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Forums - Gaming - Console Market not contracting, becoming more focused

Moonlighter said:
I don't know if I'm the only one but sometimes I like when there's a physical license. A digital license can't be sold to anyone else and they are tied to your account. They both have their pros and cons though.

Yh, i hate that about digital games. But its still a God send to me. For where i stay the only way i can get games is by importing. $60 for game, $15 shipping then a whopping $40 in tax duties. So each physical game will actually cost me $115 and I get it within a week. Or I could just buy from the PS store and get it immediately and pay nothing extra. 

zorg1000 said:

Ok, not saying its untrue, just that its irrelevent to Cloudmans point, which is that gaming should be open to all demographics instead of doubling down on "hardcore" gamers.

I think I addressed his point. It's a changing and different market. You look at it as doubling down on the hardcore, whereas in truth its nothing more than focusing on your primary market as opposed to spreading yourself too thin and risk not being successful in anything. Gaming is open to all demographics, but it's becoming clear that console gaming is for a specific type of gaming demographic. As is PC gaming, as is mobile gaming....etc. There is nothing wrong with a company focusing on the market that they thrive in. I have never bought or paid for a game on my smartphone. And probably never will. That's not saying there aren't tens of millions of people that play games on their smartphones. it's all gaming, just different demographics. I don't know why some expect consoles to be a jack of all trades in gaming. 

Einsam_Delphin said:

Well somebody had to of, it didn't just happen out of nowhere. I recall third partys wanting more and more powerful hardware, and yet now look at them, Konami basically gave up and Sega thinks mobile is gonna save them. I know rising development cost isn't the sole reason, but it's definitely a factor. Also, Nintendo will likely never do that because there's really no need to. You don't have to have top of the line graphics for people to buy your games.

But I kinda don't have a choice if I want to play a game online or experience the full story of a game after half of it has been locked behind dlc.

Not really. Devs always ask for more power so they can not just do more, but do more easier. What happened was HD gaming. That shit is just expensive. And it took most of the industry by surprise. What is considered as an average game today is just flat out really expensive to make. Like movies, AAA games are the equivalent of blockbuster movies and they too command a high price tag. There is still room for smaller cheaper games tho aka indie titles. 

And Nintendo will, eventually. Just look at the new Zelda.... yes it's not Horizon, FF15 or Either 3 level good, but it's pretty darn good looking. 

Play a game online yes, I'll give you that. But this notion of having to pay to get the full expericne of the game is just untrue. There will always be those (capcom) that abuse the concept of DLC, but for the most part of the industry it's just to add value to an already existing game and longevity. Not to complete the story. in all honestly, DLC has more to do with the used game market than it does with them wanting to take more of your money. 

SvennoJ said:

The ps3 was an extreme case and mostly showed that subsidizing a movie player doesn't make you money in the short term. (And still debatable whether it was worth winning the format war quickly although I'm glad they did)

I'm curious to see where this goes. For now the only effect it has had on me is that I spend a lot less on games. The HDD is full anyway, I'm kinda done with buying unfinished games at launch and my backlog is looking just as good if not better than new games coming out. NMS, GT Sport, Zelda and perhaps Horizon are the only purchases I have in mind for the next 6 months. Not woth buying a Neo or NX for. A big difference to spending well over $1000 on games yearly until a couple years ago. Perhaps I've finally fallen out of the target age demographic.

The PS3 was not the only of such failures though. Sega and Panasonic had equally bad failures where they thought giving the best hardware regardless of price was something they could do. As bad as it was for Sony, they really dodged a bullet with the PS3. And considering the billions they lost I doubt anyone can blame them for going about things differently this time. 

I too don't buy nearly as much games as I used to buy. But I feel that's just cause I have fsr less time on my hands than I sued to have so when I do game it has to be something that's extremely worth my time. In any given year not more than 6-8 games seem to make that cut. 

Conina said:

You don't read much in PC hardware forums, do you? ;)

Well, we don't have GPU sales charts on the front page of this site or NPD threads and Japanese tracking over GPU sales do we?

So yh, its nowhere near as bad. 



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Mummelmann said:

This development towards paying for every scrap of gaming and needing paid subscriptions to get the most out of your software, is not generally good for consumers. It's an adaptive model that came as a response to the market branching out and production costs rising steadily in the past decade or so, and it's costing you and me a lot more, sometimes for inferior experiences at that. Not to mention the prevalence of huge technical and security issues since the PS3/360 era.
And there will be a general market contraction, you can call it becoming more focused if you choose, but the fact remains that the combined PS4 + One installed will likely be considerably smaller than the PS3 + 360 base, the same goes for overall software sales.
Gaming has grown, but console gaming has shrunk, there's a connection of course, the fringe customers have many options now and consoles are actually less streamlined than they used to be in the PS2 era.

