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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Lets get real about the most likely scenario with NS.

bigtakilla on 23 October 2016
Final-Fan said:
bigtakilla said:

I never said Xbone was a great name did I?

Fair enough.  I could point out that it's precedent for even a terrible name not mattering, but you already admitted this was likely to be the case in the OP. 

Yeah, and that is something I believe. People will come up with a name they'll want to call it. The name really doesn't matter.



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lionpetercarmoo on 23 October 2016
Slimebeast said:
Soundwave said:
I agree with some of the points of the OP.

Switch isn't a great name, but it's not terrible either. It's kind of like GameCube ... it's just sorta ... "ok". NS rolls off the tounge fine too, I don't see why it doesn't and "NX" or "DS" does. Most importantly it's a clean break from the toxic "Wii" branding.

I think Western third party support will be wishy washy. Maybe like what the Wii U had for it's first two holiday seasons at best (some multiplats, while missing other ones). Japanese support will be good, maybe even better than the 3DS because it has some real horsepower to handle even high end games provided the dev is willing to downscale them some.

The home console exeperience that it offers is not likely to be great, it just doesn't have the horsepower there. Tegra X1/X2 are good chips but they don't stack up with even a XBox One S.

It will sell better than a Wii U because it's actually portable but I think it will be below the 3DS unless several things go right for Nintendo (ie: new hit breakthrough IP like Pokemon or Splatoon).

Switch is a fabulous name. People just haven't got used to it yet.

You say sepcificially "home console experience", but that doesn't imply you think there will be two different power modes, correct?

You're just comparing it as a home console to the other home consoles and asking if that Tegra power is competitive. Yes, I got it.

It will be double the Wii U in power, yes? Like halfways between a Wii U and Xbox One.

How many millions per year do you think it will sell? I believe first year 10 million but then 12 million per year for a few years.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA



Lawlight on 23 October 2016

Why are people expecting Japan devs to support the Switch but not the PS4?



Alkibiádēs on 23 October 2016
Lawlight said:
Why are people expecting Japan devs to support the Switch but not the PS4?

Because the PS4 is not mobile and Japanese gamers like to game on the go.

That's why Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Professor Layton and Kingdom Hearts were all on the 3DS. That's why Square Enix announced that Dragon Quest XI was coming to the NX (and now that we've seen the graphical capabilities of the Switch we know that it will be the PS4 version).

If everything goes to plan the Nintendo Switch can have an incredibly attractive line-up for Japanese gamers:

- Mario Kart: Switch (enhanced port of Mario Kart 8)

- Splatoon (enhanced port, but now mobile! The Japanese gamers will eat this up!)

- Super Mario Switch (just look at how good Super Mario 3D Land sold in Japan)

- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Zelda isn't the most popular franchise in Japan, but this will likely be released first on the Switch)

- Dragon Quest XI (the PS4 version, likely of inferior quality, but still decent enough.)

 

And these are just the games we know of now, the following games are very likely to come to the Switch eventually as well:

- A new Monster Hunter (the first to be built from the ground up with HD graphics in mind)

- Animal Crossing (this is a no-brainer, Animal Crossing is huge in Japan)

- Tomodachi Life sequel (also very likely, this is popular in Japan and Europe)

- Fire Emblem (another no-brainer and the franchise continues to grow. There's also a Fire Emblem game coming for smartphones which will likely boost the franchise even higher. Just look at the boost old Pokémon games got from Pokémon Go.)

- Pokémon (Gamefreak already confirmed they will be developing games for the NX)

- A new 2D Mario (this is again a no-brainer)

- A new Yokai Watch (Level-5 was on the partners list for the NX. The series is still very popular over there.)

- Super Smash Bros. (and now with characters from Splatoon and perhaps even Yokai Watch!)

I really don't see how the PS4 will be able to compete with a line-up like that.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

KLXVER on 23 October 2016
Lawlight said:
Why are people expecting Japan devs to support the Switch but not the PS4?

I think developers will still support the PS4. Sony has a great relationship with third parties and they, like MS, arent afraid to throw some money their way. Nintendo doesnt really do that.



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Alkibiádēs on 23 October 2016
KLXVER said:
Lawlight said:
Why are people expecting Japan devs to support the Switch but not the PS4?

