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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. October bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

GribbleGrunger on 23 October 2016

3 hours since last update:

HARDWARE
#23 PSVR Headset (up 4)
#26 PS4 Pro (same)*
#50 N3DSXL Lime (down 1)
#63 PS4s UC4 Bundle (down 2)
#74 PS4 Fool's Edition (up 1)
#75 PS4 UC4 Bundle (down 2)
#82 PSVR Launch Bundle (same)
#97 XB1s-1tb Battlefield Bundle (down 2)

Does not affect this month (*)

SOFTWARE (pre-orders only)
#05 3DS Pokemon Moon (down 1)
#07 3DS Pokemon Sun (down 1)
#17 PSVR Robinson The Journey (same)
#30 PS4 World Of Final Fantasy (down 2)
#80 Vita World Of Final Fantasy (down 2)

PS4: 4 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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Ryng on 23 October 2016
bluedawgs said:
Gears numbers will be nowhere close to 850k, Xbox players are buying Battlefield and Titanfall

But you expect Gears on XBO to outsell Titanfall.



bluedawgs on 23 October 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:
bluedawgs said:
Gears numbers will be nowhere close to 850k, Xbox players are buying Battlefield and Titanfall

But you expect Gears on XBO to outsell Titanfall.

Nah, I predicted Titanfall will sell a million

Also, you know you're gonna be wrong with the Gears prediction so you might as well just change it now. Halo 5 sold 842k stand alone and 935k with bundles in its first month, and that was with the only competition being Assassin's Creed. Gears sells under 100k in the United Kingdom at launch which is at the very least 50k down from Halo 5's opening and obviously won't sell as much as Halo 5 since Halo is bigger in the United States yet you predict Gears will sell more than Halo 5 stand alone did with much more competition in the same month? Battlefield, Titanfall, Skyrim, Mafia, all games oriented towards the Xbox player and all of them having shooting mechanics besides skyrim but that was big for the 360 and Xbox players like Elder Scrolls. No chance for 850k and you should know that considering how long you've been involved in sales discussion and how many predictions you've made.



Ryng on 23 October 2016
bluedawgs said:

Nah, I predicted Titanfall will sell a million

Yes and i said ON XBOX ONE. Unless you expect >65% of sales from XBO, you probabily expect Titanfall on Xbox one to sell less than Gears.

bluedawgs said:

Also, you know you're gonna be wrong with the Gears prediction so you might as well just change it now.

Oh, so you know what i'm thinking, and you know that i know i'm wrong. Is this a joke?

bluedawgs said:

Gears sells under 100k in the United Kingdom at launch which is at the very least 50k down from Halo 5's opening and obviusly won't sell as much as Halo 5 since Halo is bigger in the United States yet you predict Gears will sell more than Halo 5 stand alone did much more competition in the same month?

Gears tecnically sold less than 105k, not 100k, and i don't think it's much under that, anyway what you are missing is that we are talking about NPD SALES, not first week, Halo 5 got only 2 days of sales in October NPD, while Gears has almost an intere month of sales, yet i expect Gears in 3 weeks to sell less than Halo 5 in one week. And what the hell mean "you predict Gears will sell more than Halo 5 stand alone"? I predict TOTAL Gears of War sales will be worse than total Halo 5 sales, bundle including for both.

bluedawgs said:

No chance for 850k and you should know that considering how long you've been involved in sales discussion and how many predictions you've made

That's the most fun part.

Yes i'm into sales since years right now, and that's why I KNOW how unpredictable the market is, and i know how much is abused the word "no chance".

Right now i can make a list of billions and billions of "crazy predictions" which in the end turned out right or the most close to real, and how many times the word "no chance" is wrong.

In this case, if you really don't know what say, you expect Gears of War 4 to sell >650k in the first month in USA, if you think there are NO CHANCE for sells only < 30% more than what YOU predict, then i must say you are really confident in your prediction. For what say, Gears can do whatever 500k to 1.5 million first month, and whatever it sells i'm not gonna eat crow. So i really hope for you that the 650k prediction is right, in others ways, you'll have to eat some crow.



bluedawgs on 23 October 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:

Yes and i said ON XBOX ONE. Unless you expect >65% of sales from XBO, you probabily expect Titanfall on Xbox one to sell less than Gears.

No I predicted less than 650k Gears, not 650k, less than 650k. I don't know how much less than, but I predict less than 650k and yeah I think Titanfall will sell more than Gears on Xbox One alone


Oh, so you know what i'm thinking, and you know that i know i'm wrong. Is this a joke?

Yes I know literally everything that you think. I can read your mind. (Is this comment a joke?)


Gears tecnically sold less than 105k, not 100k, and i don't think it's much under that, anyway what you are missing is that we are talking about NPD SALES, not first week, Halo 5 got only 2 days of sales in October NPD, while Gears has almost an intere month of sales, yet i expect Gears in 3 weeks to sell less than Halo 5 in one week. And what the hell mean "you predict Gears will sell more than Halo 5 stand alone"? I predict TOTAL Gears of War sales will be worse than total Halo 5 sales, bundle including for both.

Halo 5 standalone sold 842k copies, the base game, the version that the most amount of people bought. The game, not the bundle. 842k without bundles, 935k with bundles. You understand? You predict 850k Gears, that is 8,000 more copies than Halo 5 stand alone, aka Halo 5 "without bundles"


That's the most fun part.

Yes i'm into sales since years right now, and that's why I KNOW how unpredictable the market is, and i know how much is abused the word "no chance".

Right now i can make a list of billions and billions of "crazy predictions" which in the end turned out right or the most close to real, and how many times the word "no chance" is wrong.

In this case, if you really don't know what say, you expect Gears of War 4 to sell >650k in the first month in USA, if you think there are NO CHANCE for sells only < 30% more than what YOU predict, then i must say you are really confident in your prediction. For what say, Gears can do whatever 500k to 1.5 million first month, and whatever it sells i'm not gonna eat crow. So i really hope for you that the 650k prediction is right, in others ways, you'll have to eat some crow.

It sounds like you're trying to say "anything is possible" which is useless. I'm basing my predictions off of the lack of hype and buzz and general fucks given for Gears 4, the amazon position that it has, the abysmal sales for all of Microsoft's first party games and the fact that Gears has always been below Gears in terms of popularity and with Gears 4 it is obvious. I live in the United States man, it is obvious that Halo 5 was a much bigger deal last year than Gears is this year.  Also, Uncharted 4 sold 828k "without bundles" and that was on the much more popular console in the US which is PS4, and it had so much damn hype it was ridiculous and it was received better with an arguably higher marketing budget, I don't see Gears outselling Uncharted in its launch month especially by 22,000 units. I'm fine with eating some crow, you think I would be mad if a game did better than my expectations? Nope.


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GribbleGrunger on 23 October 2016

4 hours since last update:

HARDWARE
#25 PS4 Pro (up 1)*
#32 PSVR Headset (down 9)
 #43 N3DSXL Lime (up 7)
#67 PS4s UC4 Bundle (down 4)
#76 PS4 Fool's Edition (down 2)
#80 PS4 UC4 Bundle (down 5)
 #84 PSVR Launch Bundle (down 2)
#94 XB1s-1tb Battlefield Bundle (up 3)

Does not affect this month (*)

SOFTWARE (pre-orders only)
#05 3DS Pokemon Moon (same)
#06 3DS Pokemon Sun (up 1)
#19 PSVR Robinson The Journey (down 2)
#30 PS4 World Of Final Fantasy (down 2)
#77 Vita World Of Final Fantasy (up 3)

PS4: 4 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10

I think what we're seeing now is what I predicted we'd see. The Pro is now fluctuating at a slightly higher position and the PS4s is slowly dropping down the list. The PS4 Pro is going to be the defacto PS4 going forward and the PS4s is going to be for those with less disposable income or the casuals who really don't care (or even know) about the technical advantages of the Pro.

Whatever consoles the XB1 is selling, that aren't currently available on Amazon, are going to have to be selling incredibly well to overturn what has been one of the strongest, if not THE strongest, months of PS4 domination we've seen on Amazon. Regardless of what happens, I think it's safe to assume that sales of the PS4 in Nov will more than make up for any losses in previous months.

 




 

The PS5 Exists. 


Ryng on 23 October 2016

bluedawgs said:

*snip*

Lmao

bluedawgs said:
Gears will probably be >650k and Mafia will do well with 700k

">" means MORE THAN, if you write ">650k", that's MORE THAN 650k, not LESS. first of all.

second, again that logic of using only standalone sales make zero sense when i talk about TOTAL SALES. I expect Gears of War 4 to sell 850k more or less first month INCLUDING bundle, so you want to make a comparation with Uncharted and Halo, you must considering the bundles sales, i mean, is that hard to understand?

