Gballzack, it's obvious you have very little, to no, knowledge of either format or their industry support. First of, the porn industry is going to play a very little part in the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war.
Nowadays most of the sales the porn industry carries is from online, the sales of their disc-based products is irrelevant to the overall success of either format. Second, you brought up the argument of popular movies (Or Matrix in your example) for HD-DVD only, when in reality, it's the other way around. Blu-Ray has the majority of movie support (With popular box-office hits such as Spiderman and Pirates coming on Blu-Ray only). Blu-Ray is definitely running away with the marketshare. With vast majority of industry support, the PS3, and popular titles coming out for the format, I could see that trend continuing for quite awhile.