I think developers will still support the PS4. Sony has a great relationship with third parties and they, like MS, arent afraid to throw some money their way. Nintendo doesnt really do that.

Nintendo has heavily supported and advertized the localisations of Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest in the West.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

Frogger on 23 October 2016
bigtakilla said:
spemanig said:

"This will more than likely mean these (western) games will only be there for a year or two then disappear"

I'm not sure this is set in stone quite yet, to be honest. If Nintendo doesn't have good third party support on the Switch long term, it'll have more to do with them not having the audience. It won't be because of power. I think they can have the audience, because I think too many people are underestimating just how many people value portability over horsepower.

The Switch isn't a console/handheld hybrid - it's a console's functional equivalent to a laptop. It's a totally different beast altogether. No one who has a laptop wishes that they had a more powerful home computer instead. The only people who would rather have a home computer are enthusiasts or people who have specific jobs that require them. Most people do more than get by with a laptop, because most people don't need that power.

I think the same will be of the Switch. Most people who play games play them casually - they aren't enthusiasts like us. Let's not even talk about leaving your house for a second - there are a lot of people who will find immense value just in being able to sit in bed with the Switch plugged into a charger (like with the Gamepad). There's a real argument to be made over whether the best version of a game like GTA6 will be the most powerful one or the most flexible one, and a lot of people will go for the latter.

If you asked me if I would rather watch Youtube on my TV in 4K, or on my laptop at only 720p, I would pick my laptop every time because I am almost never home and 720p is frankly more than enough. I think that a lot more people than anyone thinks is going to find that more valuable, which means that every multi-platform game will have a real financial incentive to port their games to the Switch.

I say that the audience is what's important because if people don't associate the Switch with multi-platform games by the end of its first year, the thing is done. That comes down to associative marketing. If Nintendo wants third party games, they have to market the Switch as a third party, multiplat system first and foremost. That means marketing deals with EA and Take-Two for their sports game commercials. Every Madden 2018 commercial has to have the actors playing the game on the Switch exclusively, with their new "No Play Like It" slogan at the end of every one. If there is a big shooter or open world game coming out next year, Nintendo needs to nab exclusive marketing rights for it. Every ad for something like Mass Effect: Andromeda has to be played on the Switch, highlighting its portability as more valuable than its fidelity, with "No Play Like It" at the end. If there aren't people who mistakenly think that a the third party games are exclusive to the Switch because of the way the games were marketed, then Nintendo is doing something wrong. There were people who thought that Destiny was a Sony exclusive. Nintendo has to do that for the Switch many times over, and they have to do it by holiday of next year.

They do that for a year, and they will have excellent 3rd party support. I don't think they'll ever get to a point where it's ubiquitous because some games are just too complex, but most games frankly are not. Most games are prettier versions of last gen ideas, and Switch games don't need to be that pretty. Taking Red Dead Redemption 2 as an example, if that game was ported to the Switch but only looked like the original Red Dead Redemption on the PS360, most people wouldn't care or notice. The form factor gives it that leeway. I think that they can definitely get to a point where 85% of third party games that are made are put on the system, and thats a more than good enough number.

If they do that (on top of some other OS/Account-based stuff), I have every confidence saying that the Switch will be the second Wii- no, the second Nintendo DS phenomenon for them. It will, quite literally, take over the world. This idea is that good. Especially when you factor in how much mindshare they are setting themselves up for next year. They'll have the Switch out, a steady stream of exclusive games all year round pretty much guaranteed, Super Mario Run will have come out, they'll likely have the two mobile games coming out on top of newly announced ones, they're probable going to announce their first film next year with possibly a trailer, and you're probably going to hear more about their theme park in concrete details. Nintendo is going to have a lot of momentum next year from things that have nothing to do with their video games, and that has everything to do with their video games because it's going to make their brand positive again.

That would mean that 

A: The hardcore crowd will buy 2 games, one they can play 4k on, and one the can play at 720p. Not likely

 

B: The casual fanbase would have to want these 60 dollar experiences and a console that costs whatever. I hope they keep the console's price down if this is the case.

 

Or C: Expect that people are going to choose this on the NS because it's portable... Which I really don't see that happening either.

