Why last generation was so long, and what it might mean for this gen.

[NightDragon83]

Shadow1980 said:

NightDragon83 said:
The biggest reason for the longevity of the last console gen was that the leap from SD to HD home consoles was so huge in terms of graphics that the PS3 and 360 were able to outlast the typical 5 year console cycle, as by 2010/2011 there wasn't a big enough leap in graphics to warrant brand new hardware @ around $400 presumably.

Plus, the 7th gen was also the first generation where all major consoles were fully online capable right out of the box, which allowed them to receive constant software/firmware updates that helped add to their longevity as they kept receiving new features that weren't available at launch.

Doesn't explain this, though:

That's the slow growth and delayed peak I was talking about. Last gen was longer than normal because of the delayed peak, and any theories have to take these differing sales curves into account. The PS3 & 360 had vastly different sales curves compared to anything that came before. I believe launch prices combined with the timing and size of price cuts are the most plausible explanation and is consistent with the evidence.

The jump from SD to HD I discussed in my post also played a large role in the "delayed peak" of the 7th gen, as the HDTV install base in 2005/2006 was relatively low (due mainly to high entry costs), but by the middle of the generation HDTV had become the new standard.

At the same time, both the 360 and PS3 were forward-thinking enough in their hardware capabilites so that by the time the typical declining sales years 4 and 5 rolled around, there was no sign of new hardware on the horizon like there typically is in a 5 year console cycle, and consumers knew they would still be getting plenty of software support including all the latest AAA titles for several more years to come.  Obviously the large price cuts mid-gen helped to greatly spur sales, but in cycles past these types of price cuts usually signified the closing of a console's life cycle along with declining software support in preparation for the coming next geneneration of hardware.