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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 73 Game Thread - Is that you, Archer?

theprof00 on 19 October 2016

Let me emphasize again this last part because I just know you are going to be like, "see! see! he is trying to get me lynched"

I have no intention of lynching you today or any other day, I just wouldn't mind if I didn't have to deal with you at all.



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theprof00 on 19 October 2016

lol I don't even want to play anymore.

This shit is mind-numbing.



theprof00 on 19 October 2016

unvote
vote: prof



theprof00 on 19 October 2016
zero129 said:
theprof00 said:

No, zero.

Let me spell it out for you again, because I thought it was clear enough above.
We have 7.
I'm assuming 2 mafia, because 1 would be completely unfair. The general rule is 1 to 3. Or 1 in every 4 players is mafia. If we have 2, that means 2/7 instead of 2/8. So mafia have the advantage here. It only takes 3 deaths to bring the total population down to 4. And if there are 2 mafia, then the game is over when there is 2 mafia and 2 town, because town can't lynch a mafia without a majority unless somehow a mafia votes for another mafia.

Are you with me so far?

Ok

We have 7 now. 2 mafia 5 town
If we lynch someone and they turn out to be town, there will be 2 mafia 4 town
Then scum kills someone tonight, making it 2 mafia 3 town
Then on day 2, we have to lynch a mafia, because if we lynch another town, it makes it 2 mafia 2 town, which is unwinnable.
Therefore, because the only way we have a chance at winning is to lynch a mafia, lynching today gives us 2 chances. Day 1 and day 2

Are you still with me?

If we DON'T lynch today, we go into the night with 2 mafia 5 town.
mafia kills someone making it 2 mafia, 4 town.
Then tomorrow, say we lynch someone and they turn out to be town. That makes 2 mafia, 3 town.
Then we go into Night 2, and mafia kills another town, making it 2 mafia, 2 town.
On day 3, town can't lynch a mafia because they don't have majority. Town is only 50% and you need more than 50% to lynch.
So, going this route we get one chance to lynch.

deja vu yet? I literally just wrote this in the quoted above.
So, going with a lynch today, we get a 2/7 chance to get a mafia (ie; there are 2 mafia out of 7 players) and then a 2/5 chance to get a mafia. That's a 28% chance and a 40% chance.
If we don't lynch today and instead just lynch on day 2, we only get a single 2/6 chance. 30%.

Both scenarios end on day 2. The choice we have is whether to get two lynches, or one.

So no, zero, it's not a bad post from me. These are all bad posts from you. But in your mind, you're right, so that must mean that math is mafia.

All you have done is once again explained to me why it would be better to go for a no lynch today.

You have just explained once again that lynching someone today is doing nothing other then making things easier for mafia and taking a day away from town.

This post gave me cancer



theprof00 on 19 October 2016
zero129 said:
theprof00 said:

No, zero.

Let me spell it out for you again, because I thought it was clear enough above.
We have 7.
I'm assuming 2 mafia, because 1 would be completely unfair. The general rule is 1 to 3. Or 1 in every 4 players is mafia. If we have 2, that means 2/7 instead of 2/8. So mafia have the advantage here. It only takes 3 deaths to bring the total population down to 4. And if there are 2 mafia, then the game is over when there is 2 mafia and 2 town, because town can't lynch a mafia without a majority unless somehow a mafia votes for another mafia.

Are you with me so far?

Ok

We have 7 now. 2 mafia 5 town
If we lynch someone and they turn out to be town, there will be 2 mafia 4 town
Then scum kills someone tonight, making it 2 mafia 3 town
Then on day 2, we have to lynch a mafia, because if we lynch another town, it makes it 2 mafia 2 town, which is unwinnable.
Therefore, because the only way we have a chance at winning is to lynch a mafia, lynching today gives us 2 chances. Day 1 and day 2

Are you still with me?