 

Assuming they did everything you wrote (celebs in commercials, every multiplat commercial shows someone with a NS) it just might have a big enough impact. But I'm simply not sure how much appeal this is going to have with the spec heads, and the shooter crowds. It will also have everything to do with how many of these consoled Nintendo can get in peoples hands day 1. It's certainly gonna be an uphill battle with the Pro and Scorpio either already out or on its heels.

Well I'm not talking about enthusiast gamers at all. I'm not expecting anyone to buy two versions of third party games. I'm talking about casuals, who already buy $60 games on other consoles. When I say casuals, I mean your typical gamer who only buys 1-3 games a year. People who play video games asa casual past time.

I'm expecting B and C to happen, and I don't even thing that up for debate at this point. The teaser has been up for 3 day and has already been seen 16m+ times. The intrest for a portable console is there. I don't think I can be any more clear than with my laptop commercial. It's not so much portability as it is flexibility. It just the idea of not being tethered to something that's valuable to a lot of people, as is proven by the popularization of laptops. Most people don't value power as long as it meets a certain thresh hold. Laptops reached that threshhold years ago, and the Switch finally reached it by being the first commercial portable HD console from one of the big three. Most people are going to play a game like Skyrim on their Switch in HD and not be able to see a noticeable enough difference for it to matter, and that's all that counts. Like I said, I think most people are seriously misunderstanding how much the average person values convenience over fidelity.

Also, when I said actors, I didn't mean celebrities. I just mean the people in the commercials. I think what many people don't seem to understand is just how tiny the demographic of hardcore gamers there are in comparison to casual gamers. Video games aren't niche anymore. If a game is selling to over a million people, most of that game was sold to casuals. Even something that might seem niche like a JRPG, most of them are probably casual. My best friend is a huge Persona fan, and he is the very definition of a casual gamer. This is meant to appeal to people like that.

The Pro and Scorpio aren't really an issue for the Switch because they have nothing on its angle. Like I said, no one who likes laptops cares about how much more powerful desktops are. If they can browse social media without a problem, that's all they care about. Similarly with Switch, if someone plays Call of Duty every year, and can play the newest game in HD on their Switch and online with their friend, that's all they'll care about.

And if the Switch is $249 like I am praying it will be, I'm confident you will have a serious case of Wii-syndrom where many people who already own a PS4/XBO will buy a Switch as well just because the price is so low. If that happens, you will have real situations where many people will have friends who also own Switches, meaning that when a multiplayer game is on both Switch and XBO or PS4, they'll have a real incentive to buy the Switch version knowing that they can play with their friends, play without paying for online, and be able to have the flexibility to play the game where ever they want.

If the Switch is $249 and has good western third party support, it is absolutely going to easily decimate the PS4 and XBO going forward without a doubt in my mind. If it's $300 with that support, it's going to compete very well against them and I still think it will cream them. If it doesn't have good western support, it's in some serious trouble. The portability only shines bright when applied to multiplats. Playing exclusive games wherever you want when there's nothing to compare them to on other playforms isn't what's valuable - playing almost anything that comes out wherever you want is. It's the difference between saying that you can play Mario on your lunch breaks or saying that you can play GTA V on your lunch breaks.



KLXVER on 23 October 2016
Alkibiádēs said:
KLXVER said:

I think developers will still support the PS4. Sony has a great relationship with third parties and they, like MS, arent afraid to throw some money their way. Nintendo doesnt really do that.

Nintendo has heavily supported and advertized the localisations of Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest in the West.

Yeah, you are right. They have been good to developers who make exclusive games for them.



Lawlight on 23 October 2016
Alkibiádēs said:
Lawlight said:
Why are people expecting Japan devs to support the Switch but not the PS4?

Because the PS4 is not mobile and Japanese gamers like to game on the go.

That's why Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Professor Layton and Kingdom Hearts were all on the 3DS. That's why Square Enix announced that Dragon Quest XI was coming to the NX (and now that we've seen the graphical capabilities of the Switch we know that it will be the PS4 version).

If everything goes to plan the Nintendo Switch can have an incredibly attractive line-up for Japanese gamers:

- Mario Kart: Switch (enhanced port of Mario Kart 8)

- Splatoon (enhanced port, but now mobile! The Japanese gamers will eat this up!)

- Super Mario Switch (just look at how good Super Mario 3D Land sold in Japan)

- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Zelda isn't the most popular franchise in Japan, but this will likely be released first on the Switch)

- Dragon Quest XI (the PS4 version, likely of inferior quality, but still decent enough.)