The market has evolved but the thread title is downright false; the console market is contracting, not only will it be smaller than in the 7th gen by a huge measure, but even if you take away the convenience segment consumers for the Wii user base, even the 6th gen is a lot bigger, even bigger than the 7th gen.
The console market is contracting, no amount of semantics will change that, but I agree with the overall message of the OP, even if the thread title is faulty.

But you also have to take into account how long the 7th generation was in comparison tot his one. The 7th gen was IMO a standout generation that in its form will be hard to reproduvced if ever. We practically had almost 2 generation in one after the HD twins decided to adopt the motion gaming gimmicks as their own.

Add to it the fact that the systems themselves where far more powerfull at launch in comparison to PCs, than todays consoles, so they could last longer on the market, and it starts to become obvious that the 7th generation is by no means the norm that was set or which after a generation should be judged.

Yes, the things you can buy with the same ammount of money then what you could during the 6th gen, is a smaller number, but lets be honest, with the current service-oriented approach to console gaming is pretty hard to really grasp just how much money they actually make. Even if big publishers have fallen there are far more people working currently in the console industry then any generation before.



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

Intrinsic said:
SvennoJ said:

I'm curious to see where this goes. For now the only effect it has had on me is that I spend a lot less on games. The HDD is full anyway, I'm kinda done with buying unfinished games at launch and my backlog is looking just as good if not better than new games coming out. NMS, GT Sport, Zelda and perhaps Horizon are the only purchases I have in mind for the next 6 months. Not woth buying a Neo or NX for. A big difference to spending well over $1000 on games yearly until a couple years ago. Perhaps I've finally fallen out of the target age demographic.

I too don't buy nearly as much games as I used to buy. But I feel that's just cause I have fsr less time on my hands than I sued to have so when I do game it has to be something that's extremely worth my time. In any given year not more than 6-8 games seem to make that cut. 

Just when I thought nothing interesting was coming anymore for me I happened on Abzu and Bound in the PS store, Play 2016 promotion. Pre-ordered them, Abzu is out tomorrow, Bound on the 16th. They look like games I can complete and pretty unique and relaxing. Although I expect there will be the usual crowd arguing they're not games lol.

Bound https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE37l6RvF-c


Abzu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2G54w8H4oM


Modern gaming isn't all that bad after all, something for everyone.
At $16 (CAD) I give in to digital downloads. If it's good I'll buy the physical release later if it comes out. KSP at $40 can stay in the ps store though. Funny, Steam hiked the price up to $44 CAD (was on sale for $27 for a long time) I still don't think it's worth more than $20 after playing the demo.



Intrinsic said:

 Not really. Devs always ask for more power so they can not just do more, but do more easier. What happened was HD gaming. That shit is just expensive. And it took most of the industry by surprise. What is considered as an average game today is just flat out really expensive to make. Like movies, AAA games are the equivalent of blockbuster movies and they too command a high price tag. There is still room for smaller cheaper games tho aka indie titles. 

And Nintendo will, eventually. Just look at the new Zelda.... yes it's not Horizon, FF15 or Either 3 level good, but it's pretty darn good looking. 

Play a game online yes, I'll give you that. But this notion of having to pay to get the full expericne of the game is just untrue. There will always be those (capcom) that abuse the concept of DLC, but for the most part of the industry it's just to add value to an already existing game and longevity. Not to complete the story. in all honestly, DLC has more to do with the used game market than it does with them wanting to take more of your money. 

 

But still isn't the average PS4 game more costly to make than the average PS3 game? And 3rd partys were eagerly rushing for HD aswell, so still they brought it on themselves. Not saying we shoulda never gone HD, but they could have waited, HDTVs weren't even the norm yet at the start of 7th gen. Though it's great that we have indies, but the problem is there's hardly any leeway for major developers. It just doesn't seem right that a game can sell a million or two copies but be considered a financial failure.

I mean Nintendo will never have a game that's up to par with the current generation's standard on a technical level. That's guaranteed since their hardware is always underpowered.

Okay yes DLC is not inherently always bad because it can most definitely be a great thing (Mario Kart 8), but there are definitely times where the line is crossed (Fire Emblem Fates). Still I guess most DLC, atleast that I've seen, isn't bad, so it wasn't fair of me to imply it's straight up anti-consumer.



