Some analysis of all the wild card drama...
In the AFC, Miami is the only team in the running for the AFC six seed that can clinch this week, but they're in the worst position of those teams when it comes to tiebreaks (Tennessee and Baltimore both beat Miami, and Denver would handily win the tiebreaker based on SoV). The Dolphins do stand to benefit from the way other team's schedules play out, however. Tennessee is essentially a non-factor for the wild card race at this point; if they win out, they win their division. If they don't, they've got 7 (or more) losses and they're not making it in. Meanwhile, the second biggest winner at the Ravens-Steelers game this week will be the Dolphins, no matter which AFC North team emerges victorious. If Pittsburgh wins, the Ravens have 7 losses and they're no longer a real factor. If Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh becomes the second wildcard team. And the Dolphins can afford to tie with them, as Miami beat Pittsburgh in Week 6.
Despite all this, though, ESPN only projects Miami at a 30% chance to make the playoffs due to their remaining schedule: At Buffalo, vs. New England. How comfortable would you feel taking Matt Moore to go 2-0 or even 1-1 over those two games?
Denver, meanwhile, has been told that they need a "miracle" to make the playoffs, and I suppose if that miracle is suddenly finding an offense, then that's accurate. They don't need a ridiculous amount of outside help, however. As already mentioned, Tennessee and Baltimore will almost assuredly take themselves out of the wild card picture by virtue of de facto division championship games. With that said, Denver definitely has a vested interest in Pittsburgh winning that AFC North showdown on Christmas Day. If Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore, and then wins the next week to finish at 10-6, Denver would be eliminated from contention by virtue of a worse conference record.
Assuming Pittsburgh wins, Denver's path to the wild card is pretty simple; somehow figure out how to beat both Kansas City and Oakland, and then hope Miami loses one of its final two games. If that happens, the Broncos are in.
Pittsburgh is a more likely wild card team than either Tennessee or Baltimore. That requires a loss to Baltimore, a win over the Browns, and then two Miami losses. Barring the NFL equivalent of the apocalypse, Tennessee and Baltimore will either win their division or miss the playoffs.
Just for funsies, here's what has to happen for Buffalo (still technically alive) to make the playoffs. The Bills must win their final two games (obviously) against Miami and the Jets. Miami must lose its week 17 finale against New England. Denver must lose its final two games against Kansas City and Oakland, as the Broncos own the conference tiebreaker over Buffalo. Baltimore must lose its final two games against Pittsburgh and Cincinatti, again, due to Buffalo's horrendous conference record. Both Houston and Tennessee must lose their Week 16 matchups, so that the loser of the Week 17 Texans-Titans matchup has 8 losses and can't beat Buffalo on a conference (Houston) or SoV (Tennessee) tiebreaker.
Over on the NFC Side, Green Bay is essentially the equivalent of Baltimore/Tennessee; they're either winning their division, or they're missing the playoffs. Detroit, meanwhile, is a much more interesting proposition. The Lions lose to the Bucs on SoV, so if they lose to Green Bay and don't win the NFC North, they need to hope for another Tampa loss and a Washington loss. And speaking of those Bucs, Tampa Bay can reach the playoffs if they win out and the Redskins lose once. Washington has the simplest path, three wins and in, although their last game is against the Giants. Redskins might have an interest in rooting for Dallas to win next week, as the Giants have no incentive to win the season finale in Washington if Dallas puts the division title out of reach.
So remember when I said Minnesota was probably going to the playoffs? Here's how they're doing it. They'll win their final two games, at Green Bay and against Chicago. With the season sweep, Minnesota will have the tiebreaker over the Packers. Washington will lose two more games, one to the Giants and one to the Bears. Tampa will lose at New Orleans next week. Houston will then win its final two games, winning the AFC South and giving Minnesota the slightest of edges in the SoV tiebreaker, just enough to push them into the playoffs (or alternatively Tampa could just lose both of its last two games).
Totally going to happen.