 

And these are just the games we know of now, the following games are very likely to come to the Switch eventually as well:

- A new Monster Hunter (the first to be built from the ground up with HD graphics in mind)

- Animal Crossing (this is a no-brainer, Animal Crossing is huge in Japan)

- Tomodachi Life sequel (also very likely, this is popular in Japan and Europe)

- Fire Emblem (another no-brainer and the franchise continues to grow. There's also a Fire Emblem game coming for smartphones which will likely boost the franchise even higher. Just look at the boost old Pokémon games got from Pokémon Go.)

- Pokémon (Gamefreak already confirmed they will be developing games for the NX)

- A new 2D Mario (this is again a no-brainer)

- A new Yokai Watch (Level-5 was on the partners list for the NX. The series is still very popular over there.)

- Super Smash Bros. (and now with characters from Splatoon and perhaps even Yokai Watch!)

I really don't see how the PS4 will be able to compete with a line-up like that.

Dragon Quest is coming to th PS4 and all of the Kindgon Hearts games are on the PS4 as well with the new one coming too. How is Professor Layton going to work with a touchscreen now? And is this the first year that a main Monster Hunter game has not been released?

A lot of the smaller games have been getting away with low development cost with poor graphics. How much will Monster Hunter in HD cost to make? And will 1 system b enough to support its sale? Remains to be seen.



Alkibiádēs on 23 October 2016
Lawlight said:
Alkibiádēs said:

Because the PS4 is not mobile and Japanese gamers like to game on the go.

That's why Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Professor Layton and Kingdom Hearts were all on the 3DS. That's why Square Enix announced that Dragon Quest XI was coming to the NX (and now that we've seen the graphical capabilities of the Switch we know that it will be the PS4 version).

If everything goes to plan the Nintendo Switch can have an incredibly attractive line-up for Japanese gamers:

- Mario Kart: Switch (enhanced port of Mario Kart 8)

- Splatoon (enhanced port, but now mobile! The Japanese gamers will eat this up!)

- Super Mario Switch (just look at how good Super Mario 3D Land sold in Japan)

- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Zelda isn't the most popular franchise in Japan, but this will likely be released first on the Switch)

- Dragon Quest XI (the PS4 version, likely of inferior quality, but still decent enough.)

 

And these are just the games we know of now, the following games are very likely to come to the Switch eventually as well:

- A new Monster Hunter (the first to be built from the ground up with HD graphics in mind)

- Animal Crossing (this is a no-brainer, Animal Crossing is huge in Japan)

- Tomodachi Life sequel (also very likely, this is popular in Japan and Europe)

- Fire Emblem (another no-brainer and the franchise continues to grow. There's also a Fire Emblem game coming for smartphones which will likely boost the franchise even higher. Just look at the boost old Pokémon games got from Pokémon Go.)

- Pokémon (Gamefreak already confirmed they will be developing games for the NX)

- A new 2D Mario (this is again a no-brainer)

- A new Yokai Watch (Level-5 was on the partners list for the NX. The series is still very popular over there.)

- Super Smash Bros. (and now with characters from Splatoon and perhaps even Yokai Watch!)

I really don't see how the PS4 will be able to compete with a line-up like that.

Dragon Quest is coming to th PS4 and all of the Kindgon Hearts games are on the PS4 as well with the new one coming too. How is Professor Layton going to work with a touchscreen now? And is this the first year that a main Monster Hunter game has not been released?

A lot of the smaller games have been getting away with low development cost with poor graphics. How much will Monster Hunter in HD cost to make? And will 1 system b enough to support its sale? Remains to be seen.

Who said the Switch won't have a touch screen? It might only be playable when the tablet is not in the dock. Or they might find a new control scheme, I've never played the franchise, so I can't really say much about it.

I never said Dragon Quest wasn't coming to the PS4. It will most likely sell better on the mobile console though. I can even see games like Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest Builders coming to the Switch instead of remaining Playstation exclusives. Monster Hunter sales on home consoles have never been very impressive, so Nintendo will likely give Capcom some incentive to keep it exclusive. They'd be morons if they didn't really.

Developing for the Switch will still be cheaper than developing for the PS4 by the way.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides