year console cycle, and consumers knew they would still be getting plenty of software support including all the latest AAA titles for several more years to come.  Obviously the large price cuts mid-gen helped to greatly spur sales, but in cycles past these types of price cuts usually signified the closing of a console's life cycle along with declining software support in preparation for the coming next geneneration of hardware.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

HoloDust on 29 October 2016
JRPGfan said:
HoloDust said:
Main reason for length of 7th gen was terrible delays of 28nm node - it took way, way too long for GPUs to hit that 8-10x of PS360 at reasonable price.

Once we see reasonably priced 10nm GPUs with about 8x PS4s GPU, we'll see start of next gen (PS5 that is).

The jump from 16nm FinFET to 10nm, isnt big enough for a new gen to see jumps that big (x8 performance).

Some are saying 7nm may be ready in 2018/2019, but I suspect before its cheap enough it ll be 2020.

That will be the node, the next console gen hinges on.

I think it really is, next 1st gen highest end cards from both nVidia and (possibly) AMD built on 10nm will be in that ballpark (given that nVidia's 16nm offering is some 5-6x PS4)...but it comes down to price (hence my reasonably priced comment), so 2nd gen 10nm (if there is to be one) might pull it off.

I'm hoping for 7nm though, not for the sake of pricing itself, but for more then 8x (since 8x is still not sufficient for true 4K resolution jump and expected improvements in visuals).