link - http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=946

I have heard much discussion about what is selling and what not selling this generation in comparison to last generation. I decided to do some homework and find out what is selling and why (or why not). Basically what I found were 3 main reasons why a particular franchise is or is not fairing as well this generation.

The first reason is user base. With the PS3 I am comparing a user base of 11 million to a user base of over 120 million so obviously PS3 games are going to struggle even equal their predecessors on the PS2. The Wii and 360 are a much more fair comparison I believe at this point.    

The second reason is the actual quality of the game. Super Mario Galaxy has been out four months and is already statistically equal to Super Mario Sunshine. The Reason? Super Mario Galaxy is considered to be the second best game of all time, and SMS is considered by some to be a low point in the Mario franchise. Another game that would fall under this category would be Call of Duty 4. COD4 is selling like gangbusters and is showing no signs of slowing down.

The last reason is hype. Hype tends to go hand in hand with the quality, sometimes not, but it usually does. Halo 3 is not too far from surpassing the lifetime totals of Halo 2. Halo 3 is a great game but hype is what has allowed Halo to sell incredibly well even amongst the intense X360 FPS competition.

Analysis- There is very little that has not already been said about the historic sales of Call of Duty 4. The PS3 version of the game alone has sold 2.73 million copies WW as of March 22, 2008, and its legs have shown little sign of wear. COD4 will remain the FPS of choice for quite some time (even after COD5 hit because COD5 is WW2). While its lifetime totals should pale in comparison to the X360 version I could easily see this title reaching 4 million units sold to consumer by this generations end.

Analysis- Ratchet and Clank: ToD has been mocked and ridiculed for seemingly low sales since its launch. I believe the two main reasons for this to be the fact that many PS3 fans tend to set unattainable expectations for new games before they release. I personally believe that ToD has done pretty decent, nothing amazing, but considering the PS3’s user base (demographics and size) it has done pretty well for itself. Right now it is sitting on 940k, with its legs holding steady and with rising PS3 console sales I could see ToD reaching 1.5 million sometime next year. Which while falling far below the PS2’s average it is still very good considering the PS3’s user base.

Analysis- I am sorry to say this, but I think this franchise has seen its best days…  The HSG series has always been extremely popular in Japan, but with terrible PS3 sales in Japan HSG6 will be lucky to reach 1 million WW. It would appear that this was a game the old line casuals in Japan used to buy for the PS1 and PS2, now they have moved over to the Wii and left the PS casual audience… dead… I blame Wii Fit.

Analysis- This comparison is not really fair to do because the sales of DMC are now divided between 2 console bases. This fact alone makes it nearly impossible for DMC to reach the PS2 average on the PS3. But on a positive note for the PS3 version, it has outsold the 360 version DESPITE have a much smaller user base. As far as future sales go the DMC series usually is very frontload, but I think it can still sell another 400-500k Lifetime. If this happens, DMC4 will actually be near the sales for DMC 2. Quite a feat considering DMC 2 was PS2 exclusive.  

Analysis- Wow… what happened here… The only explanation I can give is that VF5 was released very early in the PS3’s life, and not many fighter players had upgraded to PS3 at that time. I also think the fact this game was “gimped” (no online, etc) may have shelled the sales somewhat. Hopefully VF6 will go over a bit better. Also, there was a 360 version which sold even worse so these sales cannot be blamed on multiplatform like DMC4.

Analysis- This is one of those types of games that the PS3 can forget the good ole days back when it sold good… This game by nature is casual… Star Wars + Lego = Sales (to casuals)… but not to most PS3 owners who did not buy a PS3 to fight with a Lego Yoda…. As you will see later in this analysis the type of buyers who would want this game have moved over to the Wii. I expect this game to continue to sell slowly possibly reaching 600k or so.

Analysis- Just like Lego: SW this game is casual, and will not sell on the PS3 (at least as of now). Also, I believe that Sonic Heroes was a much better game, well, at least better than this. If Sonic Unleashed bombs I would assume PS3 owners can say goodbye to Sonic.

Analysis- This is an extremely important game for Sony consoles in Europe. The fact that this year’s version sold 1.39 million is very encouraging for Sony in others. The only problem is almost 3 million people bought PES for the PS2 which means Sony is not even close to wrapping up the PES audience. This franchise will be make or break for Sony in others, and if the Wii version catches on it could be a bad omen for Sony in Europe. Then again, the Wii and PS3 versions are so different they may just end up dividing the audience.

In conclusion-

Looking at your conclusion it seems as though your trying to say the PS3 will be the N64 of this generation (far less games than it's counterparts, but the highest number of the generation's gems).

My problem with this is the possibility that the 360 is probably already halfway to having that crown (Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears, Lost Odyssey) and of course the major issue, Sony's first party will NEVER match what Nintendo did for the N64.

Other than that, your numbers and subsequent analysis seem very sound, well done.


Edit: I posted this comment in the news section as well.

y does this need to be posted twice? (in forums + news)

The source usually post his editorials in both, I figured if people were going to start a flame war they could at least keep it off the news section so I posted it here.

First, three of those four 360 games you listed can be bought on PC (though ME not until May). Most of the 360's games can be bought on PC, but that's not the main point of my post.

Second, Sony's first party is the only thing capable of competing with Nintendo. Not so much the Nintendo of today, but the Nintendo of ten years ago? Easily.  Their franchises may not have the brand recognition of Nintendo's, but that's because they produce more new IPs on a consistent basis than Nintendo (with the exception of Gran Turismo).

Just look at the ps3's big games so far.  Uncharted, Resistance, MotorStorm, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, etc. are all Sony owned IPs, and many of the ps3's most anticipated upcoming releases are also Sony 1st/2nd party titles (LittleBigPlanet, White Knight Chronicles, inFamous, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, Socom: Confrontation, God of War III, etc.), with the exception of MGS4, FFXIII, and Tekken 6 and a few multiplats.

Sure Sony has been a bit slow to produce games for the ps3 so far, but that's because they've still been focusing heavily on the ps2 (God of War II and Rogue Galaxy being the most notable releases in the past year), but that is changing now that Sony is focusing fully on the ps3.

And just so you can see how numerous Sony's 1st/2nd party franchises are, click here. It's a full list of Sony owned IPs.  Below I've compiled a list of the more notable franchises, ordered roughly by genre:

Jak & Daxter
Ape Escape
Sly Cooper (might be 2nd party)
Ratchet & Clank (2nd party)
God of War
Ico/Shadow of the Colossus
Dark Cloud (2nd party)
Uncharted
Socom
Killzone
Syphon Filter
Resistance (2nd party)
Twisted Metal
Gran Turismo
MotorStorm
WipEout
F1
MLB: The Show
Hot Shots Golf

And then there are many other IPs that aren't part of a franchise yet (Rogue Galaxy, Warhawk, Heavenly Sword, etc.).

Useless article.

You didn't take into account the fact that most of those PS3 games are still selling fairly well, and that he PS2 had a much larger install base when released.

Overall, doesn't really tell us anything useful, and certainly isn't worthy of a post in the news section.

 Please read before posting something unecessarily negative.  

(quoted from OP) 

"The first reason is user base. With the PS3 I am comparing a user base of 11 million to a user base of over 120 million so obviously PS3 games are going to struggle even equal their predecessors on the PS2. The Wii and 360 are a much more fair comparison I believe at this point."

Of course he said that, but it didn't have any effect on his conclusions.

I also said that the PS3 is hardcore, and its average gamer buys more games. I also said there is not much competition right now on the PS3 so many people are buying the same good games... much like the Wii. Not a large amount of great games on the Wii so everyone is buying the same games...