SvennoJ said:

Just when I thought nothing interesting was coming anymore for me I happened on Abzu and Bound in the PS store, Play 2016 promotion. Pre-ordered them, Abzu is out tomorrow, Bound on the 16th. They look like games I can complete and pretty unique and relaxing. Although I expect there will be the usual crowd arguing they're not games lol.

Tomorrow???!! I totally forgot about it. I ususlly go on media blackout for any game I intend on getting after watching a trailer or two of the game. Or three or four :)

So everytime I saw abzu on my YouTube sub feed I never bothered to click. I knew there was a reason I was looking forward to tomorrow. Just didn't know why lol.

And all those "not a real gsme" folks can......... I'm just gonna behave myself. I don't think I've gotten banned this year yet. 



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More accurately, we are just seeing a return to a normal market model for consoles, where there is a clear leader and the others trail behind. Last gen was a fluke. We had the high price of the PS3, and poor ports for about a year or so, cause many PS2 gamers to switch to the 360, so that group was split. And Wii basically brought in a lot of casuals, but they have moved on. So, what we are left with is a market similar to the 6th gen. In that gen, the Big 3 sold about 205M consoles. I think this gen will be very similar. Probably 125M-135M for the PS4. 40M-50M for the XBO. And 15M-25M (if they drop the price to $199 this year) for the Wii U.



Super post. The point about the subscription is very good too. I remember last gen a lot of people had ps3s and 360's and played both online. Now most of those just have the ps4 and wouldn't be paying for live monthly on top of psn. So they won't even consider an x1.



Intrinsic said:
  1. Another big thing is the fact that both the PS4 and XB1 requires a subscription service to get the most out of your console. What this really does is that it prevents people from investing in multiple platforms. While at the same thing making them become more entrenched in their chosen platform. Which probably ties in to why we are seeing the start of mid gen refreshes. 

 

Is there something missing? The correlation at least is.

Those "mid gen refreshes" are purely an adaption to the changing environment of the market. It's no coincidence that MS and Sony have very similar hardware solutions, chosen with the intent to shorten the cycle. We don't have a cell chip in the PS4, because it would be a waste of time and recources, outright uneconomical. The rapid advances throughout the whole spectrum of entertainment technologies require them to adjust.



Hunting Season is done...

Really? The console market has strunk a lot, even compared to the 6th ten. During the 6th gen, we saw around 200 million console sales. This generation will probably barely scrape past what the PS2 did. Both Nintendo and Sony's consoles will do worse than their 6th geh counterparts, and the Xbox one will probably barely pull in half of what the 360 did. While the 7th gen was overinflated, the loss is still dramatic. It's like pulling out one of the three console manufacturers from the business altogether. And I expect the 9th gen to be even worse, with an almost total collapse from the handheld market, and likely some additional losses from all three console makers. The mobile market is taking over the casual side of the market, and many core gamers are either moving to the pc or pulling out altogether; and the bad business practices of game publishers like Ubisoft and Activision isn't helping. I hope for the best, but I just can't expect an improvement in the market.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Really? The console market has strunk a lot, even compared to the 6th ten. During the 6th gen, we saw around 200 million console sales. This generation will probably barely scrape past what the PS2 did. Both Nintendo and Sony's consoles will do worse than their 6th geh counterparts, and the Xbox one will probably barely pull in half of what the 360 did. While the 7th gen was overinflated, the loss is still dramatic. It's like pulling out one of the three console manufacturers from the business altogether. And I expect the 9th gen to be even worse, with an almost total collapse from the handheld market, and likely some additional losses from all three console makers. The mobile market is taking over the casual side of the market, and many core gamers are either moving to the pc or pulling out altogether; and the bad business practices of game publishers like Ubisoft and Activision isn't helping. I hope for the best, but I just can't expect an improvement in the market.

Pretty much agree with what you have to say here. Alot of people like to point fingers at Nintendo and assume they are the only one's seeing declines but really it's happening to the other two as well. Recatching the sales of the PS2 days will be hard for the PS4, and given just how similar the X1 and PS4 libraries are, its going to be difficult for the X1 to make a huge splash. And while I feel as though DLC and paying for online are raking in some significant money, it can only help so much if console R&D and game development costs keep rising fast. 

I've actually thought about this alot and have really just figured that people just have so many ways to entertain themselves these days. Mobile devices and the Internet can keep a person pretty occupied. Look back when the PS2 came out and you will see that really outside of having the Internet (maybe) and basic movies and music there wasn't much to electronically in our home. Fast forward to today and well there's countless things to do. And while I wouldn't say that core gamers are pulling out of consoles all together like that, PC does seem to be offering a viable alternative and could be eating the lunch of the console makers somewhat.