If we DON'T lynch today, we go into the night with 2 mafia 5 town.
mafia kills someone making it 2 mafia, 4 town.
Then tomorrow, say we lynch someone and they turn out to be town. That makes 2 mafia, 3 town.
Then we go into Night 2, and mafia kills another town, making it 2 mafia, 2 town.
On day 3, town can't lynch a mafia because they don't have majority. Town is only 50% and you need more than 50% to lynch.
So, going this route we get one chance to lynch.

deja vu yet? I literally just wrote this in the quoted above.
So, going with a lynch today, we get a 2/7 chance to get a mafia (ie; there are 2 mafia out of 7 players) and then a 2/5 chance to get a mafia. That's a 28% chance and a 40% chance.
If we don't lynch today and instead just lynch on day 2, we only get a single 2/6 chance. 30%.

Both scenarios end on day 2. The choice we have is whether to get two lynches, or one.

So no, zero, it's not a bad post from me. These are all bad posts from you. But in your mind, you're right, so that must mean that math is mafia.

All you have done is once again explained to me why it would be better to go for a no lynch today.

You have just explained once again that lynching someone today is doing nothing other then making things easier for mafia and taking a day away from town.

This post gave me cancer



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theprof00 on 19 October 2016
zero129 said:
theprof00 said:

This post gave me cancer

Dude thats not a nice thing to say for people who have had loved ones die from cancer.

When you see the pain a loved one goes though it will make you hate that name..

Vote: No lynch .

smh I work in cancer research, now vote me so I don't have to talk to you.



Mr.Playstation on 19 October 2016

From recent activity, Prof has pretty much confirmed that he's town (Not 100%, never 100%).

A mafia would rarely if ever actually sacrifice themselves especially in such a small game where there can't possibly be more then 2 Mafia members (As Prof has shown, it is already quite unbalanced as it is).

He also believes that lynching someone today also gives town a better chance to succeed, which he proved using some math which is irrefutable. On the other hand Zero is against a lynch because he believes ( Quoted below )

"Even if i believe a no lynch would be best"

Anyways #SaveProf

Not going to determine Zero's allignment (I.E Mafia or Town) 'cause I'm not sure. He could just as easily be a town citizen as Prof. Seems like it to me anyways.



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Linkzmax on 19 October 2016

I'm possibly going to respond to stuff out of order, depending on how things go.

Most importantly, prof please unvote yourself. I certainly will get to why you're almost surely town, but you need to shake yourself off and get back to scumhunting. Ignore zero if you need to.

zero129 said:

zero, I want to start off by letting you know that I share one of prof's promises if you will. That is that I have no intention of lynching you in this game. Now that you have no need to be defensive at the mention of your name, please think this through:

If we decide not to lynch today, what will we most likely enter Day 2 with? And what do you think will be the result of a mislynch Day 2 in that scenario?



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Linkzmax on 19 October 2016

Looks like I'll have to wait longer to determine if my other responses are worth the effort.

Mr.Playstation said:
From recent activity, Prof has pretty much confirmed that he's town (Not 100%, never 100%).

A mafia would rarely if ever actually sacrifice themselves especially in such a small game where there can't possibly be more then 2 Mafia members (As Prof has shown, it is already quite unbalanced as it is).

The self-vote is indeed not a town tell. For one, it's hardly a sacrifice since prof doesn't have any other votes, but in general mafia could just pretend to incite the type of reaction you gave. Further, town should never sacrifice themselves either as it harms their team nearly just as much.

I am about 95% on prof being town, because his frustration was palpable. You can follow the exchange as it goes from kind words of wisdom, to a bit of agression with the sarcasm, to brutal honesty, and finally throwing his hands up and walking away. I'd give it 4% chance that prof is scum and zero is town, where prof is still trying to get zero to improve his play for the thrill of the challenge. Thus it's still genuine frustration, but I find it far less likely that prof would go to so much trouble instead of giving up after only a couple of posts. The final 1% is they're both scum and the whole act will be cemented forever in my mind as genius.

While I'm quoting you. I gather you played with Xander last round. What do you make of him this game? 



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Linkzmax on 19 October 2016
spurgeonryan said:

Also I do not get or maybe I just do not understand, why are we promising zero that he is not going to be lynched ever?

Because he won't, and then we can maybe get some actual scumhunting done.

And thanks for your latest post.(as well as taking it upon yourself to tell me about Xander) I was going to ask for your thoughts on Mr.Playstation, what do you mean by he's been consistent?



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