As well Uncharted and Halo numbers are lower withouth the bundle, Gears of War too will be lower.

Last, i'm not saying "anything is possible", cause +10 million first month NPD for Gears of course isn't, but you need to understand we are not talking about 10 million but a freaking 850k, saying this number is impossible is silly, and since you are the first who know that i'm into sales discussion for years, maybe you should just believe me here. ;)

Is not like i always want to talk about this, but hell look at Splatoon first thoughts, which were the crazy predictions and how many times was used the "no chance" espression. I talk about this cause is the best example i have but you know how times is happen? many. 

Basically the difference between me and you is that i don't considering my predictions as gold, your < ("<", NOT ">" )650k may as well happen, your just too confidence about this that you believe a mere +>30% more than your prediction is IMPOSSIBLE.



bluedawgs on 23 October 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:

bluedawgs said:

*snip*

Lmao

bluedawgs said:
Gears will probably be >650k and Mafia will do well with 700k

">" means MORE THAN, if you write ">650k", that's MORE THAN 650k, not LESS. first of all.

second, again that logic of using only standalone sales make zero sense when i talk about TOTAL SALES. I expect Gears of War 4 to sell 850k more or less first month INCLUDING bundle, so you want to make a comparation with Uncharted and Halo, you must considering the bundles sales, i mean, is that hard to understand?

As well Uncharted and Halo numbers are lower withouth the bundle, Gears of War too will be lower.

Last, i'm not saying "anything is possible", cause +10 million first month NPD for Gears of course isn't, but you need to understand we are not talking about 10 million but a freaking 850k, saying this number is impossible is silly, and since you are the first who know that i'm into sales discussion for years, maybe you should just believe me here. ;)

Is not like i always want to talk about this, but hell look at Splatoon first thoughts, which were the crazy predictions and how many times was used the "no chance" espression. I talk about this cause is the best example i have but you know how times is happen? many. 

Basically the difference between me and you is that i don't considering my predictions as gold, your < ("<", NOT ">" )650k may as well happen, your just too confidence about this that you believe a mere +>30% more than your prediction is IMPOSSIBLE.

Whatever man we'll check back when we find out what gears sold



jason1637 on 23 October 2016
Ryng_Tolu said:

snip

Looking back at it its impressive how well the halo bundle did. in 2 days it sold close to 100k. If it werent for the bundle Octt 2015 NPD would have been around

PS4- 270K

XB1- 210k



Ariakon on 23 October 2016
GribbleGrunger said:

4 hours since last update:

HARDWARE
#25 PS4 Pro (up 1)*
#32 PSVR Headset (down 9)
 #43 N3DSXL Lime (up 7)
#67 PS4s UC4 Bundle (down 4)
#76 PS4 Fool's Edition (down 2)
#80 PS4 UC4 Bundle (down 5)
 #84 PSVR Launch Bundle (down 2)
  #94 XB1s-1tb Battlefield Bundle (up 3)   

Does not affect this month (*)

SOFTWARE (pre-orders only)
#05 3DS Pokemon Moon (same)
#06 3DS Pokemon Sun (up 1)
#19 PSVR Robinson The Journey (down 2)
#30 PS4 World Of Final Fantasy (down 2)
#77 Vita World Of Final Fantasy (up 3)

PS4: 4 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10
XB1: 1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10

I think what we're seeing now is what I predicted we'd see. The Pro is now fluctuating at a slightly higher position and the PS4s is slowly dropping down the list. The PS4 Pro is going to be the defacto PS4 going forward and the PS4s is going to be for those with less disposable income or the casuals who really don't care (or even know) about the technical advantages of the Pro.

Whatever consoles the XB1 is selling, that aren't currently available on Amazon, are going to have to be selling incredibly well to overturn what has been one of the strongest, if not THE strongest, months of PS4 domination we've seen on Amazon. Regardless of what happens, I think it's safe to assume that sales of the PS4 in Nov will more than make up for any losses in previous months.

 

The one that's mystifying me is that the 500 gb Battlefield One Xbox bundle is down so low. I thought for sure that would be up in the thirties or so by the time it released. Did people just not know about it or something? I thought that would naturally take over the Halo bundle's position, and still think it will, it's just odd that it doesn't seem to be up higher. 

 

Also: a general question for everyone, what do you guys think Rise of the Tomb Raider is going to do this month? I'd guess about the same as its debut on the One, but I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts about it.