I'm a bit upset to see the lack of activity in this thread but today is the second debate so I thought a bump might be worthwhile. Clinton has regained a lead in the polls following the first debate and is currently the favourite to win the election. Ohio, North Carolina and Florida have drifted towards Clinton, who currently holds between a 1-3% lead in each state. The map currently looks something like this:

*Note I used the lighter shades to denote 80-90% chance of winning and <80%. Not sure if that's how it's usually done but that's what I did. Data from fivethirtyeight

I did three simulations just for fun too:

*would have been hiliarious if Alaska went Democrat 3 times in a row, but it didn't happen. : (.
South Dakota somehow went Democrat twice although chances are low, Oregon and RI went Republican once each, very low chance but there's a slim possibility.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

After the second debate can see some major swings in critical states.

Given way this has gone still could swing, but right now Clinton has leads across the board giving her multiple paths to the presidency.

I'm shocked that Clinton is polling as well in Alaska as she is now, the last time Democrats won Alaska was in 1964. McMullin in Utah is very interesting and so far there seems to be a slight possibility that Utah could vote third party, that isn't Gary Johnson too, which I find quite exciting.

I shifted Florida and North Carolina, but not quite on Ohio yet to Clinton. Would still be a decisive win.  Curious stat to me is Utah where third parties could make a significant (above 15%) impact in that state.

Past week is a big change, curious to see if this is a trend of a blip in th enext week or two.  This election is challenging many conventions and could see the map realigning a bit.  My guess is a Democrat victory will either entrench Ruplicans or cause a rethinking of policy and startegy in regards to presidential elections.

Utah would come down to a coin toss if the election were held today.

But it isn't. The notion that Georgia will be blue.

I realize this is an older post, but at no point will Georgia be blue. At least, not before Louisiana and both Carolinas.

I agree and I think a part of it will be determined by how much Trump loses by, if it's a landslide by Clinton then they might be back to the drawing board. If Trump barely loses the election then the Republicans might send out a Trump-like moderate next election. But who knows really, all that's certain is change is in the air.

I do agree with Ohio there, Clinton is not polling as well there as North Carolina or Florida despite all the bad news for Trump. I want to wait on Utah just to see how much momentum McMullin has.

Georgia would be upset, although I wouldn't think about it too much unless Clinton starts to lead multiple polls such as in Arizona. However I do think that the % gap between Clinton and Trump on election day will be smaller than Obama and Romney.

With Utah as close as it is I can see some dems strategically voting for McMullin. Without Utah Trump nearly becomes electorally unviable. On the other hand if Clinton wins it outright Trump would have no path at all.